Mid-Morning Look

Friday, August 08, 2025

Another day, another broad-based stock market rally (all eleven S&P sectors in the green to start), paced by gains in Technology (again), Financials, and Communications as investors that chase winners continue being rewarded. Mega cap tech names are leading amid a resurgence in AAPL shares this week (+10% WTD), along with strength in NVDA, GOOGL, META, TSLA and AMZN of late. Over the last week, we saw market pullbacks twice (last Friday, this Tuesday) on weaker data or tariff headlines, which only led to bigger market gains the following days. Today thus far is no different, with investors snapping up shares and pushing major averages higher after weakness Thursday, on track to close higher for the 3^rd week in last four. Japan’s Nikkei surged after the US confirmed it would end stacking of universal tariffs on Japan and cut car levies as promised, Tokyo’s top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said after a meeting on Thursday with his counterparts in Washington. the Nikkei Index surged 761 points to a new record high 41,820, the Shanghai Index fell -4 points to 3,635, and the Hang Seng Index fell -222 points to 24,858. We are mostly done with Q2 earnings season as 455 of the 500 names in the S&P 500 (SPX) have reported, posting an impressive 83% EPS beat rate as the average beat has been by 15% vs 14% y/y and avg miss -21% vs -18% y/y, while avg yr/yr earnings growth 16% vs 9%. IPO markets have been hot with recent IPOS CRWV, CRCL, FLY, CHYM, FIG all doing well in initial launches, while the pipeline appears to be increasing going forward; crypto remains strong (Bitcoin/Ethereum), AI euphoria in full effect (Semis, data centers, power names), drones and defense have surged as markets show no fear as the VIX remains pressured.

WTI crude oil reverse to losses on reports that the U.S. and Russia are planning a truce deal this morning. Oil prices remain on track for the steepest weekly losses since late June. Coming into Friday, Brent was on track to be down 3.9% over the week while WTI was set to finish 4.5% lower than last Friday’s close. Prices have been hit this week amid higher U.S. tariffs against a host of trade partners that went into effect on Thursday, raising concern over economic activity and demand for crude oil. Gold prices surged overnight as the U.S. imposed tariffs on imports of 1 kg bullion bars, widening the spread between New York futures and spot prices. December U.S. gold futures hit a record high of $3,534.10 but has since pulled back after US Customs & Border Protection posted a notice that gold bars in 1 kg and 100 oz weights will be subject to reciprocal tariffs.

• In Aerospace: RKLB reported strong Q2 results with revenue/AEBITDA +7%/+$1MM above consensus, and guided Q3 revenue and AEBITDA above consensus. Both Space Systems (+27% y/y) and Launch (+59% y/y) drove Q2 strength while NG GM strong (+520 bps y/y). KTOS reported a Q2 beat expectations and mgmt increased its rev/EBITDA outlook; bookings were light, down 23% YOY, and the 0.7x B2B was a multi-year low watermark.
• Gold miners surged (AEM, AU, GFI, KGC, NEM, GOLD) early behind a record high print for gold prices overnight as the U.S. imposed tariffs on imports of 1 kg bullion bars, widening the spread between New York futures and spot prices. December U.S. gold futures hit a record high of $3,534.10 but has since pulled back after US Customs & Border Protection posted a notice that gold bars in 1 kg and 100 oz weights will be subject to reciprocal tariffs.
• In Semis: IPGP upgraded to Outperform at Bernstein saying they are seeing a much more solid foundation and significantly mitigated risks. MCHP reported strong F1Q (Jun) results and F2Q (Sep) guidance, which were both solidly above expectations; Sept qtr backlog started higher than June qtr backlog, with bookings in July at the highest level in 3 years (shares fell); ONTO a weaker guide but raised its 4Q AI logic packaging revenue outlook to surge by ~50% seq., halving the anticipated decline in this area from what was initially anticipated in May. SYNA posted solid F4Q (Jun) results and F1Q (Sep) guidance, which were slightly above expectations. IoT revenues continue to recover nicely, growing +24% q/q, +56% y/y and is expected to grow +11% q/q, +55% y/y in F1Q. TSM July revenue NT$323.17B vs NT$256.95B.

• DOCS +12%; reported a top- and bottom-line beat with revenues coming in ~5% above consensus and adj. EBITDA coming in ~11% above Street estimates; also guided to F2Q revenues that are ~5% above current consensus and adj. EBITDA ~7% above consensus; also raised its full-year guidance by 1%.
• EXPE +4%; after raising their full-year gross bookings growth forecast to between 3% and 5%, up 1 percentage point from its earlier forecast following a 21% rise in Q2 adj EPS to $4.24 (vs. est. $4.10).
• GILD +7%; posted quarterly beat and raise coupled with bullish commentary on the ongoing launch of Yeztugo; beat Q225 expectations for sales and EPS, driven by the HIV segment; strength in HIV also prompted management to raise guidance, now projecting +3% YoY growth vs flat (prior).
• MNST +7%; was upgraded to Overweight at Piper after results noting Q2 revenue growth (+9.4%) was ~2.5pp better than they had expected, and while US growth.
• NTRA +14%; shares jumped as delivered another strong beat and raise quarter while the management chose to hold its operating expense guide steady – a reversal from recent quarters where it raised it.
• REAL +22%; reported Q2 revenue of $165M (+14% y/y) and adj. EBITDA of $6.7M 4% margin, supported by record GMV of $504M as highlighted that performance was underpinned by record new consignors, and trends have continued into Q3; also raised its FY outlook to reflect ongoing momentum in the business.

• IOVA -17%; shares tumbled as net loss per share was ($0.33) on product revenue of $60.0MM vs. consensus of ($0.28) and $67MM. IOVA announced a restructuring to drive > $100MM in annual savings starting in 4Q25; stock reacted negatively as revenue miss was mainly due to IL-2, with AMTAGVI meeting consensus.
• PINS -7%; shares slumped on lower pricing; Q2 revenue and adj. EBITDA 2.4%/8% above Street expectations on better Q2 global MAUs (+11% to 578M vs. est. 533M), but print was dampened by a 25% decrease in ad pricing, and increased marketing spending.
• SEZL -30%; shares tumbled after beating Q2 consensus expectations, but had a high bar, while guides FY revs +60-65% vs est. +62.94% and adj EPS $3.25 vs est. $3.26.
• SG -26%; shares tumbled following a challenging quarter which saw both top- and bottom-line misses vs Street expectations (SSS -7.6%, vs consensus -5.5%; adj. EBITDA $6.4M, vs consensus $11.2M), and slashed guidance as sees FY revs $700-715Mm vs est. $740.57Mm, and comps -6% to -4%.
• TTD -38%; shares tumbled after Q2 adj-EBITDA were positive with a 39% margin but the revenue beat of 1.3% was a significant step-down from 7.1% q/q while the CEO warned about ongoing tariff uncertainty pressuring some of the world’s largest advertisers. (downgraded by a few Wall Street firms).
• TWLO -16%; reported a mixed Q2, with revenue and EPS beats driven by 14% organic growth in Communications, offset by another flat quarter in Segment. FY25 organic growth and FCF were raised, but shares fell as Q3’s 8-9% organic growth guide signaled a slowdown from Q2’s 13%.
• UAA -20%; shares tumble as reported Q1 adj EPS below consensus and forecasts Q2 revenue below estimates, saying sees decline between -6% and -7%, compared to estimates of a -2.9% drop hurt by muted demand in North America due to tariff uncertainties; also warns of a gross margin drop of 340 to 360 basis points in Q2 amid tariff impact.