Early Look

Tuesday, July 29, 2025

U.S. stock futures higher again, continuing its record run higher! It wasn’t a strong day, but the S&P 500 index eked out a tiny win on Monday, enough to make it a 6^th straight day of record closing highs heading into a bevy of key market moving catalysts in coming days. It was the 15th record closing high of the year for the S&P while Nasdaq extended its record run to 16 times this year. Sunday’s U.S. trade deal with the European Union brought some relief for investors, but given earnings results from AAPL, AMZN, META, MSFT (among many others in coming days), a handful of jobs reports this week, the FOMC rate meeting Wednesday (BoJ and BCB as well), and the US trade deadline with global partners on Friday, investors took a more “wait and see” approach on Monday. Investors are also considering what may come of new talks between top U.S. and Chinese economic officials, aimed at resolving longstanding economic disputes. The dollar climbed the most since May as the euro tumbled below $1.16. Oil advanced nearly 3% as Trump said he’d shorten his timeline for Russia to reach a truce with Ukraine. This morning so far, UNH, UPS, SPOT among companies moving lower on earnings results/guidance (details below). In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index declined -323 points to 40,674, the Shanghai Index rose 11 points to 3,609, and the Hang Seng Index slipped -37 points to 25,524. In Europe, the German DAX is surging 275 points to 24,245, while the FTSE 100 is up 45 points to 9,127.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -64.36 points, or 0.14%, to 44,837.56
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 70.27 points, or 0.33%, to 21,178.58
• The Russell 2000 Index slipped 4.34 points, or 0.19% to 2,256.73

• 8:30 AM ET                  Advance Trade Balance for June…est. (-$98.2B)
• 8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 9:00 AM ET                  Monthly Home Price M/M for May
• 9:00 AM ET                  CaseShiller 20-city index for May…est. (-0.2%)
• 10:00 AM ET                Consumer Confidence for July…est. 95.0
• 10:00 AM ET                JOLTs Job Openings for June…est. 7.5M (prior 7.769M)
• 1:00 PM ET U.S. Treasury to sell $44B in 7-year notes
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AAT ACGL AKR APAM ARI ASH ATRX AXS BKNG BXC BXP CAKE CAR CHE CLW CTO CWH CZR EA ESS EXE EXLS FCPT FRSH FTAI FYBR HIW HLI LC LOGI LSTR LXU MARA MCY MDLZ NBR NMIH NXY OI ORN PEB PEN PPG PRPL QRVO RCKY REG RMAX RRR RSG RYI SB SBUX ST STAG STX TDOC TER TTI TX UMBF UNM V VRNS WERN WPC WSBC ZWS

• Stellantis (STLA) said it faced greater headwinds this year including a 1.5-billion-euro impact from U.S. tariffs for 2025, with operating income in the second half set to be in the low-single digits following a tough first half; the 1.5-billion-euro ($1.73 billion) tariff impact was at the higher end of its recent forecast range of 1.0-1.5 billion euros.
• Whirlpool Corp. (WHR) shares tumble as Q2 adj EPS $1.34 missed consensus of $1.74 on weaker revs $3.77B, vs. consensus $3.88B; cuts FY25 adjusted EPS view to $6.00-$8.00 from ~$10.00 (vs. consensus $9.06) and backs FY25 revenue ~$15.8B vs. consensus $15.66B; recommended that its board cut the quarterly dividend nearly in half.

• Coinbase (COIN) is in advanced talks to acquire India’s CoinDCX, reports Mint. The deal could value CoinDCX at under $1B, significantly lower than its $2.2B peak valuation three years ago. https://tinyurl.com/hsbrhm27
• Cincinnati Financial (CINF) Q2 EPS $1.97 vs. est. $1.39; Q2 revs $3.25B vs. est. $2.79B; reports $91.46 book value per share at June 30, 2025, up $2.35 since year-end; 4.6% value creation ratio for the first six months of 2025, compared with 8.2% for the same period of 2024
• FIS (FIS) announced a new partnership with a subsidiary of Circle Internet Group (CRCL) to give financial institutions the ability to transact in USDC, the world’s largest regulated stablecoin.
• Hartford Financial (HIG) Q2 core EPS $3.41 vs. est. $2.83; Q2 revs $6.99B vs. est. $7.03B; Property & Casualty (P&C) written premiums increased by 8% in the second quarter of 2025, driven by Business Insurance and Personal Insurance premium growth of 8% and 7%, respectively.
• Northern Trust (NTRS) announces $2.5B common stock repurchase authorization.
• Principal Financial (PFG) Q2 adjusted EPS $2.07 vs. consensus $1.97; raises dividend to $0.78; Q2 Investment Management revenue increased 6% over 2Q24; margin improved 360 basis points from the year ago quarter to 38% due to increased management and performance fees and expense discipline.
• Western Union (WU) Q2 adj EPS $0.42 vs. est. $0.44; Q2 revs $1.03B vs. est. $1.04B; sees FY25 EPS $1.65-$1.75, below consensus $1.76 and sees FY25 revenue $4.09B-$4.18B vs. est. $4.14B

• AstraZeneca (AZN) beat second-quarter revenue and profit expectations on robust sales of newer cancer, heart and kidney disease medicines and strong demand in the US, where it invested $50 billion to expand amid tariff threats from Washington.
• Sarepta (SRPT) shares surged after the FDA recommended the removal of the voluntary hold for ambulatory patients who may now receive Elevidys, a gene therapy for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD). The FDA’s investigation has concluded that the death of the 8-year-old boy is unrelated to the gene therapy product itself.
• PTC Therapeutics (PTCT) announces FDA approval of Sephience™ (Sepiapterin) for the treatment of children and adults living with phenylketonuria.
• UnitedHealth’s (UNH) reinstated full-year profit forecast that it pulled over two months ago, but its guidance fell short of analysts’ already-lowered expectations; guided FY EPS of at least $16 per share, lower than its previous expectation of $26 to $26.50 per share as the U.S. health insurer battles rising costs in its government-backed plans.
• United Health Services (UHS) Q2 adj EPS $5.35 vs. consensus $4.94; Q2 revs $4.28B vs. est. $4.24B; raises FY25 adj EPS view to $20.00-$21.00 from $18.45-$19.95 while narrows FY25 revenue view to $17.096B-$17.313B from $17.02B-$17.364B, vs. consensus $17.13B.

• Crane Co (CR) Q2 adj EPS $1.49 topped consensus $1.33 on revs $577.2M vs. est. $567.85M; raises FY25 EPS view to $5.50-$5.80 from $5.30-$5.60 (est. $5.54) and raises FY25 revenue growth view to roughly 6.5% from 5%.
• Fluor (FLR) announced that it has received final notice to proceed from Barrick Mining Corporation (B) on its Reko Diq Project in Balochistan, Pakistan.
• JetBlue (JBLU) and United Airlines (UAL) said that they have cleared a review of their planned Blue-Sky partnership by the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT).
• Nucor Corp. (NUE) posted a fall in Q2 profit to $2.60 (from $2.68 y/y and below est. $2.70), as rising raw material costs pressured the company’s steelmaking segment; said it sees Q3 EPS to be slightly lower q/q, citing decreased earnings in the steel mills segment and similar results in the steel products and raw materials segments.
• Olin Corp. (OLN) Q2 revenue rises to $1.76 bln, beating analyst expectations $1.66B while adjusted EBITDA for Q2 $176.1M was below $278.1M y/y; expects Q3 adjusted EBITDA between $170M-$210M citing challenging markets and potential higher costs for Q3.
• Waste Management (WM) Q2 EPS $1.92 vs. est. $1.89 and revs $6.43B vs. est. $6.36B; affirming adjusted operating EBITDA guidance midpoint of $7.550B and narrowing its range slightly to $7.475 and $7.625B; said free cash flow is now projected to be between $2.8B-$2.9B, an increase of $125M.
• Woodward Inc (WWD) Q3 EPS $1.76 vs. est. $1.64; Q3 revs $915.44M vs. est. $890.52M; boosts FY25 adjusted EPS view to $6.50-$6.75 from $5.95-$6.25 (est. $6.38), raises FY25 revenue view to $3.45B-$3.525B from $3.375B-$3.5B (est. $3.47B) while lowers FY25 free cash flow view to $315M-$350M from $350M-$400M.
• UPS (UPS) Q2 adj EPS $1.55 vs. est. $1.56; Q2 revs $21.2B vs. est. $20.861B; says on track with full-year savings target from network reconfiguration and efficiency reimagined initiatives; said given current macro-economic uncertainty, not providing FY REV or operating profit guidance.

• Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) Q2 adj EPS $1.65 tops consensus $1.56 and revs $1.275B vs. est. $1.25B; sees FY25 adjusted EPS $6.85-$6.95, above consensus $6.76 and revs $5.21B-$5.27B vs. est. $5.2B; agreed to plead guilty to resolve charges that it unlawfully exported semiconductor design tools to a Chinese military university.
• Celestica (CLS) Q2 adj EPS $1.39 vs. est. $1.23; Q2 revs $2.89B vs. est. $2.67B; raises FY25 adjusted EPS view to $5.50 from $5.00 (est. $5.06) and raises FY25 revenue view to $11.55B from $10.85B.
• Nvidia (NVDA) placed orders for 300,000 H20 chipsets with contract manufacturer Taiwan Semi (TSM) last week, Reuters reported citing two sources, with one of them adding that strong Chinese demand had led the U.S. firm to change its mind about just relying on its existing stockpile.
• Onsemi (ON) partners with Nvidia (NVDA) to advance 800 VDC power solutions for next-gen AI data centers, boosting efficiency and sustainability. This collaboration aims to enhance power distribution with minimal losses.
• Rambus (RMBS) Q2 EPS $0.53 vs. est. $0.50; Q2 revs $172.2M vs. est. $166.97M; sees Q3 adjusted product revenue $87M-$93M
• Sanmina Corp. (SANM) Q3 non-GAAP EPS $1.53 above prior guidance of $1.35-$1.45 and expectations of $1.42; Q3 revs $2.04B topped the $1.96B estimate; guided Q4 EPS $1.52-$1.62 on adj basis vs. est. $1.61.
• Spotify (SPOT) shares fall; Q2 revs rose 10% y/y to $4.19B euros but below ests 4.26B euros; said unfavorable currency movements reduced y/y revenue growth by about 440 basis points in Q2; Q2 Premium subscribers rose 12% to 276 million, compared with estimate of 273 million and MAU net additions of 18 million brought the total to 696 million, exceeding expectations; guides Q3 revs 4.2B euros vs. est. 4.48B euros; said higher taxes related to employee salaries outweigh upbeat demand for its premium music-streaming plans; guides Q3 MAUS to 710 million, in line with estimates, while its prediction for a 5Mn increase in premium subscribers to 281M topped the 279M estimate;  board has approved a $1 billion increase to its share repurchase program.