Daily Commentary: July 17, 2025

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Good Overnight News

Posted by Pete Stolcers on July 17
www.oneoption.com

The market is poised to open higher this morning on good earnings and economic news.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – Yesterday the market probed for support and it tested the low from last week on news that Trump might fire Powell. He denied that rumor and stocks rebounded nicely and closed near their high for the day.

This morning initial jobless claims came in better than expected (221K vs 233K). Retail sales came in at .6% and that was better than expected (.1%). Philly Fed also came in better than expected (15.9 vs -1.2). Industrial Production and Empire Manufacturing also came in better than expected earlier in the week. CPI was a touch hot, but that was negated by a low PPI reading. In general, the economic data points have been good.

Earnings season is unfolding and the overnight news was good. PEP beat estimates and it is above the 100-day MA this morning. That could be a nice breakout. TSM will set the tone for semis and it is making a new all-time high this morning.

It certainly seems like it’s all systems go this morning. Europe and Asia were up nicely overnight and that is providing a tailwind. The S&P 500 is only up 5 points so we don’t need to feel like we are chasing. I would favor the long side from the open. Tech stocks should have a good day.

The market poked the low from July 7th and it flew off of that level. That is a sign that buyers are still engaged. The news has been good and there’s no huge overnight gap up. Don’t chase stocks with big gaps up, if you have a strong stock that opens a little higher, you can take starter longs a bit earlier than expected. Take starter long positions and add on strength. Watch for continual price confirmation. Relative strength is the ultimate form of confirmation. SPY red bar and stock has a green bar, that is confirmation. Price confirmation comes in the form of a single red candle followed by a green candle that closed above the high from the red candle.

When I post a rosy picture like this, some of you will back up the truck and load up on longs. Don’t be an idiot. We have major news pending in the next two weeks that will determine market direction for August and September. I am only taking very short term trades (day and overnight). I want to stay flexible the next two weeks and I want to see how all of this plays out.

Support is at SPY $623 and resistance is the all-time high.

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