Daily Commentary: August 12, 2025

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Low Inflation Gives Fed Room

Posted by Pete Stolcers on August 12
www.oneoption.com

This morning the CPI came in at .2% and that is lower than last month’s reading.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – This is a relatively quiet news week and CPI was one of the major releases that had the potential to move the market. It came in at .2% vs the .3% reading last month and the SPY briefly flirted with the all-time high after the release.

The market is pricing in a Fed rate cut in September and a hot inflation number could have spoiled that. Prices have been easing so I did not expect a big reaction either way.

Trump announced that the trade deal deadline with China has been extended 90 days. It’s not that Trump is feeling generous, China has leverage. We need rare earth minerals and they control 90% of the supply. Other trade partners do not have this bargaining chip. This does call into question the threat of a 50% tariff hike for countries buying oil from Russia.

Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska Friday to talk peace. This is the first face-to face meeting between the US and Russia in six years. These negotiations will take a long time and Ukraine is not sitting at the table.

There aren’t any big market drivers this week. I would not buy this gap up. The news was largely expected and gaps up have been faded. Since the initial reaction, the S&P 500 futures have backed off. If the market is going to challenge the all-time high, it has to do so early in the day and it has to come on volume. If not, that resistance will stay intact.

Wait for the bid to be tested. If more than half of the gain is preserved for the first hour, the market is likely to grind higher. If the gap up easily fails, we are likely to see two-sided action and an inside day. Our best chance for sustained movement is a breakout to a new all-time high early in the day.

Support is the low from Monday and resistance is the all-time high.

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