Early Look

Thursday, July 31, 2025

U.S. futures are soaring higher, well above recent record highs for the Nasdaq (up over 300 points) and the S&P 500 (Spuz +1% at 6,457) following massive earnings beats for Microsoft (MSFT +8%) and Meta (META +11.75%), along with news of a new trade deal with South Korea overnight. The Russell 200 futures are flat to down slightly given the rotation back into large caps after a strong night of earnings. The U.S. dollar adds to gains as well, staying at 5-week highs while Treasury yields slip. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index jumped 415 points to 41,069, the Shanghai Index fell -42 points to 3,573, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -403 points to 24,773. In Europe, the German DAX is up 60 points to 24,322, while the FTSE 100 rises 46 points to 9,183. The Bank of Japan kept policy unchanged as expected, keeping rates on hold at 0.5% in a unanimous vote, while lifting its near-term inflation forecasts.

In a post on Truth Social media last night: Trump said: “I am pleased to announce that the United States of America has agreed to a Full and Complete Trade Deal with the Republic of Korea. The Deal is that South Korea will give to the United States $350B Dollars for Investments owned and controlled by the United States, and selected by myself, as President. Additionally, South Korea will purchase $100B Dollars of LNG, or other Energy products and, further, South Korea has agreed to invest a large sum of money for their Investment purposes.”

After a brief dip for major averages on Wednesday following lowered rate cut expectations by the Fed after Chairman Powell remained non-committal about a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, the tech heavy Nasdaq got another bout of good news overnight as the AI trade remains alive and well following massive beats and upbeat commentary about cap-ex guidance from META and MSFT, boosting shares of both overnight and lifting much of the AI space (Data center, nuclear utility, semi chips, etc.). In software, an oversubscribed IPO priced last night after Figma (FIG) 36.94M share IPO priced at $33.00, above the $30-$32 price range expected. Some massive moves overnight in tech after solid earnings/guidance continues with more than 10% jumps for names APLD, CGNX, EBAY, PI along with the META/MSFT strength and ahead of earnings from AAPL/AMZN tonight. Healthcare seeing strong results this morning for a change with CVS, BIIB, CI all rising pre-mkt on beat and raise quarters. Shares of LRCX, QCOM, FORM, and ARM down by over -6% in semis after results last night as that group one of few weak spots early this morning.

Yesterday, Fed Chairman Powell reiterated in his press conference that the current stance of policy left the Fed well positioned. Overall, he believes inflation is further from the Fed’s goal than employment. He noted that the growth moderation largely reflected a consumer slowdown and that tariffs were pushing up some goods prices. He said the reasonable base case is for short-lived impact. He said that it’s appropriate for policy to be modestly restrictive

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -171.71 points, or 0.38%, to 44,461.28
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 31.38 points, or 0.15%, to 21,129.67
• The Russell 2000 Index declined by -10.57 points, or 0.47% to 2,232.40

• 8:30 AM ET                  Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 224K
• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims…est. 1.955M
• 8:30 AM ET                  Personal Income M/M for June…est. 0.2%
• 8:30 AM ET                  Personal Spending M/M for June…est. +0.4%
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index M/M for June…est. +0.3% (prior +0.1%)
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index Y/Y for June…est. +2.5% (prior +2.3%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Core-PCE Price Index M/M for June…est. +0.3% (prior +0.2%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Core PCE Price Index Y/Y for June…est. +2.7% (prior +2.7%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Employment Cost index (ECI) for Q2…est. +0.8% (prior +0.9%)
• 9:45 AM ET                  Chicago PMI for July…est. 42.0 (prior 40.4)
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AAPL ACCO ADC AJG AMZN APPF ASUR ATR AXTI BE BIO BJRI BOOT BZH CABO CACC CCCS CLX COHU COIN COLM CORT CPS CPT CUBE CUZ CVCO CWST DLB DXC EGO EIX EMN ENVX ES EXPO FBIN FIVN FND FSLR GDYN HR HUBG HUN ILMN IR IRTC KLAC KWR LEG LOCO LPLA LUMN MATX MIR MNMD MPWR MSTR MTD MTZ MX NET NOG NVST OFS OHI OLED PCOR PK PRO RDDT RGA RIOT RKT RMD ROG ROKU RYAN SEM SM SPXC SVV SYK TREE VALE WEAV WK WSC WTRG ZEUS ZYXI

• Monthly Auto Sales figures for July
• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final for July

• Bank of Japan kept policy unchanged as expected, keeping rates on hold at 0.5% in a unanimous vote, while lifting its near-term inflation forecasts. The decision was widely expected and came alongside updated projections that showed core CPI is now seen at 2.7% in fiscal 2025, up from 2.2% in April, driven largely by food price pressures.
• The Japanese yen is now about 0.2% weaker against the dollar, having erased an earlier gain after BOJ Governor Ueda reduced expectations of a near-term rate increase.
• Japanese industrial production and retail sales came in stronger than expected, easing concerns over the drag from US tariffs. Industrial output jumped 1.7% MoM (est. -0.8%, prev. -0.1%), the strongest gain since February. On a YoY basis, production rose 4.0% (est. 1.3%, prev. 2.4%).
• China official PMI surveys for July both underwhelmed market expectations and showed that activity slowed broadly at the start of the second half. Specifically, manufacturing PMI declined to 49.3 (est. 49.7; prev. 49.7), while non-manufacturing gauge edged lower to 50.1 (est. 50.2; prev. 50.5). 
• South Korea secured a last-minute agreement with the US, reducing the punitive tariff on its exports, including automobiles, to 15% from the initially proposed 25%. This agreement, which excludes steel, aluminium and copper, also includes pledges for $100bn in LNG purchases and a substantial $350bn in investment or 20% of South Korea’s GDP.
• Late yesterday, President Trump escalated trade pressure on other partners, imposing 50% tariffs on Brazil, unveiling new copper product tariffs and targeting India with 25% tariffs and penalties due to its energy ties with Russia.
• Copper prices plunged in late overnight trading after President Trump unexpectedly exempt refined metal from US import tariffs. Prices previously surged to records this month after Trump said he would impose a 50% import tax on copper.

• Ford Motor (F) Q2 adj EPS $0.37 vs est. $0.33 on revs $50.2B vs est. $43.206B; guides FY adj op Inc $6.5-7.5B vs est. $6.77B, sees FY net tariff related headwind of $3B gross adverse adj op Inc hit, partially offset by $1B recovery actions
• MGM Resorts (MGM) Q2 adj EPS $0.79 vs. est. $0.55; Q2 revs $4.4B vs. est. $4.32B; Q2 adj Ebitda $648M; China unit reported a 9% revenue growth at $1.11 billion; Revenue from its regional operations segment, which encompasses casinos in U.S. markets outside Las Vegas, also rose 4% to $964.6 million; Q2 Room Revenue: $767M -> $735M (a 4% drop) and Reve per Available Room: $240M -> $235M) (2% drop).
• Rush Street Interactive (RSI) Q2 EPS $0.12 vs. est. $0.06; Q2 revs $269.22M vs. est. $249.65M; posted 9th consecutive quarter of improving both revenue and adjusted EBITDA q/q; online casino revenue growing 25% and online sports betting up 15%; sees FY25 revenue $1.05B-$1.1B, vs. consensus $1.06B.
• Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) Q2 EPS $1.35 vs est. $1.24 on sales $2.22B vs est. $2.172B, comps +10.2%; guides Q3 comps +6-8% and EPS $1.12-1.16 vs est. $1.13; sees FY comps +7.5-9.0% and sales growth +14.5-16% vs est. +13.84%.

• Albermarle (ALB) Q2 adj EPS $0.11 vs est. ($0.82), adj EBITDA $336.5Mm vs est. $195.7Mm on revs $1.33B vs est. $1.215B; maintains FY outlook considerations, expects to generate positive FCF for FY
• FMC Corp. (FMC) Q2 adj EPS $0.69 vs. est. $0.62; Q2 revs $1.05B vs. est. $994.5M; backs FY25 adjusted EPS view $3.26-$3.70 (est. $3.43) and sees FY25 revenue $4.08B-$4.28B, vs. est. $4.2B; Free cash flow forecast remains $200M-$400M, reflecting a decline of 51 percent at the midpoint from prior year.

• Applied Digital (APLD) Q4 adj EPS ($0.03) vs est. ($0.15) on revs $38Mm vs est. $37.1Mm.
• Equinix (EQIX) Q2 AFFO/shr $9.91 vs est. $9.30 on revs $2.256B vs est. $2.257B; guides Q3 sales $2.314-2.334B vs est. $2.341B and FY revs $9.233-9.33B vs est. $9.228B, adj EBITDA $4.517-4.597B vs est. $4.491B and AFFO/shr $37.67-38.48 vs est. $37.85.
• Extra Space Storage (EXR) Q2 AFFO/shr $2.05 vs est. $2.06 on revs $841.6Mm vs est. $761.95Mm; guides AFFO/shr $8.05-8.25 vs est. $8.20 on same-store revs -0.5% to +1.0%.
• Fair Isaac (FICO) Q3 adj EPS $8.57 vs est. $7.70 on revs $536.415Mm vs est. $515.2Mm; guides FY revs $1.98B vs est. $1.981B and adj EPS $29.15 vs est. $29.29
• Ventas Inc. (VTR) Q2 normalized FFO/SHR $0.87 vs est. $0.85 on revs $1.42B vs est. $1.375B; guides FY normalized FFO/SHR $3.41-3.46 vs est. $3.45 and prior guide $3.36-3.46.

• Biogen (BIIB) Q2 EPS $5.47 topped the $3.86 estimate on revs $2.6B vs. est. $2.32B; lifts 2025 adjusted profit per share between $15.50 and $16.00, compared to prior expectations of $14.50 to $15.50 (est. $14.68).
• Cigna (CI) Q2 adjusted EPS $7.20 tops consensus $7.15; Q2 revs rose 11% y/y to $67.18B vs. est. $62.61B; FY25 adjusted EPS view at least $29.60, vs. consensus $29.69; Growth in Cigna’s Evernorth Health Services division drove revenue, the Bloomfield, Conn., company said. Adjusted revenue in Evernorth, which offers pharmacy benefit services, increased 17%. That figure declined 18% in Cigna’s namesake segment.
• CVS Corp. (CVS) Q2 adj EPS $1.81 vs. est. $1.46; Q2 revs $98.92B vs. est. $94.5B; outlook FY adj eps $6.30 to $6.40 vs est. $6.12; Q2 medical benefit ratio increased to 89.9% vs estimate 91.16%; said recorded $833 mln in litigation charges in Q2
• DexCom (DXCM) Q2 adj EPS $0.48 vs est. $0.44, adj op Inc $221.8Mm vs est. $206.9Mm on revs $1.157B vs est. $1.124B; guides FY revs $4.6-4.625B vs est. $4.616B.
• Guardant Health (GH) Q2 EPS loss (-$0.44) vs. est. loss (-$0.51); Q2 revs $232.1M vs. est. $211.3M; said saw especially strong performance from Guardant360 Liquid; raises FY25 revenue view to $915M-$925M from $880M-$890M (est. $885.1M) while Oncology revenue is now expected to grow approximately 20% y/y in 2025, compared to prior guidance of approximately 18% growth.
• Hologic (HOLX) Q3 adj EPS $1.08 vs. est. $1.05; Q3 revs $1.023B vs. est. $1.01B; raises FY25 EPS view to $4.23-$4.26 from $4.15-$4.25, consensus $4.18 and narrows FY25 revenue view to $4.081B-$4.091B from $4.05B-$4.1B, consensus $4.07B

• Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) shares rise; Q4 EPS $3.65 vs. est. 43.37; Q4 revs $76.44B vs. est. $73.89B; Q4 intelligent cloud revs $29.88B, vs. est. $29.1B; Q4 Azure & other cloud rev ex-fx +39%, vs. est. +34.2%; ed full-year capex by $10 billion to $85 billion to support surging demand for its cloud services.
• Arm Holdings (ARM) Q1 adj EPS $0.35 vs est. $0.35 on revs $1.05B vs est. $1.06B; guides Q2 revs $1.01-1.11B vs est. $1.06B and adj EPS $0.29-0.37 vs est. $0.36.
• Cognex (CGNX) Q2 adj EPS $0.25 vs. est. $0.24; Q2 revs $249M vs. est. $246.11M; sees Q3 adjusted EPS $0.24-$0.29 vs. est. $0.24; sees Q3 revenue $245M-$265M vs. est. $248.19M.
• Cognizant Technology (CTSH) Q2 adj EPS $1.31 vs. est. $1.26; Q2 revs $5.25B vs. est. $5.19B; raises FY25 adjusted EPS view to $5.08-$5.22 from $4.98-$5.14 and boosts FY25 revenue view to $20.7B-$21.B from $20.5B-$21B.
• eBay Inc. (EBAY) Q2 adj EPS $1.37 vs. est. $1.30; Q2 revs $2.7B vs. est. $2.64B; sees Q3 adjusted EPS $1.29-$1.34, vs. consensus $1.30 and revs $2.69B-$2.74B above est. $2.65B; sees Q3 GMV $19.2B-$19.6B after Q2 GMV $19.5B.
• Figma (FIG) 36.94M share IPO priced at $33.00.
• F5 Networks (FFIV) Q3 adj EPS $4.16 vs. est. $3.50; Q3 revs $780M vs. est. $752.64M; sees Q4 adj EPS $3.87-$3.99, vs. consensus $3.84 and sees Q4 revenue $780M-$800M, vs. consensus $779.21M
• FormFactor (FORM) Q2 non-GAAP EPS $0.27 misses the $0.30 estimate; Q2 revs $195.8M vs. est. $190.17M; sees Q3 EPS $0.25 plus/minus 4c vs. est. $0.30 and revs $200M, plus/minus $5M vs. est. $199.46M.
• Impinj (PI) shares surge; Q2 adj EPS $0.80 vs est. $0.71, adj EBITDA $27.6Mm vs est. $23.45Mm on revs $97.894Mm vs est. $93.81Mm; guides Q3 revs $91.0-94.0Mm vs est. $85.92Mm, adj EBITDA $15.6-17.1Mm vs est. $9.827Mm and adj EPS $0.47-0.51 vs est. $0.37.
• Lam Research (LRCX) Q4 adj EPS $1.33 vs est. $1.21 on revs $5.17B vs est. $5.008B, adj gr mgn 50.3%; guides Q1 revs $4.9-5.5B vs est. $4.632B, adj gr mgn 49-51%, adj op mgn 33-35% and adj EPS $1.10-1.30 vs est. $1.00.
• PTC Inc. (PTC) Q3 adj EPS $1.64 vs est. $1.21 on revs $644Mm vs est. $582.9Mm; guides FY revs $2.57-2.63B vs est. $2.502B, adj EPS $6.63-7.03 vs est. $6.12 and FCF $850Mm.
• Qualcomm (QCOM) Q3 adj EPS $2.77 vs est. $2.71 on revs $10.37B vs est. $10.35B; guides Q4 revs $10.3-11.1B vs est. $10.64B and adj EPS $2.75-2.95 vs est. $2.83; on track to meet FY accelerated buyback commitment
• Tetra tech (TTEK) Q3 adj EPS $0.43 vs est. $0.38 on revs $1.37B vs. est. $1.146B; guides Q4 revs $1.0-1.1B vs est. $1.125B and EPS $0.38-0.43 vs est. $0.41
• Western Digital (WDC) Q4 adj EPS $1.66 vs est. $1.48 on revs $2.605B vs est. $2.47B; guides Q1 revs $2.7B vs est. $2.539B and adj EPS $1.54 vs est. $1.38.