Closing Recap

Wednesday, July 30, 2025

U.S. stocks were in a holding pattern all morning and early afternoon, staying in positive territory amid positive economic data and another slew of key earnings results that moved the needle on several stocks/sectors, as all awaited the FOMC rate policy meeting this afternoon. Stocks have been in an upward momentum movement since April, with any market dip shallow and aggressively bought, with this past week was no different following 6 consecutive record highs for the S&P 500, led by strength in technology, materials, industrials, utilities and financials. Stocks took a little breather today following the results of the FOMC policy meeting results and Fed Chair Powell press conference. While no changes were expected to rates during this meeting, investors showed disappointment behind Powell’s non-committal stance about a September rate cut focusing more on a “wait and see” approach on data the next 2 months. After the Powell conference, U.S. interest rates futures showed a 50% chance Fed lowering rates at least 25 bp (down from 68% after the initial policy statement) at September meeting and futures imply traders see 65% chance Fed lowering rates at least another 25 bp at December meeting. Next up is a big round of tech earnings tonight with META, MSFT, WDC, QCOM, among leaders. In addition to the Fed news, economic data, earnings and trade headlines, the President issues three executive orders including: 1) suspending de minimis exemption for commercial shipments globally (packages under $800 into the U.S. were duty free, now all packages pay tariffs), 2) formalized a copper tariff to 50% starting Friday (sunk copper futures) and 3) lifted tariffs on Brazil from 10% to 50%. A busy day in a busy week…that just gets busier with more data tomorrow (PCE inflation) and Friday (nonfarm payrolls), and more earnings (AAPL, AMZN)!

As expected, the Federal Reserve held interest rates on hold at 4.5% for the July meeting steady, as the 2-day meeting generated the largest number of dissenting votes by governors at the U.S. Central bank since 1993 (Fed Waller and Bowman both wanted rate cut. That marked the first time two members of the Board of Governors formally dissented on a decision by the policy-setting FOMC in 3 decades. The latest dissents were not a surprise, as both Waller and Bowman had signaled ahead of the policy meeting their openness to easing rates. “The unemployment rate remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated,” the central bank said in a policy statement. The policy statement did note that economic growth “moderated in the first half of the year,” possibly bolstering the case to lower rates at a future meeting.

In trade/tariff news, President Trump signed an executive order implementing an additional 40% tariff on Brazil, bringing total tariff amount to 50% (ERJ, EWZ fell); Trump signed a proclamation to address effects of copper imports on America’s national security (sunk shares of FCX); Trump said the U.S. is currently negotiating with India, after announcing earlier in the day the U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from the country starting August 1. Trump said, I will be meeting with South Korean trade delegation this afternoon – South Korea is right now at a 25% tariff, but they have an offer to buy down those tariffs.” On Tuesday, Trump said he would start imposing measures on Russia, such as secondary tariffs of 100% on trading partners, if it did not make progress on ending the war in Ukraine within 10 to 12 days, moving up from an earlier 50-day deadline.

• US advance Q2 GDP +3.0% (above consensus +2.4%); advance Q2 final sales +6.3% (vs. consensus +2.5%); advance Q2 consumer spending +1.4%; advance Q2 GDP deflator +2.0% (below consensus +2.1%); advance Q2 PCE price index +2.1% (consensus +2.9%) while advance Q2 core PCE +2.5% (consensus +2.3%).
• The National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday Pending Home sales, based on signed contracts, fell 0.8% last month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast contracts, which become sales after a month or two, advancing 0.3%. Pending Home sales decreased 2.8% from a year earlier.
• US Treasury announces $125B refunding through October 2025, to raise new cash of $35.2B; US Treasury to keep coupon, floating rate note auction sizes ‘for at least the next several quarters; US Treasury to sell $58B in 3-year notes, $42B in 10-year notes, $25B in 30-year bonds next week; US Treasury to address seasonal, unexpected variations in borrowing needs in next quarter via changes in regular bill auction sizes and/or cash management bills.

• U.S. crude stocks and distillate inventories rose while gasoline inventories fell in the week ending July 25, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories rose by 7.7 million barrels to 426.7 million barrels last week, vs. poll for a 1.3-million-barrel draw. Crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery rose by 690,000 barrels. U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 2.7 million barrels vs expectations in a Reuters poll for a 0.6-million-barrel draw.​
• August gold prices fell -$28.40 or 0.84% to settle at $3,352.80 an ounce ahead of the FOMC policy meeting which weas released 30 minutes later. The dollar extended its weekly gains on trade deal news this week, rising to 5-week highs while the euro dipped below the $1.15 level and the dollar rose around 149 vs. the yen. Copper futures tumbled after Trump signed a proclamation to address effects of copper imports on America’s national security, by imposing a 50% tariff on copper and products that contain it.
• Treasury yields dipped from intraday peaks after the FOMC headlines noting no change to rates and that two Fed Governors dissented wanting a rate cut; the 10-year is at 4.342% and the two-year at 3.872%. The Fed decision and communication broadly meet expectations, ahead of Chair Powell’s Q&A, and Treasury yields lose some ground

• In Food: MDLZ reported Q2 results that met the consensus bar on top-line, but with weaker vol/mix that was attributed to consumer weakness + de-stocking in the US, and a heat wave in Europe. HSY Q2 EPS $1.21 vs. est. $1.00; Q2 revs $2.61B vs. est. $2.52B; cuts FY25 adjusted EPS view to $5.81-$6.00 from $6.00-$6.18 (est. $5.86) while backs FY25 revenue viewed up at least 2%. KHC reported sales that topped estimates, pointing to progress in winning over inflation-weary shoppers. FDP rallies on earnings results.
• In Restaurants: SBUX reported Q3 EPS of $0.50 missed consensus by $0.15, reflecting $0.11 from one-time investments and discrete tax items, lower equity income, and slightly softer comps…but shares rose amid signs of turnaround progress continuing to build, including U.S. comp transactions improving for a third consecutive quarter; WING shares surged after raised its annual forecast for global unit growth rate range to 17% to 18%, from prior range 16% to 17% following a Q2 beat helped by an increase in royalty revenue, franchise fees and advertising fees; CAKE reported solid Q2 results, with adjusted earnings upside despite an in-line comp.

• In Autos: Porsche (POAHY) cut its full-year profitability target by saying they expect group sales this year in the range of 37B to 38B euros, in line with its previous forecast, and a return on sales of between 5% and 7%, down from a previously expected 6.5% to 8.5% range. Mercedes (MBGYY) also quantified the tariff hit on its core car division at approximately 1.5 percentage points of its operating margin, equivalent to around $420 million in the Q2; CAR falls on lower Q2 profit said it saw a decline in revenue in its core Americas business; reported $5 million in net income, or 10 cents a share, down from $14.5 million y/y; revs were also down y/y but above consensus while revenue per day was down 1%.
• In Casinos & Gaming: RRR reported Las Vegas segment revenue (ex. $10m NF Management) of $513.3m (our $485m and Street $479m) and Las Vegas EBITDA of $239m (our $211m and Street $218m). Segment EBITDA margins came in higher, at 46.7%; CZR Q2 Digital segment has finally inflected and shows signs of busting through the $500M “target” with upside from there, but Stifel warned there are fears around the health of the Strip and concerns with margins in regionals.
• In Lodging & Online Travel: BKNG shares slipped after results, downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Wedbush noting that Booking reported healthy Q2 results, while guidance for Q3 was weak versus expectations. Wedbush points out that Q3 guidance was disappointing relative to initial estimates, with room night growth, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA below consensus expectations at the midpoint of the guide.

• EXE reported Q2 volumes at the high end of guidance, while the company lowered F2025 capital guidance by ~$100mm (volume guidance unchanged) and raised its FCF outlook for 2025/26 by ~$425mm/$500mm respectively
• NXT beat estimates and raised revenue and profitability guidance for the year. The company announced new acquisitions in robotics and AI
• NOV was downgraded from Overweight to Neutral at JP Morgan following earnings citing continued macro headwinds, which are causing delays to deepwater FIDs, declines in global drilling activity, and slowing orders for capital equipment.
• SEDG rises after announcing a supply agreement deal with Solar Landscape.

• In Crypto: COIN, beginning this fall, users will be able to use JPM credit cards to make purchases on Coinbase; MARA delivered a strong set of 2Q25 results, highlighted by record revenue ($238.5m, +64% y/y) and strong q/q adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of ~970bps to 22.2%. With revenue per Bitcoin mined in 2Q25 reaching ~$101k, MARA is set to deliver strong q/q growth in 3Q25

• In Insurance/brokers: AON was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Jefferies saying it is positioned to show accelerating margin expansion driven by continued favorable organic growth, productivity gains, and cost savings; views Aon as best positioned to see organic upside from M&A rebound and anticipate longer term benefit from middle market expansion.
• In Lending: LC shares’ rise as Q2 operating results beat the Street driven by higher revenue and a lower provision but was partially offset by higher expenses.  In addition, LendingClub exceeded its Q225 guidance for both originations and PPNR.

• BXP reported FFO at $1.71 (2Q25 midpoint guide $1.66), a 4c beat versus our model. The beat was primarily driven by lower opex (taxes) being pushed into 3Q and G&A. Core operating metrics were mixed – occupancy declined 50bps sequentially to 86.4% (89.1% leased).
• ESS 2Q reported a solid 2Q25 beat (+5c, or +1.2%) and raised its FY25 FFO guide (+10c, ~+1% at midpoint). However, ESS also cut its FY25 blended rent growth guide.
• HIW reported 2Q25 FFO of $0.89, 4c ahead of both Street and Mizuho. The beat was primarily better other Income – $3mm one-time payment and $1mm of term fee offset by $1mm in higher G&A – so net-net 3c. Core operating metrics showed sequential improvement: same-store occupancy rose 10bps to 85.6%.
• REG exceeding elevated expectations, blowing away consensus (by 4c, or 3.5%) with robust (>7%) ss-NOI growth stemming from numerous tailwinds, including robust leasing, SNO, and minimal tenant credit disruption. Further, REG upped its FY25 ss-NOI (by 110bps) and FFO guides (by 6c, or 1% and +7% YOY)

• BIIB early Alzheimer’s patients continue to benefit from four years of LEQEMBI Therapy; data showed LEQEMBI slowed clinical decline by 1.75 points on CDR-SB at four years compared to the natural history of Alzheimer’s Disease
• CELC announced 1.837M share Secondary, priced at $38.00.
• IONS raises FY25 revenue view to $825M-$850M from $725M-$750M and sees FY25 Tryngolza revenue $75M-$80M.
• NAMS shares rise on BIIB news; BIIB says its cholesterol drug shows signs of preventing Alzheimer’s; NewAmsterdam Pharma hopes medicine born out of big failures may have an unexpected benefit.
• REPL shares rose; Jefferies noted Within ~10days, FDA changed its stance and removed voluntary hold on SRPT’s gene Tx in ambulatory DMD pts, after reviewing PT safety data and likely considering broad feedback from pts/physicians – says this likely helps REPL which waits to meet w/ the FDA soon.
• SUPN was upgraded from Neutral to Overweight at Cantor and raised tgt to $42 given its more positive outlook on Qelbree and new upside in its PT relative to where the stock is trading.
• TEVA rallied early after reported a better-than-expected increase in second-quarter profit, helped by a 26% rise in sales of its branded drugs and said it was well positioned to mitigate potential U.S. tariffs.
• VRDN entered into a collaboration/license agreement with Kissei for Veligrotug and VRDN-003 in Japan for $70MM up-front, up to $315MM in milestones, and tiered royalties of 20 to mid-30%.
• VYNE shares tumble after announces topline results from phase 2B trial with repibresib gel in nonsegmental vitiligo saying the trial did not meet primary endpoint or key secondary endpoint of f-vasi50 and f-vasi75; will terminate extension phase of trial and seek external partner for continued development of repibresib.

• HUM raised its annual profit forecast to be about $17 per share, compared with its previous estimate of about $16.25 (est. $16.38), as the U.S. health insurer bets on its efforts to rein in higher medical costs; reported Q2 medical cost ratio of 89.7%, up from 88.9% a year earlier, but in line with analysts’ estimates of 89.71%
• TDOC lowered full-year 2025 EBITDA guidance from $263-304 mln to $263-294 mln (and guiding 3Q25 EBITDA to $56-70 mln; below $76 mln Street estimate) primarily due to continued pressure on BetterHelp cash-pay virtual behavioral health business (and -$3 mln tariff impact).

• In Industrial: GNRC reports better-than-expected second-quarter profit and revenue, helped by robust sales of its generators and higher margins (EPS $1.65 vs. est. $1.32) on better margins 39.3% vs 37.6% a year ago; though narrows its annual net sales growth forecast to between 2% and 5% vs its prior view of flat to 7%

• ASH shares rose despite Q1 revs and ebitda missing.
• ERJ shares jumped after U.S. President Trump’s executive order to impose tariffs on Brazil excluded civil aircraft and parts.
• FCX shares fell after the White House signed a proclamation ordering tariffs on copper imports, citing national security, the White House said. The proclamation imposes a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivative products as of Aug. 1.
• OI shares tumbled on results as midpoint of year profit guide was below views.
• PPG reported JunQ25 adj. EPS of $2.22 and said organic sales expected flat to +LSD% Y/Y; volume grew +1% Y/Y in JunQ25.
• SLGN shares tumbled on earnings miss ($1.01 vs. est. $1.03) and slightly better revs.
• SMG shares sunk after posting Q3 revs that missed consensus, but better EPS on better margins growing to 32.1% on an adjusted basis from 29.2% a year earlier.
• TKR falls after trimming its yearly profit outlook.

• ETSY shares rally on Q2 beat, revs reached $672.7M above ests $647.2M, while Q2 gross merchandise sales falls 4.8% vs a decline of 6.5% in Q1.
• In Smartphones, per Canalys, US smartphone shipments grew 1% YoY to ~27M units in Q225, as vendors continued to frontload device inventories amid tariff concerns; China’s share of shipments shrank to 25% in Q225 from 61% in Q224, while India’s share surged to 44% in Q225 from 13% in Q224; AAPL led the market with a 49% shipment share.

• EA rises as Q1 bookings beat expectations ahead of a crucial few months for game releases.
• PANW announces agreement to acquire CYBR in deal valued at $25B, a 26% premium as CYBR holders to receive $45 cash and 2.2005 shares of PANW.
• VRT Q2 adj EPS $0.95 vs. est. $0.83; Q2 revs $2.64B tops consensus $2.36B; Q2 backlog was $8.5B and a book-to-bill ratio of approximately 1.2x for the quarter; raises FY25 adjusted EPS view to $3.75-$3.85 from $3.45-$3.65 (est. $3.58) and raises FY25 revenue view to $9.93B-$10.08B from $9.33B-$9.58B vs. est. $9.45B.

• Figma Partners (FIG) is looking to raise $1.18 billion by selling nearly 37 million shares priced between $30 and $32 each, which compares with its prior proposed price target of between $25 and $28 each when it is expected to price tonight in its IPO unveiling. The new valuation puts Figma closer to the $20 billion it had commanded when ADBE agreed to buy it
• MRVL shares jumped after 3^rd party research firm Fubon said that MSFT appears to be placing "higher expectations on Maia300 by MRVL, rather than Maia200 which is its own solution."
• QRVO reported strong June results, beating street expectations by a wide margin for both the June quarter as well as for the September guide, benefiting from strong content gains at its largest customer, which is more than offsetting planned Android declines.
• STX shares fell as earnings beat, but guidance disappoints; was upgraded from Neutral to Overweight at Cantor; STX reported a good JunQ at $2.44B/$2.59 (cons $2.42B/$2.45) and guided in-line SepQ to $2.5B/$2.30 with higher GMT/2028 convert dilution impacting EPS.
• TER shares surged as Q2 non-GAAP EPS $0.57 tops $0.54 estimate on revs $652M vs. est. $651.79M; said have seen a surge in demand as semiconductor makers invest in quality control while scaling up capacity to meet an artificial intelligence-led boom; guides Q3 revs $710M-$770M vs. est. $753M.