Closing Recap

Thursday, July 24, 2025

New day, same result as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both post fresh record highs amid another broad-based rally that saw financials and industrials back near record highs while big Tech (which carries a bigger weighting in indexes – as the Mag-7 of Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla—now make up 33.4% of the S&P 500.”) continues to power stock markets higher. The Nasdaq posted its 63rd consecutive day above its 20-day moving average — the longest streak since 1999 as per Bloomberg, showing the ongoing upward momentum for chips/mega cap/AI plays. Alphabet (GOOGL) drove the move in Nasdaq after saying demand for AI products boosted quarterly sales and talked about an extreme increase in capital spending (boosting several semiconductors). There has been absolutely zero fear for investors since the April stock market swoon on tariff fears, a straight shot up since for roughly 3-months as earnings have come in better, geopolitical issues have quieted down (Iran/Israel, Russia/Ukraine) and lately, trade deal issues are getting resolved ahead of the August 1^st deadline (at least for some of the bigger players China, Japan, likely EU). Gold prices slipped, while Bitcoin/Ethereum rose, the dollar was mixed and Treasury yields edged higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell short of its all-time highs as IBM results weighed on results. The European Central Bank keeps interest rates steady at 2.15%, pausing after seven straight cuts. In weekly sentiment data: 1) The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was +2.8 vs +0.3 last week. Bulls fall to 36.8% from 39.3%, Neutrals rise to 29.2% from 21.8%, Bears fall to 34% from 39%. 2) This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index reading dipped to 81.07, falling from last week’s 83.69 – off recent highest reading of 99.30 on 7/2 (now falling for 4-straight weeks) – recent trough from 4-17 of 35.16 – Last Quarter Average (Q2) of 73.28.

• S&P Global July flash manufacturing PMI at 49.5 (vs 52.9 in June); U.S. S&P Global July flash composite PMI at 54.6 (vs 52.9 in June); U.S. S&P Global July flash services PMI at 55.2 (vs 52.9 in June).
• June single-family home sales rose +0.6% to 627K unit ann. Rate, vs. est. 650K; June home sales Northeast -27.6%, Midwest +6.3%, South +5.1%, West -8.4%; June new home supply 9.8 months’ worth at current pace vs May 9.7 months; median sale price $401,800, -2.9% from June 2024 ($414,000).

• U.S. WTI crude oil futures settle at $66.03/bbl, up 78 cents, 1.20%
• Brent Crude futures settle at $69.18/bbl, up 67 cents, 0.98%.
• U.S. Treasury prices declined, sending yields higher for a second straight day with the 10-yr above 4.4% as U.S. data pointed to a resilient labor market, further lifting Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices.
• Fed policymakers will meet next week but the market is not expecting changes to interest rates at that meeting. Rates futures traders are betting on a total of nearly two 25-basis point rate cuts by the end of this year.

• CMG shares fell; Q2 results included in-line EPS, as better-than-expected store level margin offset a ~110 bps comp store sales growth shortfall; lowered its annual sales growth target to be about flat y/y, compared with its prior view for growth in the low single-digit range.
• LVMUY reported weaker Q2 sales falling -4% to $22.96B vs. est. for a (-3%) decline, while sales at the group’s fashion and leather division fell -9% vs. est. for -6%; shares of luxury retailers were active on the results TPR, RL, CPRI, BURBY, CFRUY.
• MAT shares fell after cutting 2025 net sales to rise 1%-3%, compared with its February target of 2%-3% increase while EPS lowered to $1.54-$1.66 range, below prior estimate of $1.66-$1.72.
• TSCO after Q2 results beat estimates; posts 1.5% rise in comparable store sales in Q2 vs expectations of a 0.54% rise; maintains its annual forecast unchanged.
• WMT is overhauling its AI agent strategy as it aims to simplify the user experience, the WSJ reports. Agents refer to artificial intelligence tools that can independently take some action on behalf of a user, and Walmart in recent months has built dozens.

• LVS Q2 results topped estimates at $0.79/$3.18B vs. est. $0.53/$2.84B
• TNL was upgraded to Outperform at Mizuho, noting shares have outperformed the broader market, but have lagged HGV, Mizuho’s top pick for timeshare (HGV ~30%, TNL ~22%, S&P ~8% YTD).

• RUN and TSLA launch home energy plans to cut costs and boost backup power for Texans
• SEI Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $60.6M easily beat its $53.0M forecast and the $52.3M consensus and raised Q325 EBITDA guidance to $58-63M from $55-60M.
• TTE said it is working on the sale of stakes in renewable energy assets in France, Germany and the U.S., which it expects to generate around $1.5B; also reported 14% profit beat for Q2 results.

• BKU downgraded from Overweight to Neutral at Piper noting since the early March pullback in bank stocks, BKU shares have outperformed by ~12% and are now up ~4% YTD.
• CBVF upgraded to Outperform at KBW Inc as benefits from years of strategic investments are beginning to take effect, most clearly demonstrated by the 42bps of NIM expansion YTD.
• CME downgraded to Neutral from Buy following strong outperformance (+19% YTD) noting geopolitical uncertainty has helped drive volumes and the stock higher over the past year, but activity has slowed.
• KEY downgraded to Neutral on full valuation at Citigroup
• LAZ profit rises as advisory business gets a lift from dealmaking rebound
• NDAQ Q2 profit and revenue rise with EPS $0.85/$2.09B vs. est. $0.81/$1.28B, reflecting sustained consumer demand despite broader macro uncertainty.
• NTRS upgraded from Underperform to Peer Perform at Wolfe Research saying they are growing more constructive on the outlook for NTRS following Q2 earnings.

• PYPL closed above its 200dma resistance of $76.71 and highest levels since late February, rising a 6^th day.

• CB was downgraded from Overweight to Neutral at Piper and tgt to $283 from $335 saying as the insurance cycle begins to soften, believes CB will not be able to avoid the effects of the softening cycle.
• GSHD downgraded from Overweight to Neutral at Piper after its Q225 earnings results.

• GTY reported 2Q25 AFFO of $0.59, which slightly missed consensus of $0.60; management raised its FY25 AFFO guidance due to solid YTD investment activity and resolution of the Zips bankruptcy.
• NTST reported 2Q25 AFFO of $0.33, which beat consensus ($0.32) and raised its FY25 AFFO guidance midpoint by $0.01 to a new range of $1.29-$1.31 (consensus at $1.29) driven by management increasing net investment activity guidance to a new range of $125M-$175M ($75M-$125M prior).

• RCKT said it was reducing headcount by about 30% and its 12-month cash burn by nearly 25%; it is restructuring its drug development program to focus on its cardiovascular therapies and its main gene therapy candidate
• RHHBY announced a restructuring that will include layoffs affecting 30% of its employees. The company is reducing its cash burn by 25% to focus on gene therapies for cardiovascular conditions.
• SRPT shares fell as STAT News reported Sarepta would have to conduct new studies to get back on market, FDA official says.
• VKTX shares slide after posting a larger-than-expected Q2 EPS loss; said remain on track to announce top-line data from the VENTURE-Oral study in the second half of the year.
• WST shares surge on results and guidance; reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings and raised their full-year guidance on EPS $6.65-$6.85 from $6.15-$6.35 and revs to $3.4B-43.06B from $2.945B-$2.975B.

• ICLR rises on results; adj EPS $3.26 vs. est. $3.18; Q2 revs $2.02B vs. est. $1.98; sees FY25 adjusted EPS $13.00-$14.00 vs. est. $13.25 and sees FY25 revenue $7.85B-$8.15B vs. consensus $7.96B; authorizes $500M expansion to share repurchase program.
• LH raises annual profit forecast on strong diagnostic testing demand; now expects its 2025 adjusted profit to be between $16.05 and $16.50 per share, compared with $15.70 and $16.40 forecast earlier.
• MOH sees adjusted EPS at least $19.00, saw $21.50 to $22.50. Q2 MLR missed (90.4% vs 89% est.).
• UNH shares tumble after saying it has begun complying with formal criminal and civil requests from the Department of Justice after reviewing media reports about investigations into certain aspects of its participation in the Medicare program. UNH says independent audits by Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services confirm that its practices are among the most accurate in the industry.

• ENVX was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan while raised tgt to $12 from $9 saying high chances of success are already priced into the stock and current valuation appears rich.
• JCI was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies, moving to the sidelines, seeing limited upside due to uncertainty around management. and the regulatory landscape.
• LKQ cuts 2025 free cash flow view to $600M-$750M from $750M-$900M; cuts 2025 operating cash flow view to $875M-$1.075B from $1.075B-$1.275B; cuts 2025 EPS to $2.47-EPS $2.77 from $3.40-$3.70 prior.
• SAIA downgraded to Hold from Buy in LTL sector Q2 preview at Stifel; says sub-seasonal trends continue in q225, valuations improved despite uncertainty.

• AAL forecasts bigger Q3 EPS loss as sluggish demand hits fares (guides loss 10c-60c vs. est. 7c loss).
• CSX Q2 EPS $0.44 vs. est. $0.42; Q2 revs fell -3% y/y to $3.57B vs. est. $3.58B; Q2 total volume of 1.58M units for the quarter was flat compared to second quarter 2024 and up 4% sequentially.
• LUV board authorizes new $2.0B share repurchase program; sees Q3 outlook RASM down 2% to up 2%, Q3 CASM-x up 3.5% to 5.5% and outlook Q3 ASM about flat.
• UNP quarterly profit rose to $3.15 per share, from $2.74 per share and above consensus of $2.90.

• LHX posted better Q2 results; expects EPS to land between $10.40-$10.60 as midpoint of $10.50 is up a dime from prior guidance; Q2 new orders in the quarter were strong at $8.3 billion, 1.5 times sales.

• DOW reports a wider-than-expected Q1 EPS loss of (-$0.42) vs. est. loss (-$0.17), hurt by lower prices and weak demand for its products; said it is cutting dividend by 50% in response to prolonged industry downturn; said Q2 volume decreased 1% year over year.
• NEM, GOLD, AEM gold miners fall as gold prices slip a second day after recent surge; Gold prices extended losses as easing trade tensions increased risk sentiment and weighed on demand for safe-haven assets.
• RIO weighs the sale of its titanium business in face of weak prices and low returns, Reuters reported.

• JD is in advanced talks to buy Ceconomy in a deal that would value the target company at around $2.6 billion, the German electronics retailer said. JD is mulling a cash offer of 4.60 euros for each ordinary share, Ceconomy said. The offer would value the German group at 2.23 billion euros ($2.63 billion).
• SPOT was upgraded from Perform to Outperform at Oppenheimer with $800 tgt with shares 14% off their all-time highs, as it sees many tailwinds ahead.
• TMUS reported postpaid phone additions a 2Q record of +830K, up 53K from 2Q24 and a turnaround from last quarter; ARPA growth was up 5% as it incentivizes high-priced premium plan sales helped by increased prices for value plans; fixed wireless adds were +451K, a 50K beat.

• NOW raised its annual subscription revenue forecast and reported a strong Q2, including CC cRPO growth of 21.5% Y/Y that meaningfully exceeded guidance and modestly beat buyside expectations as well.

• MXL reported in-line Q2 EPS on better revs, but shares surged as its revenue outlook beat expectations by ~ 8% with new program ramps beginning in 2H, continuing through the next few years.
• NVDA AI Chips worth $1B smuggled to China after trump export controls, the Financial Times reported.
• STM shares fell after reporting an unexpected Q2 loss of $133M, missing the estimate for a $56.2M profit; said that without the $190M in impairment, restructuring charges and other costs, the company would have registered a quarterly profit of $57M