Closing Recap

Wednesday, August 13, 2025

U.S. stock markets keep up their record pace, with new highs today for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, but it was notable outperformance in the Smallcap Russell 2000 for a second straight day on rising expectations of interest rates cuts by the Fed in September following the most recent CPI inflation report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also outperformed, boost today by underperforming 2025 stocks in the index (UNH, NKE, SHW). A combination of easing global trade tensions, less impact from tariffs, rising rate cut expectations, and general upside momentum has pushed stocks higher for 4-straight months. Next up, the producer price index (PPI) inflation report Thursday morning, then Retail Sales, Import Prices and Industrial Production on Friday and the President Trump/Putin’s meeting on Friday. NYSE market breadth strong all day to the tune of about 3:1 advancers leading decliners with nearly all eleven S&P sectors rising today, led by Healthcare, Materials and Consumer Discretionary, all up 1.4% or better while market leader Technology (XLK) lagged behind large cap tech profit taking (NVDA, NFLX, MSFT, META, GOOGL). No major economic data today; crypto prices jump again (Bitcoin/Ethereum), the dollar falls along with oil as gold prices rise. Just another summer day of slow news, no data, and global markets melting higher, ending near the best levels of the day.

• Earlier, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its closely watched monthly report that it now forecasts oil supply growth of 2.5 million barrels a day this year and 1.9 million the next, from earlier estimates of 2.1 million and 1.3 million barrels a day, respectively. The revision follows OPEC+’s latest bumper output hike, though countries outside of the alliance remain the primary drivers of growth. The IEA raised its estimates for OPEC+ supply growth by 370,000 barrels a day for this year and by 520,000 barrels a day for the next.
• Treasury yields were broadly lower, on both the long end and short end of the curve that are more in tune with Fed rate moves as Wall Street expectations are building for rate cuts in coming months. Treasury Secretary Bessent said in an interview that there could be a series of rate cut bets ahead. Fed funds futures are pricing in a 98% chance for a 25-bps cut with Wall Street hopes for a 50-bps cut. The 2-year yield was down -4bps to 3.69% while the 10-yr yield fell -5.7bps to 4.237%.
• The U.S. dollar index (DXY) remained softer on the rate cut speculation, slipping to 97.62 before inching up to 97.83 as the euro and yen both advanced. December gold prices advanced $9.30 or 0.27% to settle at $3,408.30, getting a boost on the weaker dollar and rising rate cut speculation. Gold snapped a modest a two-day losing streak and made it six out of the past nine trading sessions that gold finished higher. Giving gold support were comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calling for a rate cut of half a percentage point in September.

• In Footwear & Apparel Retail: GIL agreed to buy HBI for about $2.2 billion in cash and stock, confirming reports by both the WSJ and Bloomberg the day prior; ONON was downgraded to Underperform at Jefferies after results on Tuesday saying while ON has become a strong challenger in athletic footwear, rising to >2% global share, they believe growth will normalize beginning in ’26. LULU shares strong all day up over 3%.
• In Discount Retail: Truist said based on their Truist Card Data, it is raising its ests. for Buy-rated DLTR and OLLI as well as Hold-rated DG, FIVE, and TGT, but slightly lowering its ests. for Buy-rated LOW. Further, Truist Card Data suggests that sales at WMT were in-line/+, HD sales were ~in-line and BBY in-line/-. Overall, Q2 should be solid for most of Truist’s cos, but based on Truist Card Data, comparisons are about to become more difficult for most retailers (last July was awful) and tariff risk remains.
• In Specialty Retail: PETS shares fell after saying CEO Sandra Campos and CFO Robyn D’Elia have resigned from their positions with the company; COOK was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at B Riley and cut tgt to $1.50 from $3 saying the company’s grill sales, which represent over 50% of its total revenue, re-inflected negatively in Q2 and the declines are expected to persist through at least Q4
• In Restaurants: CAVA shares tumbled on results and guidance as Q2 EPS beat but revs of $280.6M missed the consensus est. $285.6M on weaker same restaurant sales growth 2.1% vs est. growth of 6.47%; also guides FY same store restaurant sales growth 4%-6% vs est. growth of 7.67%. EAT shares jump after the Chili’s owner posted a Q4 top and bottom-line beat, announced an additional $400M share repurchase – Q4 revs $1.46B topped ests and was above the $1.21B y/y as comp sales at Chili’s rose 24% and guided above for the year.
• In Food: AMZN announces major grocery expansion: tens of millions of Prime members can now shop perishable groceries alongside the rest of amazon’s same-day selection with fast, free delivery; said Prime members get free same-day delivery on orders over $25 and non-prime members pay $12.99 fee for same-day delivery (shares of WMT, CART, KR saw weakness on the news). In beverages (STZ, SAM, TAP, BUD), Reuters noted alcohol consumption among adults in the U.S. is at the lowest level on record, a survey by analytics firm Gallup showed that about 54% Americans reported drinking alcohol, compared with 58% in 2024 and 62% in 2023.

• In Learnings sector: KLC shares tumbled after posting disappointing Q2 results citing a softer-than-anticipated enrollment and lowering their outlook for the full year, which prompted a downgrade at Barclays.

• In Nuclear/Utility: OKLO was selected for three projects under U.S. department of energy’s reactor pilot program; LEU shares fell after files to sell $650M of Convertible Senior Notes due 2032

• In Financial Services: HRB reported mixed FQ4 results where margins and FY2026 guidance missed expectations; Opco noted volume declined 0.9% y/y vs +1.7% industry growth; FY25 total revenue/adjusted EBITDA/EPS grew 4%/1%/6% year/year, respectively.
• In Insurance: BRO was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo as thinks organic should trend below peers in the near-term given the overconcentration to the south / property and prefer other brokers reporting stronger organic growth. Cantor initiated insurance today with Overweight on AJG, AON, MMC, neutral on WTW, RYAN in brokers; OW on HIG, TRV, WRB and Neutral AIG, CB, KNSL in commercial lines and Overweight on LMND, GSHD and Neutral on ALL, PGR, TRUP in Personal lines.
• In Finance: Kobeissi Letter tweeted on “X” that “US serious delinquencies are skyrocketing: The share of credit card debt that is delinquent 90+ days reached 12.3% in Q2 2025, the highest since Q2 2011. This is just 1.4 percentage points below the all-time high. Furthermore, 5.0% of auto loans are now seriously delinquent, only 0.3 percentage points below the record set in Q4 2010. Meanwhile, student loan serious delinquencies spiked 9.4 percentage points over the last 2 quarters to 10.2%, the highest since Q1 2020. US consumers are falling behind on debt payments at rates rarely seen before."

• GBIO shares jumped after saying they would explore strategic alternatives, including a sale, merger, or asset deal, with TD Cowen advising and announcing a restructuring with about a 90% workforce reduction by end of October (follows weaker Q2 results with sales of $765K missing the $3.1M estimate).
• IBRX shares rose after the immunotherapy company said early findings from its Phase I trial for lymphoma patients showed highly promising complete responses; said the trial evaluated the safety and efficiency of its CD19 CAR-NK natural killer cell therapy.
• INSM was downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley on full valuation following BRINSUPRI approval as expected, raise PT to $126 (from $112). The approval of BRINSUPRI Marks a significant milestone in Insmed’s evolution toward becoming a leading player in rare lung diseases.
• LLY launched an injector pen for Mounjaro, its weight-loss drug, for 14,000 rupees, or $160, for its starting dose in India – Reuters reported. Also lots of insider purchases per SEC filings last night as CEO Dave Ricks bought $1M worth of stock in the open market. Chief Scientific Officer Dan Skovronsky spent $643,000 on shares. A pair of board members also bought stock, as did another executive.
• VOR said Telitacicept achieved primary endpoint in phase 3 clinical study for primary Sjogren’s disease with Telitacicept, a dual baff/April inhibitor.

• In Homebuilders: Shares of DHI, BZH, LEN, TOL, PHM among other homebuilders rallying behind a drop in Treasury yields and rising rate cut expectations.

• In Government IT Services: CACI was double upgraded to Buy from Sell at Goldman Sachs (PT to $544 from $407) and downgraded PSN to Neutral from Buy within a still cautious Government IT & Services. The firm said CACI is the best positioned company in the Gov IT & services space since the change in the administration, with a strong TTM funded book-to-bill and expanding margins due to its pivot to advanced technologies. Conversely, they downgrade PSN due to the uncertainty surrounding the company’s growth prospects, as the dynamics of its contracts rolling off create an implied acceleration in the core in 2H25 that could be difficult to achieve.

• In Materials: CMP was downgraded to Underweight at JP Morgan saying that Compass Minerals should report a year of roughly (6%) lower EBITDA versus F2024 (fiscal year ends September). Compass began the fiscal year slowly because of weak snowfall patterns.

• In Software: SPNS shares jump after private equity firm Advent International has struck an agreement to acquire Sapiens International Corp., an Israeli software provider to the insurance industry, for about $2.5B as Sapiens shareholders will receive $43.50 per share. INTA shares jumped on results following an across the board beat in F4Q, initial outlook for FY26 that came in ahead of the street on the top/bottom lines, and the initiation of a $150mn share repurchase plan
• In Data Centers/AI: CRWV shares slumped after results the recent IPO delivered solid Q2 results, beating on revenue ($1.21B vs $1.08B consensus) and adj-OI ($199.8M vs $159.4M), driven by robust compute demand in a continued supply-constrained env’t; though Guidance was mixed with revenue outlook higher-than-consensus for Q3 and FY25, but margin forecasts were falling short. TSSI shares fell after announcing a stock offering. VRT, NBIS shares declined in sympathy with CRWV data center earnings reaction as well as news the CC announced the successful qualification of its Opteon™ two-phase immersion cooling fluid by Samsung Electronics.
• In Optical: LITE was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Bank America and raised tgt to $135 from $78 after results saying outsized chip and module demand could pull-in 600M/$750M sales targets 2-3 quarters early. As margin accretive components scale (EMLs, OCS, CPO), the firm sees an earlier path for GMs to enter the >40% range by C2H’26. Note COHR and FN earnings are still expected in coming days for optical space.
• In Security Software: PANW was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank and raised tgt to $220 from $200 given its thoughts on the health of the business, quality of its leadership, and forward prospects for the announced acquisition of CyberArk. Deutsche Bank also noted its partner survey for the broader security sector ahead of Q2 off-cycle earnings suggest a mixed quarter for the off-cycle cyber companies within its coverage. The firm said there wasn’t a clear outperformer, unlike last quarter where CRWD was the standout from DBAB’s survey results, though PANW and ZS appear to have had the most notable uptick.
• In 3D sector: SSYS shares slipped after guiding FY revs in the range of $550M-$560M, down from prior outlook of $570M-$585M; also cut its FY adj EPS view to $0.13-$0.16 from $0.30-$0.37 prior and also cuts FY gross margins forecast to 46.7%-47% range from 48.8%-49.2% prior.
• In Hardware: Bloomberg reported that AAPL plans for an artificial intelligence comeback include an "ambitious slate of new devices," including robots, a lifelike version of Siri, and smart home devices. A tabletop virtual companion robot, targeted for 2027, is the centerpiece of the AI strategy, the report said. A smart speaker with a display is slated to arrive next year as part of a push into entry-level smart-home products, the report added.
• In Quantum Compute: RGTI reported earnings and said it remains on schedule to deliver a 100-qubit multi-chiplet QPU with 99.5% two-qubit gate fidelity by year-end; company added $350M to the balance sheet during the period and now has $570M in cash
• In Semi’s: for NVDA, AMD, Reuters reported U.S. authorities have secretly placed location tracking devices in targeted shipments of advanced chips they see as being at high risk of illegal diversion to China, according to two people with direct knowledge. The measures aim to detect AI chips being diverted to destinations which are under U.S. export restrictions and apply only to select shipments under investigation, the people said. AMD shares outperformed after a report by Fubon noted AMD and AVGO will be the fastest growing CoWoS customers for TSM will use CoWoS for both CPU and GPU in 2026.