Early Look

Thursday, July 17, 2025

S&P 500 Index futures are little changed as markets remain calm after Wednesday’s brief panic about Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s future, though Nasdaq futures edge higher following a rebound in semiconductors after TSM reported a beat and raise guidance overnight. In trade news, President Donald Trump said he would send letters to more than 150 countries notifying them their tariff rates could be 10% or 15% as he forges ahead with his trade agenda. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index gained 237 points to 39,901, the Shanghai Index rose 13 points to 3,516, and the Hang Seng Index declined -18 points to 24,498. In Europe, the German DAX is up 197 points to 24,206, while the FTSE 100 is up 40 points to 8,967. Earnings are starting to pick up steam following a big start to mega bank earnings the early part of the week as today, healthcare giant ELV slides on guidance cut, PEP edges higher on beverages after results, UAL slides in airlines on guidance and GE edges higher in industrials on results. In rails, CSX and NSC get a bump on an M&A media report while corn syrup companies ADM, INGR shares slide after President Trump comments on KO going to cane sugar. A busy day expected ahead with earnings from NFLX after the close tonight and a busy morning of economic data today (retail sales, jobless claims, import prices).

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 231.49 points, or 0.53%, to 44,254.78
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 52.69 points, or 0.26%, to 20,730.49
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 22.00 points, or 1.00% to 2,227.05

• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims…est. 1.985M
• 8:30 AM ET                  Import Prices M/M for June…est. +0.3% (prior 0%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Export Prices M/M for June…est. 0% (prior -0.9%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Philly Fed Business Index for July…est. (-1.0)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Retail Sales M/M for June…est. +0.1% (prior -0.9%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Retail Sales – Less Autos M/M for June…est. +0.3% (prior -0.3%)
• 10:00 AM ET                Business Inventories M/M for May…est. 0.0%
• 10:00 AM ET NAHB Housing Market Index for July…est. 33 (prior 32)
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 4:00 PM ET                   Net Long term TIC Flows for May…prior (-$7.8B)

• Earnings After the Close: FNB IBKR MRTN NFLX OZK SFNC WIT

• Japan’s exports fall for second straight month with no U.S. trade deal in sight, raising recession fears; the decrease in exports was a reversal of the 0.5% rise expected by economists polled by Reuters. Exports to the U.S. declined by 11.4% year over year, deepening from the 11% fall in May. Exports of automobiles to the U.S. fell 26.7% in June, extending May’s 24.7% plunge.

• Coca Cola (KO): President Trump said on truth Social last night, “I have been speaking to Coca-Cola about using REAL Cane Sugar in Coke in the United States, and they have agreed to do so. I’d like to thank all of those in authority at Coca-Cola. This will be a very good move by them.” (Watch shares of ADM, INGR which are the major US corn syrup makers).
• Monarch Casino & Resort (MCRI) Q2 EPS $1.44 tops consensus $1.17 on revs rising 6.8% y/y to $136.91M vs. est. $129.75M driven by strong casino revenues, which rose 12.1% y/y.
• United Airlines (UAL) Q2 adj EPS $3.87 vs est. $3.81 on revs $15.2B vs est. $15.355B, traffic +3.5%, load factor 83.1%, capacity +5.9%; says sees Q3 positive inflection in both supply and demand; sees Q3 adj EPS $2.25-2.75 vs est. $2.60; sees FY EPS $9.00-11.00 vs est. $10.04.
• Starwood Property (STWD) announces 25.5M share common stock offering; to acquire $2.2B Net Lease Platform currently owned by Brookfield Asst Mgt.

• Albermarle (ALB) and SQM (SQM) shares edge higher in lithium sector after China’s Zangge Mining halted lithium production at a unit in Qinghai province on orders from local officials, sending lithium prices up more than 4%. The miner received a notice from Haixi prefecture officials ordering an immediate halt to non-compliant mining. Production, which was forecast to hit 11,000 tons of lithium carbonate this year, can only resume with local government approval.
• Alcoa (AA) Q2 adj EPS $0.39 vs. est. $0.31; Q2 revs $3.01B vs. est. $2.9B; Q2 adj Ebitda $313M vs. est. $271.6M; expects 2025 total aluminum segment production to remain unchanged from its prior projection; for Q3, aluminum segment expects sequential unfavorable impacts of approximately $90M due to tariffs.
• AAR Corp. (AIR) Q4 adj EPS $1.16 vs est. $1.01, adj EBITDA $91Mm vs est. $82.67Mm on sales $755Mm vs est. $695.71Mm.
• GE Aerospace (GE) Q2 adj EPS $1.66 vs. consensus $1.40 and revs $11B vs. consensus $9.51B; raises FY25 adjusted EPS view $5.60-$5.80 from $5.10-$5.45 (est. $5.47); sees adj revenue growth in mid-teens versus previous view of low-double-digits. Sees operating profit $8.2B-$8.5B versus previous view $7.8B-$8.2B.
• Kinder Morgan (KMI) Q2 adj EPS $0.28 vs est. $0.28, adj EBITDA $1.972B vs est. $1.968B on revs $4.042B vs est. $3.829B; backlog $9.3B; guides FY adj EPS $1.27 vs est. $1.28 and adj EBITDA $8.3B vs est. $8.333B.
• MP Materials (MP) announces commencement of proposed $500M public offering of common stock.
• Popular Inc (BPOP) increases quarterly dividend to $0.75 and announces $500M share repurchase plan.
• Union Pacific (UNP) raises quarterly dividend by 3% to $1.38 per share.

• Citizens Financial (CFG) Q2 EPS $0.92 vs. est. $0.88; Q2 revs $2.04B vs. est. $2.01B; said results were paced by strong NII and fee growth, disciplined expense management
• Marsh McLennan (MMC) Q2 adj EPS $2.72 above consensus $2.67; Q2 revs $7.0B vs. est. $6.93B.
• Principal Financial Group Inc (PFG) said AUM is $752.7B as of June 30.
• Rexford Industrial (REXR) Q2 Core FFO/SHR $0.59 vs est. $0.59 on revs $249.5Mm vs est. $248.95Mm; same-property occupancy 96.1%; guides FY Core FFO/SHR $2.37-2.41 vs est. $2.40.
• SL Green Realty (SLG) Q2 FFO $1.63 vs. est. $1.38; raises 2025 FFO view to $5.65-$5.95 from $5.25-$5.55 vs. est. $5.47; Q2 Same-store cash net operating income (NOI) fell -1% and increased by 0.7% for 1H’25.
• Triumph Financial (TFIN) Q2 EPS $0.15 vs est. $0.06 on NII $88.678Mm vs est. $88.27Mm.

• Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) and Pfizer (PFE) plan to sell the widely used blood thinner Eliquis directly to patients at a discounted cash price — a move that follows the Trump administration’s pressure on the industry to cut drug prices. The companies, which have a joint venture that markets’ Eliquis, said the new service will allow uninsured or underinsured patients to buy the pill at more than 40% off the current list price starting Sept. 8. The service will provide direct shipping of the drug to patients in the U.S. https://tinyurl.com/5tm5nr2a
• Elevance Health (ELV) shares fell; Q2 adj EPS $8.84 misses the consensus $9.19; Q2 revs $49.4B vs. est. $48.26B; cuts FY25 adjusted EPS view to ~$30.00 from $34.15-$34.85 (est. $34.48); said given the ongoing and industry-wide impact of elevated cost trends in ACA and Medicaid, Elevance lowers guidance; saw membership losses in both Medicaid and ACA which resulted in higher acuity; said benefit expense ratio was 88.9% up 260 basis points y/y.
• Novartis (NVS) Q2 core EPS $2.42 vs. est. $2.37; Q2 revs $14.05B vs. est. $14.08B; launched a share buyback of up to $10 billion and raised its full-year profit guidance as now projects core operating profit to grow by a low-teens percentage this year v. prior view an increase by low double digits; said longtime financial chief Harry Kirsch would retire in March next year and be replaced by Mukul Mehta, its head of business planning and analysis, digital finance and tax.

• Newsmax (NMAX) expands carriage partnership with Fubo (FUBO), a multi-year partnership agreement with sports-first live TV streaming platform Fubo. The expanded agreement includes continued distribution of Newsmax and the launch of Newsmax en Español on Fubo.
• Vertiv Holdings (VRT) said to acquire custom rack solutions manufacturer Great Lakes for $200M.