Mid-Morning Look

Tuesday, July 29, 2025

U.S. stocks extend their record rally, as the S&P 500 looks to make it a 7^th straight day of record highs and add to its tally in 2025, with investors showing no signs of slowing down, buying stocks day after day in some of the large cap tech names (semiconductors such as NVDA, AMD leading). With so much to focus on the remainder of the week, Wall Street hasn’t slowed down as the dollar index (DXY) extends gains, with sentiment strong given the recent bout of trade/tariff deal news seen favorably for the U.S. vs. Japan/EU and others, while China details being worked on this week ahead of the August 1^st deadline that President Trump called for this month. Outside of the barrage of earnings today (details below), other focus items this week include: 1) FOMC rate meeting tomorrow 7/30 with hopes for a more dovish tilt; 2) two notable M&A headlines (GTLS/BKR merger, and NSC/UNP in rails) are lifting sentiment; 3) TMT earnings are skewing positive and markets rewarding them. Focus today remains on earnings, the final day of US/China meetings in Stockholm (where a 90-day tariff extension is expected), and JOLTs jobs data (see below), ahead of ADP payrolls tomorrow and Nonfarm on Friday. The dollar index testing the tops recent 7-17 highs of 98.95, moving above 99, while Treasury yields slip. Of note, healthcare names weak on results with MRK, NVO, UNH falling post results; UPS slides in transports after pulling guidance.

The IMF edged its global growth forecast slightly higher for 2025 and 2026 given stronger-than-expected purchases ahead of an August 1 jump in U.S. tariffs and a drop in the effective U.S. tariff rate to 17.3% from 24.4%. But it warned that the global economy faced ongoing major risks, including a potential rebound in tariff rates, geopolitical tensions and larger fiscal deficits that could drive up interest rates and tighten global financial conditions. The IMF raised its global forecast by 0.2 percentage point to 3.0% for 2025 and by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1% in 2026, below the 3.3% growth it had projected for both years in January, and the pre-pandemic historical average of 3.7%.

• July Consumer Confidence index 97.2 (consensus 95.0) while June revised to 95.2 (previous 93.0)
• U.S. advance June goods trade balance -85.99B dollars; U.S. advance June wholesale inventories +0.2%; U.S. advance June retail inventories excluding autos unchanged.
• US May 20-metro area home prices +2.8% (consensus +3.0%) from year ago vs +3.4% in April (previous +3.4%) — S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller; May home prices in 20 metro areas -0.3% seasonally adj (consensus -0.2%) vs -0.3% in April (previous -0.3%); May 20-metro area home prices non-adjusted +0.4% vs +0.8% in April (previous +0.8%).

• In Crypto: COIN is in advanced talks to acquire India’s CoinDCX, reports Mint. The deal could value CoinDCX at under $1B, significantly lower than its $2.2B peak valuation three years ago. https://tinyurl.com/hsbrhm27 ; FIS announced a new partnership with a subsidiary of CRCL to give financial institutions the ability to transact in USDC, the world’s largest regulated stablecoin; BKKT shares tumble; 6.75M share Spot Secondary priced at $10.00 (a 41.8% discount to last close); said it will use proceeds to purchase bitcoin and other digital asset classes; BMNR announces $1B stock repurchase plan.
• In Fintech: PYPL beat Q2 earnings and revenue as transaction margin dollars rose 7% to $3.84 billion, marking the sixth straight quarter of profitability growth; Venmo revenue grew more than 20% y/y; Total payment volume for Venmo increased 12%, its highest growth rate in three years, but shares fell; OLO said it rejected a $13/share unsolicited acquisition offer; SOFI shares rose after results beat and guided annual EPS of $0.31, above its prior range of $0.25-$0.27 and sees annual revenue at $3.38B, above previous forecast of $3.24-$3.31B.
• In Industrials: GNRC was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Guggenheim with $190 tgt saying they believe that greater focus on commercial-scale opportunities, combined with the potential for a withdrawal from the troubled residential solar + storage business, support a more positive stance. JCI and FLS shares also both active following earnings results this morning. CARR shares fell after Q2 profit and revs beat consensus as total aftermarket sales for the quarter were up 13%, while only reiterated its full-year 2025 sales and profit forecast.
• In the EMS Sector: CLS shares jumped on Q2 EPS/revs beat and raised both the top and bottom end of its year guidance; SANM shares jumped on the open after its results/guidance. In EDA Sector: CDNS reported impressive Q2 results, beating revenue handily by $21M/2%, and posted its best HW quarter on record said Keybanc; raised its 2025 outlook by more than it beat (net raise of $19M), despite the six-week temporary restrictions headwind from China; posted Q2 backlog of $6.4B, better than expected.

• APLS +2%; after announced that Empaveli had received FDA label expansion approval to be the first treatment for C3G and ICMPGN in patients > 12 years old.
• BA +2%; Q2 EPS core loss/share (-$1.24) vs est. loss (-$1.40); Q2 revs $22.75B vs. est. $21.68B; Q2 neg adj free cash flow -$200M, vs. est. Negative $1.79B; has delivered 206 737 MAX jets through the first half of the year; Q2 Commercial airplanes rev. $10.87b, vs. est. $10.4b; 787 program production rate is now at seven per month.
• CDNS +9%; reported impressive Q2 results, beating revenue handily by $21M/2%, and posted its best HW quarter on record said Keybanc; raised its 2025 outlook by more than it beat (net raise of $19M), despite the six-week temporary restrictions headwind from China; posted Q2 backlog of $6.4B, better than expected.
• GLW +6%; shares rallied on earnings and sales rose 12% y/y to $4.05B, beating ests while its largest unit – Optical Communications – reported net sales of $1.57 billion in Q2 and guided Q3 core sales and EPS above estimates.
• GTLS +16%; BKR pays $13.6 billion cash deal to buy GTLS edging out rival suitor FLS and confirming a report by the Financial Times on Monday night. The FLS/GTLS agreement has now been terminated. The proposed deal for GTLS by BKR is $210 per share in cash.
• PTCT +11%; after the drugmaker said the FDA approved its Sephience therapy for children and adults living with phenylketonuria (PKU), a rare, inherited metabolic disease.
• SOFI +16%; shares rose after results beat and guided annual EPS of $0.31, above its prior range of $0.25-$0.27 and sees annual revenue at $3.38B, above previous forecast of $3.24-$3.31B.
• SRPT +24%; after the FDA announced its recommendation to remove the voluntary hold of ELEVIDYS for ambulatory patients following an investigation by the agency last week into the death of an 8-year-old DMD patient in Brazil that was deemed unrelated to the gene therapy.

• EXEL -16%; after reporting lower-than-expected quarterly sales of its cancer drug Cabometyx; Cabozantinib lagged consensus sales of $529M by 2%, driven by price.
• HLIT -8%; Q2 beat expectations with both video and broadband driving the upside, its Q3 guidance came in materially below estimates and its fiscal 2025 guidance was not reinstated.
• NEO -15%; after cutting its full-year outlook after posting a wider loss and lower-than-expected revenue in the second quarter; said it now expects revenue of $720M-$726M, down from a prior outlook of $747M-$759M and a wider net loss.
• NUE -4%; posted a Q2 EPS $2.60 (from $2.68 y/y and below est. $2.70), as rising raw material costs pressured the company’s steelmaking segment; it said Q3 EPS to be slightly lower q/q, citing decreased earnings in the steel mills segment and similar results in the steel products and raw materials segments
• NVO -20%; lowered its full-year sales growth forecast from 17% to 11% — citing soft U.S. Wegovy demand & growing competition from compounded weight-loss drugs like HIMS.
• SPOT -6%; shares fell as Q2 revs rose 10% y/y to $4.19B euros but below ests 4.26B euros; said unfavorable currency movements reduced y/y revenue growth by about 440 basis points in Q2; Q2 Premium subscribers rose 12% to 276 million, compared with estimate of 273 million; guides Q3 revs 4.2B euros vs. est. 4.48B euros.
• STLA -3%; updated its estimate of 2025 net tariff impact to about €1.5 billion ($1.73 billion), of which €300 million was incurred in 1H 2025.
• UNH -5%; reinstated full-year profit forecast that it pulled over two months ago, but its guidance fell short of analysts’ already-lowered expectations; guided FY EPS of at least $16 per share, lower than its previous expectation of $26 to $26.50 per share as the U.S. health insurer battles rising costs in its government-backed plans.
• UPS -6%; Q2 adj EPS $1.55 vs. est. $1.56; Q2 revs $21.2B vs. est. $20.861B; says on track with full-year savings target from network reconfiguration and efficiency reimagined initiatives; said given current macro-economic uncertainty, not providing FY REV or operating profit guidance.
• WHR -10%; after the appliance maker cut its full-year forecast for ongoing earnings per share; slashes its full-year adjusted earnings guidance to between $6-$8 a share, below the prior guide of $10 a share and recommended that its board cut the quarterly dividend nearly in half.

Syndicate:

• SEI 4M share Block Trade, priced at $31.00
• BKKT 6.75M share Spot Secondary, priced at $10.00
• VRSN 4.3M share Spot Secondary, priced at $285.00
• Deals to be priced today
• AMBQ (Ambiq Micro) 3.4M share IPO, range $22 – $25
• CELC announced $150M convert & $75M stock offerings last night, price & shares TBD
• Deals to be priced on Wednesday
• FIG (Figma) 36.94M share IPO, range $30-$32 (up from $25-$28
• SI (Shoulder Innovations) 5M share IPO, range $19-$21