Daily Commentary: August 08, 2025

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Teflon Market

Posted by Pete Stolcers on August 08
www.oneoption.com

Weak economic news just slides right off.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – A weak jobs report and a drop in ISM Services did not dampen spirits and the market has been able to tread water near the all-time high. The new tariffs will be imposed and Fed officials will be watching for signs of inflation. If it materializes it could take a few months because of “front running”. Current inventories are artificially high and demand has been pushed forward. The market is heading into a period of seasonal weakness, but the news cycle is light and I don’t see any speedbumps ahead.

Gaps up have been faded and buyers are not chasing these moves higher. Once the market pulls back and support is established, they enter. This is a sign that buyers are not as aggressive. Near an all-time high, sellers are not that aggressive either. Shorts have been punished and the uptrend remains strong. When the market gaps down the selling pressure ends quickly. That is a sign that the bid is fairly strong.

Since May we’ve only seen a few consecutive red candles on the daily chart. When the market puts in a bearish trend day, we typically see those losses erased the next day.

The calendar is very light next week. CPI and PPI are not likely to move the needle now that inflation has been easing. Congress and the Fed are in recess, but with Trump the news cycle never completely dies down.

The drop a week ago has created some intraday price movement. Resistance will build at the all-time high and the closer we get to it the more compressed the intraday ranges will become. The next week is when a lot of traders take time off. It is the last chance to take a vacation before the kids go back to school.

From the low two hours before the close Thursday to the open today the S&P 500 has rallied 50 points. I believe that some of those gains will be challenged and I would be relatively cautious with longs right out of the gate even though the net overnight change looks reasonable.

I don’t know what the day will bring, but I hope we see nice fluid movement both ways. That would be a sign that buyers and sellers are battling it out and that a bigger move is pending. We need to see some volume. If we see mixed overlapping candles and light volume we are likely to be trapped in yesterday’s range and conditions will be challenging.

Support is at $632.50 (Thurs VWAP) and the low from Thursday. Resistance is the high from Thursday and the all-time high.

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