Early Look

Tuesday, August 12, 2025

U.S. futures are flattish after ending Monday just off the lows of the day as investors await key inflation data, with the July consumer price index (CPI) report expected later this morning around 8:30 am. Economists have warned for months about rising inflation due to U.S. tariffs, but to this point, Wall Street hasn’t seen too much. The first real sign of rising inflation came two weeks ago, with a sharp increase in the June PCE index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. But next up is the consumer-price index where the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and gas, is forecast to rise an elevated 0.3% in July — the biggest increase in six months. If the forecast is spot on, the rate of core inflation in the past 12 months would rise a few notches to 3.1%, pushing it further away from the Fed’s 2% goal. The overall CPI, meanwhile, is expected to rise 0.2% in July. The 12-month rate could rise to 2.9% from 2.8%. Shares on Wall Street closed modestly lower after the Nasdaq posted a record closing high for a second straight session last Friday. U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order Monday extending a pause in sharply higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports for another 90 days, a White House official said, in a move that was widely expected. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index surged 897 points to 42,718, the Shanghai Index rose 18 points to 3,665, and the Hang Seng Index gained 62 points to 24,969. In Europe, the German DAX is down -93 points to 23,987, while the FTSE 100 rises 13 points to 9,143.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -200.52 points, or 0.45%, to 43,975.09
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -64.62 points, or 0.30%, to 21,385.40
• The Russell 2000 Index slipped -1.91 points, or 0.09% to 2,216.51

• 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
• 8:30 AM ET                  Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline M/M for July…est. +0.2% (prior +0.3%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline Y/Y for July…est. +2.8% (prior +2.7%)
• 8:30 AM ET CPI Core: Ex Food & Energy M/M for July…est. +0.3% (prior +0.2%)
• 8:30 AM ET CPI Core: Ex Food & Energy Y/Y for July…est. +3.0% (prior +2.9%)
• 8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 11:00 AM ET                Cleveland Fed CPI for July…prior +0.3%
• 12:00 PM ET WASDE crop report for August
• 2:00 PM ET                   Federal Budget for July…est. (-$140.0B) vs. prior +$27B
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AII ALXO CAI CAVA CLPT CRWV DDI DERM EC ECG GAIN GRAL HRB HYLN INO IZEA LAZR LITE MLYS NVGS PLBY PXLW QUIK RGTI SLDE SND VRCA XAIR ZVRA

• Deutsche Bank Transportation Conference, 8/12-8/13, in New York
• Keybanc Annual Technology Leadership Forum, 8/11-8/12, in Utah
• Needham 10th Annual MedTech & Diagnostics 1:1 Virtual Conference, 8/11-8/12
• Oppenheimer 28th Annual Tech, Internet &Comms Conference, 8/11-8/13
• Stifel Biotech Summer Summit, 8/11-8/13, in Newport, RI

• India’s annual retail inflation slowed to 1.55% in July as compared to 2.10% in June, and below est. 1.76%. Food prices in July fell 1.76% compared to a revised fall of 1.01% in June.
• The RBA cut the cash rate by 25bps to 3.60%, in line with expectations, bringing total cuts this year to 75bps. The move reflects continued progress in bringing underlying inflation toward the 2–3% target midpoint and a modest easing in labor market tightness.
• Germany’s August ZEW economic research institute said its economic sentiment index fell to 34.7 points from 52.7 points in July, while analysts polled by Reuters had pointed to a reading of 39.8.
• President Trump nominated EJ Antoni, chief economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation, to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics, following his Aug. 1 firing of Erika McEntarfer after a weak July jobs report and sharp downward revisions to prior months.

• Bally’s Corp. (BALY) Q2 revs $657.5M, rising 5.8% y/y vs. est. $646.5M; Casinos & Resorts revenue of $393.3M, up 14.7% y/y; U.K. online revenue grew 8.8%, while International Interactive revenue of $206.1M declined 10.2% y/y; North America Interactive revenue of $56.5M, up 21.5% y/y.
• Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) upgraded to Overweight at Piper from neutral with $50 tgt citing an improved risk/reward for the upgrade as it now sees over 20% in a “base case” that assumes Chipotle posting comp growth of 3% over the next two years.
• Gildan Activewear (GIL) is close to a deal to buy Hanesbrands (HBI), potentially valuing the company at about $5B, including debt, The Financial Times reported. The deal talks are at an advanced stage and an acquisition could be agreed by the end of the week, but the talks are not finalized https://tinyurl.com/y3k7b9uz
• On Holding (ONON) shares rise; Q2 net sales CHF 749.2M vs est. CHF 705.3M; Q2 gross margin 61.5%; Q2 adj Ebitda CHF 136.1M vs. est. CHF 115.6M; sees FY net sales up at least 31% on constant currency basis, equivalent to CHF 2.91B and sees FY adj EBITDA margin 17.0%-17.5%.

• Gevo Inc. (GEVO) Q2 EPS $0.01 vs est. ($0.06), adj EBITDA $17Mm vs est. $1.2Mm on revs $43.413Mm vs est. $46.46.
• Hallador Energy (HNRG) Q2 adj EBITDA $3.4Mm vs est. $1.959Mm on revs $60Mm vs est. $94.05Mm; says positioned for an active 2Hlf as both units return to full dispatch and coal customer shipments accelerate.
• Oklo (OKLO) and Lightbridge (LTBR) announced a strategic collaboration to explore the potential co-location of a Lightbridge fuel fabrication facility within Oklo’s planned advanced fuel manufacturing facility; OKLO also reported Q2 results.
• Plug Power (PLUG) Q2 EPS ($0.20) vs est. ($0.15) on revs $174Mm vs est. $157.9Mm; says expects to achieve gross margin breakeven on a run-rate basis in Q4 2025.

• Circle Internet Group Inc (CRCL) Q2 total revs income grew 53% y/y to $658M; outlook FY 2025 other revs $75M-$85M; paid $424M for stock-based compensation related to vesting conditions met by our IPO; Q2 net loss was $482M, significantly impacted by IPO-related non-cash charges that totaled $591M.
• Cohen & Steers (CNS) preliminary assets under management of $88.6B as of July 31, a decrease of $353M from assets under management of $88.9B at June 30. The decrease was due to market depreciation of $410M and distributions of $152M, partially offset by net inflows of $209M.
• Fulton Financial (FULT) files automatic mixed securities shelf.
• Green Dot (GDOT) Q2 adj EPS $0.40 vs est. $0.18, adj EBITDA $45.425Mm on revs $501.16Mm vs est. $498.293Mm; guides FY revs $2.0-2.1B vs est. $2.048B, adj EBITDA $160-170Mm and adj EPS $1.28-1.42 vs est. $1.22.
• Invesco (IVZ) reported preliminary month-end assets under management of $2.024T, an increase of 1.2% versus previous month-end. The firm delivered net long-term inflows of $5.8B in the month.
• Lazard Inc. (LAZ) reported that its preliminary assets under management (“AUM”) as of July 31, 2025 totaled approximately $253.7 billion. The month’s AUM included net inflows of $4.5 billion, market appreciation of $3.9 billion, and FX depreciation of $3.2 billion.
• MARA Holdings Inc. (MARA) signed an investment agreement to acquire a 64% stake in Exaion, a subsidiary of EDF, for approximately $168M in cash. The deal includes an option for MARA to increase its ownership to 75% by 2027 with an additional investment of about $127M, contingent on meeting certain milestones.
• Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. (VCTR) Total Assets Under Management (AUM) of $299.8 billion, Other Assets of $3.1B, and Total Client Assets of $302.9B, as of July 31, 2025. For July, Average Total AUM was $300.3B, average Other Assets was $3.1B, and average Total Client Assets was $303.4B.
• ZipRecruiter (ZIP) Q2 adjusted EBITDA $9.3M vs. est. $7.4M; Q2 revs $112.2M vs. est. $111.7M; said quarterly Paid Employers have grown sequentially since Q4’24; announces new $100M buyback authorization.

• Maravia Lifesciences (MRVI) Q2 adj EPS ($0.08) vs est. ($0.07), adj EBITDA ($10.4)Mm vs est. ($8.39)Mm on revs $47.4Mm vs est. $47.4Mm; withdrawing and suspending revs guidance for FY; sees restructuring charges of $8-9Mm for FY.
• Merck (MRK) announced positive topline results from the Phase 3 KEYNOTE-905 trial (also known as EV-303) in patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) who are ineligible for cisplatin-based chemotherapy.
• Xenon Pharmaceuticals (XENE) Q2 EPS $1.07 vs est. ($0.99), op exp $94.229Mm, pre-tax profit ($85.332Mm) vs est. ($79.4Mm).

• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) reports Q2 EPS loss (-$0.41) vs. est. loss (-$0.51); q2 revs $1.16M vs. est. $6.02M; said confirming fully funded plan to deploy 45 to 60 satellites into orbit by 2026 to support continuous service in the US, Europe, Japan, and other strategic markets; backs revenue view of $50M-$70M in 2H.
• Celanese (CE) Q2 adjusted EPS $1.44 tops consensus $1.40; Q2 revs $2.53B vs. est. $2.49B; guided Q3 adj EPS $1.10-$1.40 below consensus $1.73 saying expects a softening demand environment across most key end-markets in the second half of the year; anticipates an approximate $25 million negative sequential impact to earnings due to ongoing inventory reduction efforts.
• Compass Minerals (CMP) Q3 adj EPS loss (-$0.39); Q3 revs $214.6M vs. est. $208.6M; narrows FY25 adjusted EBITDA view to $185M-$201M from prior $173M-$202M; backs FY25 CapEx view $75M-$85M.
• Forward Air (FWRD) Q2 EPS loss (-$0.41) vs. est. loss (-$.26); Q2 revs $618.84M vs est. $627.98M; said By tightly managing costs and improving most of our operating KPIs, we have improved margins in our Expedited Freight segment.
• Hillenbrand Inc. (HI) Q3 adj EPS $0.51 vs est. $0.49, adj EBITDA $84Mm vs est. $85.4Mm on revs $598.9Mm vs est. $572.48Mm; guides FY revs $2.595-2.63B vs est. $2.584B, adj EBITDA $370-385Mm vs est. $373.13Mm and adj EPS $2.20-2.35 vs est. $2.23.
• Mercury Systems (MRCY) Q4 adj EPS $0.47 vs est. $0.23, adj EBITDA $51.3Mm vs est. $34.3Mm on revs $273.1Mm vs est. $245.4Mm; bookings $341.5Mm; backlog $1.4B.

• BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI) Q2 EPS ($0.71) vs est. ($0.06), adj EBITDA ($8.5)Mm vs est. ($2.154)Mm on revs $32.5Mm vs est. $40.56Mm; guides FY revs $125-140Mm vs est. $167.74Mm but withdraws previous adj EBITDA guidance for FY.
• GoPro Inc. (GPRO) Q2 adjusted EPS loss (-$0.08) vs. est. (-$0.24) y/y; Q2 revenue $152.64M vs. $186.22M; said in Q2 improved gross margin to 36.0%, up from 30.7%, reduced operating expenses 32% and improved adjusted EBITDA 83%; said Q2 subscriber count at end of was 2.45M, down -3% y/y; expects broader product launch in 2H to restore revenue growth and profitability starting in 4Q.
• iHeart Radio (IHRT) Q2 adj EBITDA $156Mm vs est. $151.56Mm on revs $934Mm vs est. $912.4Mm; guides Q3 adj EBITDA $180-220Mm vs est. $207.66Mm and revs down low-single digits vs est. -3.25%.
• Life360 (LIF) Q2 EPS $0.08 vs est. ($0.01), adj EBITDA $20.3Mm vs est. $13.2Mm o revs $115.4Mm vs est. $109.8Mm, gr mgn 78%; guides FY revs $462-482Mm vs est. $470.12Mm and adj EBITDA $72-82Mm vs est. $73.21Mm.
• Beijing has urged local companies to avoid using Nvidia Corp.’s (NVDA) H20 processors, particularly for government-related purposes, complicating the chipmaker’s attempts to recoup billions in lost China revenue after the Trump administration reversed an effective US ban on such sales – Financial Times reports.
• MagnaChip Semiconductor Corp (MX) announced that YJ Kim has agreed to step down as CEO and as a member of the Board of Directors, effective immediately. Camillo Martino, Chairman of the Board of Directors, has also been appointed Interim CEO; board continues to explore strategic alternatives; CAPEX plans to be cut by over 50% through 2027.
• PubMatic (PUBM) Q2 revs $71.1M vs. est. $67.9M; Q2 adj Ebitda $14.2M vs. est. $10.8M; Q2 EPS $0.05 vs. est. loss (-$0.16); guides Q3 revs $61M-$66M.
• Sea Ltd. (SE) Q2 adj Ebitda $829.2M vs. est. $804M; Q2 revs $5.26B vs. est. $5.12Be; said expect Shopee GMV growth momentum to carry into Q3; Q2 E-commerce GMV $29.8B, +28.2% y/y v $28.6B q/q.
• Sinclair (SBGI) is exploring merger options for its broadcast business; Sinclair, one of the largest owners of U.S. broadcast stations, is beginning a strategic review of its broadcast business that could result in a merger. The company is also looking to separate or spinoff its ventures business – CNBC https://tinyurl.com/yjs6vyuz
• Viant technology (DSP) Q2 adj EPS $0.09 vs est. $0.01, adj EBITDA $11.283Mm vs est. $10.78Mm on revs $77.853Mm vs est. $78Mm; guides Q3 revs $83.5-86.5Mm vs est. $89.77Mm and adj EBITDA $14-15Mm vs est. $16.44Mm.
• WideOpenWest, Inc. (WOW) said it entered into a definitive agreement under which affiliated investment funds of DigitalBridge Investments, LLC and Crestview Partners will acquire all of the outstanding shares of common stock of WOW! not already owned by Crestview and its affiliates for $5.20 per share in an all-cash transaction with an enterprise value of approximately $1.5 billion.