Closing Recap

Friday, August 08, 2025

Another day, another rally, and another push higher for U.S. stocks on Friday, finishing with weekly gains as the Nasdaq notches a record closing high for a 2^nd straight day. Upside momentum has been building, with the biggest players (AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA) still seeing massive gains this year and leading the charge, while AAPL posted a 13.3% weekly gain, largest since 2020. Several factors have pushed stocks higher in the last 4 months including: 1) the tariff situation is working way better (thus far) than Wall Street had figured in April when first announced, bringing in approximately $152 billion for the year, according to Treasury Department data cited in recent reports. This figure includes a record-breaking $29 billion collected in July alone. 2) Earnings season has been terrific overall, with 82% earnings beat rate for the S&P 500 (455 companies), with the highly market concentrated tech space not really impacted to this point (retailers, chemical, material companies have noted impact of tariffs). 3) The Fed has yet to cut rates, but investors have continued to shrug it off despite calls for much lower rates by the President. With a potential rate cut cycle coming in the next few months after the economy has weakened (jobs, services data, housing), and inflation yet to move higher, that could be a tailwind for markets. 4) Macro picture has improved with Ukraine/Russia on brink of peace talks, Iran/Israel/Palestine headlines have disappeared, and the White House has worked favorable trade deals for the U.S., a much better place than where we have been. Couple that with irrational exuberance, FOMO, euphoria…pick your favorite term…and you got record high markets as investors remain unafraid about anything. When will it end? Will it end? Stock PEs may not be anywhere close to the 1999 dot.com bubble, but the euphoric feel and chasing winners at extremely rich valuations in several sectors (AI, crypto) are somewhat reminiscent of those times. Time will tell, but for now, Wall Street is buying first and worrying later.

After a busy two weeks of fresh IPOs recently (FLY, WYFI, FIG), a few more IPOs are on the horizon with crypto firm Bullish (BLSH) expected to price Tuesday night (8/12) aiming to raise up to $629M (20M shares between $28-$31 price) and Miami Int’l (MIAX) on Wednesday night as targets $1.7B valuation (8/13), which competes with CME, NDAQ, ICE (15M shares range $19-$21). In treasury supply, the US Treasury will issue zero via auction this week (after vs $125B this past week). On tap for next week is inflation data with the consumer price index (CPI) on Tuesday and the Producer Price Index on Thursday. On the trade front, markets see upside risk to the current 10% reciprocal tariff on China, likely raising it to 20–25% unless Beijing offers concessions (Fentanyl crackdown, US imports, rare earth supply, market entry).

Just how strong has this market been? 1) @jasongoepfert noted on “X”, The S&P 500 $SPY just gapped up at the open for the 18th time in the past 19 sessions. It’s only been done twice since its 1993 inception.” 2) @amitisinvesting noted on “X” the strength of Q2 earnings saying, “83% of S&P 500 companies reported earnings above analyst expectations for Q2 2025…on average, earnings beat expectations by 7.1%…technology had the highest beat rate at 94% with a strong 7.8% surprise and +7.2% relative return…consensus earnings per share rose from $62.49 to $65.67 — a 5.1% increase since June 30, 2025”.

• December gold settles +$37.60/oz, or +1.09% at $3,491.30, hitting record highs overnight of $3,534.10 an ounce as the U.S. imposed tariffs on imports of 1 kg bullion bars, widening the spread between New York futures and spot prices. Futures finished off their highs after US Customs & Border Protection posted a notice that gold bars in 1 kg and 100 oz weights will be subject to reciprocal tariffs.
• U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note rising 3.9bps to settle at 4.282%, rising 6.4bps on the week, its first weekly gain in three weeks after a series of weak auctions weighed on bonds. The 2-year yield rose 5.6bps on the week to end at 3.757% and the 30-yr rose 4.8bps on week to 4.853%. The weaker auctions reversed rates higher mid-week after initially sliding on economic data that indicated little movement in the labor market, while a report on the services sector hinted at a rekindling of inflationary pressures.
• Expectations for a rate cut of at least 25 basis points by the Fed at its September meeting stand at 89.4%, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool, up from 80.3% a week ago. Overall, futures market is pricing in 58.3 bps of cuts by year-end.

• REAL reported Q2 revenue of $165M (+14% y/y) and adj. EBITDA of $6.7M 4% margin, supported by record GMV of $504M as highlighted that performance was underpinned by record new consignors, and trends have continued into Q3; also raised its FY outlook to reflect ongoing momentum in the business.
• UAA shares tumble as reported Q1 adj EPS below consensus and forecasts Q2 revenue below estimates, saying sees decline between -6% and -7%, compared to estimates of a -2.9% drop hurt by muted demand in North America due to tariff uncertainties; also warns of a gross margin drop of 340 to 360 basis points in Q2 amid tariff impact.
• Imports into the United States fell more than expected in June as concerns around shifting tariff policies hit retailers, raising fears of fewer product options in stores for shoppers, data from the National Retail Federation showed on Friday. U.S. ports covered by NRF’s report handled 1.96 million 20-foot containers or its equivalent in June, which was down 8.4% y/y, but up 0.7% from May. That was a bigger drop from the NRF forecast a month ago. The trade body had then projected ports would handle 2.06 million TEU in June, up 5.9% from May but down 3.7% y/y.

• In Food & Beverages: DEO was upgraded to Neutral at Goldman Sachs on valuation saying they see limited downside risk in FY26, as new management steps-up cost saving to support best-in-class margins and stabilize earnings, albeit visibility remains low, and the outlook is based on a 2H recovery. MNST was upgraded to Overweight at Piper after results noting Q2 revenue growth (+9.4%) was ~2.5pp better than they had expected, and while US growth.

• In Delivery Services: CART shares rose after reporting strong results as Q2 GTV growth accelerated one point from Q125 and GTV came in at $81M (1%) above the high end of guidance while Q2 EBITDA came in $8M (3%) above the high end of guidance, while Q325 GTV and EBITDA guidance were 2% and 3% above consensus at the midpoints, respectively.
• In Casinos & Gaming: FLUT revenue increased 16% YoY, partially driven by inorganic growth during the quarter as the company beat overall revenue expectations by 1%, with International in line and the U.S. beating by 4%. EBITDA increased 25%, to $919M, including a 5% beat from International and 32% from the U.S. Its sports betting handle growth slowed but increased iGaming revenue 42%, while setting a record for gaming margins. WYNN reported a Q1 adj EPS profit miss of $1.09 vs. est. $1.21 and revs also fell just of consensus at $1.74B vs. $1.75B on weak Macau demand.
• In Autos: Tire company GT shares fell on mixed results as Q2 adj EPS ($0.17) vs est. $0.07 on revs $4.5B vs est. $4.418B; Canadian Tire (CDNAF) was downgraded at BMO Capital saying they ow feels more cautious towards the opex outlook at CTC going forward, which has lowered its estimates, and feel the stock will likely trade range-bound
• In Leisure activity: PTON was upgraded to Buy from Neutral with $11.50 PT after Q4 results at Goldman Sachs saying sees as a story with new management, new initiatives aimed at platform growth and monetization for the next few years and a scope for higher incremental returns on capital in the form of free cash flow conversion.

• In Energy: EOG 2Q results exceeding production and EBITDA forecast with capex 2% below guidance; In Utility: LEU announced CFO leaving; SMR shares slip early after results; CTRI slips after SWX sold 15 million shares at $19.50 apiece for gross proceeds of $292.5 million in a secondary offering (SWX trimmed its stake to 33.4% from 52.1%).

• In Lending: FNMA, FMCC rallied after the WSJ reported the Trump administration is preparing to sell stock in mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in an offering it believes could raise around $30B and kick off later this year, according to people familiar with the matter.  The plans being discussed by some administration officials could value the companies at roughly $500B or more combined and involve selling between 5% and 15% of their stock, some of the people said. Still up for debate is whether the mortgage giants would IPO as one company or two separate entities.

• CGC shares jumped on earnings, helping boost the cannabis sector MSOS, CURLF, CRLBF.
• GILD posted quarterly beat and raise coupled with bullish commentary on the ongoing launch of Yeztugo; beat Q225 expectations for sales and EPS, driven by the HIV segment; strength in HIV also prompted management to raise guidance, now projecting +3% YoY growth vs flat (prior).
• IOVA shares tumbled as net loss per share was ($0.33) on product revenue of $60.0MM vs. consensus of ($0.28) and $67MM. IOVA announced a restructuring to drive > $100MM in annual savings starting in 4Q25; stock reacted negatively as revenue miss was mainly due to IL-2, with AMTAGVI meeting consensus.
• NTRB said the FDA grants meeting request for co’s fentanyl patch, scheduled for September 18 in which the regulator will provide feedback on co’s marketing application for fentanyl patch,

• HAE was downgraded to Neutral at JP Morgan as Plasma revenue came in ahead of expectations (+29% organic ex-CSL) by $19M or a ~$4-5M beat ex one-time software contract renegotiation, but Hospital and IVT specifically came in below as MVP/MVP XL has slowed meaningfully following competitive/commercial challenges.
• HCAT was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Cantor due to a worsening revenue outlook driven by multi-year headwinds; said the growth outlook for HCAT has substantially changed in Cantor’s view following today’s Q225 call.
• NTRA shares jumped as delivered another strong beat and raise quarter while the management chose to hold its operating expense guide steady – a reversal from recent quarters where it raised it.
• TEM raised its 2025 revenue forecast to $1.26 billion, from its previous projection of $1.25 billion, posts quarterly revenue of $314.6 million compared with $165.97 y/y; said saw significant re-acceleration of clinical volumes which grew 30% in the reported quarter, as co delivered more than 212,000 next-generation sequencing tests.

• In Aerospace: RKLB reported strong Q2 results with revenue/AEBITDA +7%/+$1MM above consensus, and guided Q3 revenue and AEBITDA above consensus. Both Space Systems (+27% y/y) and Launch (+59% y/y) drove Q2 strength while NG GM strong (+520 bps y/y). KTOS reported a Q2 beat expectations and mgmt increased its rev/EBITDA outlook; bookings were light, down 23% YOY, and the 0.7x B2B was a multi-year low watermark.
• Gold miners surged (AEM, AU, GFI, KGC, NEM, GOLD) early behind a record high print for gold prices overnight as the U.S. imposed tariffs on imports of 1 kg bullion bars, widening the spread between New York futures and spot prices. December U.S. gold futures hit a record high of $3,534.10 but has since pulled back after US Customs & Border Protection posted a notice that gold bars in 1 kg and 100 oz weights will be subject to reciprocal tariffs.

• In Media & Telecom: TV was downgraded to Neutral at Goldman Sachs following rally in shares. In Latin America Telcos, JP Morgan upgrades AMX to Neutral on higher cash flow generation boosted by reduced CAPEX and reduced regulatory risk while downgrading VIV to Underweight on rich valuation coupled with downside risk to consensus earnings.
• In Digital Advertising: TTD shares tumbled more than 30% overnight after Q2 adj-EBITDA were positive with a 39% margin but the revenue beat of 1.3% was a significant step-down from 7.1% q/q while the CEO warned about ongoing tariff uncertainty pressuring some of the world’s largest advertisers. (downgraded by a few Wall Street firms).
• In Internet: YELP 2Q results were ahead of lowered expectations; however, rev growth still decelerated 400 bps sequentially with Services decelerating from consistent double-digit growth to mid-single-digit growth on an organic basis.
• In social media: PINS shares slumped on lower pricing; Q2 revenue and adj. EBITDA 2.4%/8% above Street expectations on better Q2 global MAUs (+11% to 578M vs. est. 533M), but print was dampened by a 25% decrease in ad pricing, and increased marketing spending.

• TEAM reported generally good FQ4 results as total revenue grew 22% Y/Y, surpassing the Street’s +20% estimate as mgmt cited strong growth in large deals, and very healthy Cloud migration activity. Meanwhile, FY26 guidance for 18% revenue growth was below consensus.
• TWLO reported a mixed Q2, with revenue and EPS beats driven by 14% organic growth in Communications, offset by another flat quarter in Segment. FY25 organic growth and FCF were raised, but shares fell as Q3’s 8-9% organic growth guide signaled a slowdown from Q2’s 13%
• In IT Services & Consulting: AKAM Q2 revenue and profitability came in above consensus, with Q3 guidance being set above consensus, and FY25 revenue and profitability guidance also coming in nicely ahead of estimates.

• MCHP reported strong F1Q (Jun) results and F2Q (Sep) guidance, which were both solidly above expectations; Sept qtr backlog started higher than June qtr backlog, with bookings in July at the highest level in 3 years
• ONTO a weaker guide but raised its 4Q AI logic packaging revenue outlook to surge by ~50% seq., halving the anticipated decline in this area from what was initially anticipated in May.
• SYNA posted solid F4Q (Jun) results and F1Q (Sep) guidance, which were slightly above expectations. IoT revenues continue to recover nicely, growing +24% q/q, +56% y/y and is expected to grow +11% q/q, +55% y/y in F1Q. SYNA noted order activity and backlog entering the Sept qtr has improved, while channel inventories remain lean.
• TSM July revenue NT$323.17B vs NT$256.95B.