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Market Will Test the Breakout Today
www.oneoption.com
A tame CPI lead to a market breakout Tuesday and a hot PPI will test that breakout today.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – Inflation has been subsiding for many months and that was confirmed by the .2% CPI reading Tuesday. As prices retreat, the Fed has more breathing room to cut interest rates in September and the market is counting on that. The odds of a 25 basis point rate cut in a month are at 100% based on the Fed Fund futures.
The table was set for a nice grind higher until the PPI was released this morning. A reading of .2% was expected and the PPI spiked to .9%. Even when food and energy are stripped out the reading was still up .9%. Analysts will be scouring the release to determine the source of this big move. Was this an outlier or a sign of things to come?
Initial jobless claims were 224K and that is inline with expectations. This number is questionable because we’ve seen weak employment numbers the last three months. If people are losing their jobs this number should be increasing.
Was the market breakout Tuesday legitimate? We’ll find out today. Breakouts to new highs are often tested and SPY $642 is a critical level. If the market tests that level and it bounces off of it, buyers are still in control and the breakout will be confirmed. If the market plunges right through $642 and it closes below it, the breakout has failed and we could see more selling.
The macro news has been weak and the market keeps grinding higher. There is a disconnect between what should be happening and what is actually playing out (price). I can’t account for the disparity so I am just going to follow the technicals.
I’ve been keeping my trade duration very short-term and I have very little overnight exposure. The outcome today will provide clarity. Will the market discount today’s bad number just like it has all of the others or will this news spark a wave of profit taking?
Gaps down have provided great opportunities for longs. This was a surprise and the “miss” was substantial. After the initial 30 point drop, the S&P 500 has not moved much. I am NOT expecting an early bounce. This was unexpected and traders were positioned for a benign (or low) number. There is going to be some adjusting and that will keep selling pressure on the market for the first hour. If support forms around SPY $642 for and hour it will be a sign that buyers are dismissing this as a “one off” reading. If the market easily breaches $642 and if the selling pressure remains steady, we could have a bearish trend day. I don’t know which outcome we will get so I am going to patiently wait for signs one way or the other.
You should have watchlists for strong stocks. This is your chance to see how well they hold up. If we bounce, you will have an excellent entry point. Shorts have been more difficult to find and if we start leaking lower you will want to start adding some of those stocks to a watchlist.
Support is SPY $642 and resistance is the low from yesterday and the high from yesterday.
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