Early Look

Thursday, August 14, 2025

U.S. futures are down ever so slightly, dipping after the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite both ended at fresh record peaks for a second straight session on Wednesday, while the Smallcap Russell 2000 outperformed for a second day, continuing to benefit from expectations of an upcoming interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. All eleven S&P sectors closed high yesterday, but the tech sector lagged, with normal large cap leaders NVDA, META, MSFT, NFLX declining on profit taking, as investors rotated into beaten up healthcare, materials and consumer discretionary sectors. U.S. rate futures, meanwhile, are pricing in a more than 95% chance of a 25-bps cut in September and as much as a 7% probability of a 50-bp rate decline (up from just 3% earlier on Wednesday), while the July PPI inflation reading at 8:30 am today will give markets another look at inflation after CPI on Tuesday eased investor fears. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index tumbled -625 points or 1.45% to 42,649, the Shanghai Index fell -17 points to 3,666, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -94 points to 25,519. In Europe, the German DAX is up 94 points to 24,279, while the FTSE 100 is down a few points to 9,158. Bitcoin got a boost from mounting rate-cut bets too, reaching a new record high on Wednesday evening of $124,480, but has since reversed, now down -1.44% at $121,150.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 463.66 points, or 1.04%, to 44,922.27
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 31.24 points, or 0.14%, to 21,713.14
• The Russell 2000 Index jumped 45.28 points, or 1.98%, to 2,328.06

• 8:30 AM EST                Continuing Claims…est.1.974M
• 8:30 AM ET                  Producer Price Index (PPI) headline M/M for July…est. +0.2% (prior 0%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Producer Price Index (PPI) headline Y/Y for July…est. +2.5% (prior +2.3%)
• 8:30 AM ET PPI Core: Ex Food & Energy M/M for July…est. +0.2% (prior 0%)
• 8:30 AM ET PPI Core: Ex Food & Energy Y/Y for July…est. +2.9% (prior +2.6%)
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AMAT BNGO CELC CODX DARE DFLI DMRC EVLVGLOB KULR NU PIII QFIN RNXT SNDK STRT STRZ TMC VUZI WYY

• British goods exports to the United States fell to their lowest level in more than three years in June. Sales of British goods to the United States fell to 3.9 billion pounds ($5.3 billion) during the month, down by 0.7 billion pounds from May and about 20% lower than a monthly average of 4.9 billion pounds in 2024.

• Ibotta Inc. (IBTA) shares fell; Q2 adj EPS $0.49 vs es.t $0.19, adj EBITDA $17.9Mm vs est. $20.16Mm on $86Mm revs vs est. $90.52Mm; guides Q3 revs $79-85Mm vs est. $101.65Mm and adj EBITDA $9.5-13.5Mm vs est. $30.82Mm with 14% adj EBITDA mgn at midpoint.
• Noodles & Company (NDLS) cuts FY25 revenue view to $487M-$495M from $503M-$512M (est. $509.46M) while guides FY25 comparable restaurant sales up 2.5%-4% and FY25 capital expenditures $12M-$13M, after reporting both top and bottom line Q2 results below consensus.
• Red Robin Gourmet (RRGB) Q2 adj EPS $0.26 vs. est. (-$0.15); Q2 revs $283.7M vs. est. $281.7M; Q2 adj Ebitda $22.4M vs. est. $17,4M; 2Q same-restaurant revenue down (-3.2%) while sees same-restaurant sales down (-3%-4%) for remainder of FY25; cuts FY25 view to revs $1.2B.
• Tapestry (TPR) Q4 adj EPS $1.04 tops consensus $1.02 on revs $1.7B vs. est. $1.68B; guides FY26 EPS $5.30-$5.45, below consensus $5.48 and sees FY26 revenue approaching $7.2B, vs. consensus $7.1B; says EPS guidance includes the negative impact of incremental tariffs and duties of over 60c.

• Intuitive Machines Inc (LUNR) announces $250 mln convertible notes offering.
• Spire Global (SPIR) guides Q2 revs $18M-$19M vs. est. $18.8M; maintains FY25 revenue view of $85M-$95M, vs. consensus $89.1M; Q2 Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities as of June 30, 2025, totaled $117.6M.
• Solventum (SOLV) 8.8M share Spot Secondary priced at $73.65.
• Thyssenkrupp (TKAMY) cut its full-year sales and investment forecasts citing weak demand for its products as tariffs disrupt global trade in autos, machines and building materials; now expects sales to fall by 5% to 7% in FY, down from prior view for sales to drop by up to 3%; Investment plans were cut to between 1.4 billion and 1.6 billion euros ($1.6-$1.9 billion), from 1.6-1.8 billion euros.
• The Trump administration is proposing nearly $1 billion in funding to speed the development of U.S. critical minerals and materials, used in everything from electric vehicle batteries to semiconductors, the Energy Department said on Wednesday.

• Dlocal Ltd. (DLO) Q2 EPS $0.14 vs est. $0.13, adj EBITDA $70.1Mm vs est. $53.9Mm, adj EBITDA mgn 27% on revs $256.5Mm vs est. $229.7Mm, gr mgn 39%; sees FY revs +30-40% vs est. +28.46%, TPV growth +40-50% and adj EBITDA +40-50% vs est. +21.53%.
• Robinhood Markets (HOOD) July 2025 operating data showed total platform assets at end of July were $298B, funded customers reach 26.7M in July, platform assets total $298B in July, equity trading volumes reach $209.1B for July and app crypto notional trading volumes reach $16.8B in July, up 217% Y/Y.

• Accuray Inc. (ARAY) Q4 EPS $0.01 vs est. ($0.01) on revs $127.543Mm vs est. $123.8Mm; guides FY revs $471-$485Mm vs est. $455.13MM and adj EBITDA $31-$35Mm vs est. $21.59Mm.
• Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO) Q2 EPS (-$0.23) vs est. (-$0.27); ends qtr with 302.6Mm cash and equivalents.
• Aquestive Therapeutics Inc (AQST) prices 21.25M shares at $4.00 per share.
• Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) announced that it has elected to receive approximately $50 million worth of Arrowhead common stock and approximately $50 million in cash from Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT), satisfying the payment of a $100 million milestone owed to Arrowhead.
• Codexis (CDXS) Q2 basic EPS loss (-$0.16) while delivered strong revenues of $15.3M vs. $8M y/y, primarily due to variability in customer manufacturing schedules and timing in clinical trial progression, which impacted Pharma Biocatalysis order volumes.
• Kodiak Sciences (KOD) Q2 EPS ($1.03) vs est. ($1.07); end Q2 with $104.2Mm cash and equivalents.
• Oncology Institute (TOI) Q2 EPS ($0.15) vs est. ($0.13) on revs $119.8Mm vs est. $114.6Mm; guides FY revs $460-480Mm vs est. $465.10Mm, gr profit $73-82Mm, adj EBITDA ($17Mm) to ($8Mm) vs est. ($12.2Mm).
• Verastem (VSTM) announced positive, updated safety and efficacy data and late-breaking presentation details of partner GenFleet Therapeutics’ Phase 1/2 study in China of GFH375, an oral KRAS G12D inhibitor, known as VS-7375 outside of China, in advanced non-small cell lung cancer patients with a KRAS G12D mutation.

• Coherent Corp. (COHR) announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to sell its aerospace and defense business to Advent for $400M; Q4 adj EPS $1.00 vs. est. $0.91; Q4 adj net income $192M vs. est. $145.9M and revs beat at $1.529B vs. est. $1.508B.
• Google (GOOGL) is investing an additional $9B in Oklahoma within the next two years in cloud and AI infrastructure. The company will build a new data center campus in Stillwater and expand its Pryor facility to bolster U.S. AI and cloud capacity.
• Hon Hai reported unexpectedly strong profit and projected accelerating sales growth from its key AI server business. The firm, also known as Foxconn, assembles Nvidia servers and Apple iPhones.
• Klaviyo (KVYO) 6.5M share Spot Secondary priced at $30.22.
• Chinese companies fall after hedge fund Bridgewater Associates exits positions according to 13F filings: Bridgewater exited its position in Alibaba (BABA), Yum China (YUMC), Baidu (BIDU), Nio (NIO) as well as exited positions in TAL Education (TAL). Bridgewater boosted its stake in U.S. tech firms Nvidia (NVDA), Meta Platforms (META), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT).