Early Look

Friday, July 25, 2025

U.S. futures are looking higher, trying end the week with gains after both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hit record highs on Thursday as results from Google parent Alphabet fueled optimism about other heavyweight AI stocks, but Tesla slumped after the electric vehicle maker’s results disappointed investors. Shares of other large cap tech names rallied as well with AMZN, MSFT both climbing over 1%. Overnight in tech, Intel (INTC) shares rose initially after results and cost reductions, but shares revere lower after weaker Q3 forecast, while the company cut cap-ex spending which is weighing on semi equipment this morning (AMAT, KLAC). Markets have been fueled this week by positive earnings and trade deals after the U.S.-Japan came to terms on tariffs this week, while recent signs of progress in talks with the European Union also boosted sentiment. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index dropped -370 points to 41,456, the Shanghai Index fell -12 points to 3,593, and the Hang Seng Index declined -278 points to 25,388. In Europe, the German DAX is down -153 points to 24,142, while the FTSE 100 is down -30 points to 9,108. Last night, President Donald Trump visited Fed headquarters to inspect the Fed headquarters’ renovation. Trump and Fed chief Jerome Powell, in front of reporters, disagreed over the project’s overall costs. Trump and some senators also on the tour concluded by calling for lower interest rates and repeating his -300bp call. He said that firing Powell was unnecessary and that he believed the Fed would do the right thing.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -316.38 points, or 0.70%, to 44,693.91
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 37.94 points, or 0.18%, to 21,057.96
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -30.99 points, or 1.36% to 2,252.14

• 8:30 AM ET                  Durable Goods Ex: transports M/M for June
• 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• President Trump said he spoke with Fed Chair Powell on rates and the meeting was productive, while he noted that there was no tension and he repeated several times that he believes Powell will do the right thing.

• Boyd Gaming (BYD) Q2 adj EPS $1.87 vs. est. $1.67; Q2 revs $1.0B vs. est. $976.4M; Q2 adj net income $154.2M vs. est. $137M; Q1 adj Ebitda $357.9M; said Las Vegas Locals segment achieved its strongest quarterly growth in more than two years with y/y growth in both revenue and Adjusted EBITDAR.
• Carter’s (CRI) Q2 fiscal 2025 net sales rose 4% to $585M; adjusted EPS of $0.17 missed analyst expectations of $0.39; suspends fiscal 2025 guidance due to leadership changes and tariff uncertainties; anticipates $35M net additional tariff impact in H2 fiscal 2025.
• Comfort Systems (FIX) shares rise 13%; Q2 EPS $6.53 vs est. $4.78 on revs $2.173B vs est. $1.97B, adj FCF $252.5Mm, backlog $8.12B.
• Deckers Outdoors (DECK) shares rise 12%; Q1 EPS $0.93 vs. est. $0.68; Q1 revs $964.53M vs. est. $900.9M; Q1 HOKA sales rose 19.8% to $653.1M and Q1 UGG sales rose 18.9% to $265.1M; Q1 gross margins 55.8%; sees Q2 EPS $1.50-$1.55 vs. est. $1.51 and sees Q2 revenue $1.38B-$1.42B vs. est. $1.4B.
• Gaming and Leisure Properties (GLPI) Q2 AFFO $0.96 vs. est. $0.96; Q2 revs rose 3.8% y/y to $394.9M vs. est. $397.51M and adjusted EBITDA increased 6.2%; narrows FY25 AFFO to $3.85-$3.87 from $3.84-$3.87.
• Mohawk Industries (MHK) Q2 adj EPS $2.77 vs. est. $2.61; Q2 revs $2.8B vs. est. $2.76B; board approved $500M share buyback plan; guides Q3 EPS $2.56-$2.66; said will manage impact of tariffs through supply chain enhancements, cost optimization, price adjustments.
• Scholastic (SCHL) Q4 adj EPS $0.87 vs est. $0.85, adj EBITDA $91.2Mm vs est. $85.72 on revs $508.3Mm vs est. $494.59; guides FY revs +2-4% vs est. +5.45%; sees Q1 seasonal loss approx in line with prior year.
• SkyWest (SKYW) Q2 EPS $2.91 vs. est. $2.44; Q2 revs $1B vs. est. $980.27M; Q2 2025 block hour production increased by 19% compared to Q2 2024 and 7% compared to Q1 2025.
• Ulta Beauty (ULTA) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Loop Capital
• Volkswagen (VWAGY) reported a 1.3-billion-euro ($1.5 billion) 1H hit from tariffs and cut its full-year sales and profit margin forecasts; now expects this year’s operating profit margin between 4% and 5%, compared with a previously forecast 5.5-6.5% range. Full-year sales, earlier forecast to rise by up to 5%, are expected to be level with the previous year.

• Hexcel Corp. (HXL) Q2 adj EPS $0.50 vs est. $0.47, adj op Inc $54.2Mm vs est. $56.7Mm on sales $489.9Mm vs est. $475.6Mm; backs FY sales $1.88-1.95B vs est. $1.905B and adj EPS $1.85-2.05 vs est. $1.86; says unchanged FY guide does not include tariff impact.
• Newmont Mining (NEM) Q2 adj EPS $1.43 vs. est. $1.16; said produced approximately 1.5 million attributable gold ounces and generating an all-time record quarterly free cash flow of $1.7 billion; authorizes additional $3B share repurchase program.
• Weyerhaeuser (WY) Q2 adj EPS $0.12 vs est. $0.11, adj EBITDA $336Mm vs est. $337.53Mm on net sales $1.88B vs est. $1.836B; says sees Q3 adj EPS and adj EBITDA comparable to Q2 excluding effect of changes in average sales realizations for lumber and OSB.

• Associated Banc-Corp (ASB) Q2 EPS $0.65 vs. est. $0.61; Q2 net interest margin of 3.04% from 2.97% last quarter; Q2 tangible book value was $20.84 from $20.25 at previous quarter end; Q2 common equity Tier 1 capital ratio was 10.20% vs. 10.11% in Q1.
• Bancorp Inc. (TBBK) Q2 EPS $1.27 vs est. $1.28 on NII $97.492Mm vs est. $98.04Mm.
• Columbia Bancshares (COLB) Q2 EPS $0.73 vs est. $0.66 on NII $446Mm vs est. $439.88, NIM 3.75%.
• Kinsale Capital (KNSL) Q2 EPS $5.76 vs est. $4.41 on gross premiums written $555.522Mm vs est. $542.23Mm, expense ratio 20.7%, combined ratio $75.8%.
• Schwab (SCHW) authorizes $20B stock repurchase, declares common stock dividend, and declares preferred stock dividends.
• SLM Inc. (SLM) Q2 EPS $0.32 vs est. $0.49 on NII $377Mm vs est. $373.77Mm, NIM 5.31%, ROCE 12.6%; guides GAAP EPS $3.00-3.10 vs est. $3.10.

• Edwards Lifesciences (EW) Q2 adj EPS $0.67 vs est. $0.62 on revs $1.53B vs est. $1.49B; guides Q3 revs $1.46-1.54B vs est. $1.478B and adj EPS $0.54-0.60 vs est. $0.60; sees FY revs $5.9-6.1B vs est. $5.91B and adj EPS high end of $2.40-2.50 vs est. $2.48
• Ensign Group (ENSG) Q2 adj EPS $1.59 vs est. $1.55 on adj revs $1.23B vs est. $1.22B; guides FY revs $4.99-5.02B vs est. $4.92B and adj EPS $6.34-6.46 vs est. $6.31.
• Healthpeak Properties (DOC) Q2 AFFO/shr $0.46 vs est. $0.46 on revs $694.3Mm vs est. $690.05Mm; says backs FY AFFO/shr view of $1.81-1.87 vs est. $1.85.
• Sarepta (SRPT) shares fall after the European Medicines Agency’s Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use recommended not granting a marketing authorization for Sarepta’s Elevidys for the treatment of Duchenne muscular dystrophy.
• Sarepta (SRPT) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan without a price target, saying the shares are trading on investor sentiment and headlines instead of fundamentals. Nearly every headline this week related to Elevidys has had a negative skew.

• Coursera (COUR) Q2 adj EPS $0.12 vs. est. $0.09; Q2 revs $187.1M vs. est. $180.52M; guides Q3 above consensus and raises FY25 revenue view to $738M-$746M from $720M-$730M (est. $726.72M) and sees FY25 Annual Adjusted EBITDA Margin improvement of 200 basis points to 8.0%.
• Digital Realty (DLR) Q2 FFO $1.87 vs. est. $1.74; Q2 revs $1.49B vs. est. $1.44B; Sees 2025 constant-currency core FFO $7.10-$7.20; raises 2025 revenue view to $5.925B-$6.025B from $5.825B-$5.925B; Reported backlog of $826 million of annualized GAAP base rent at the end of 2Q25.
• STMicroelectronics (STM) announced the planned acquisition of NXP Semiconductors’ (NXPI) MEMS sensors business, focused on automotive safety products as well as sensors for industrial applications.
• U.S. Cellular (USM) sees special cash dividend of $22.50-$23.75 per share. United States Cellular (USM) announced that it expects its Board of Directors to approve a special cash dividend in the aggregate range amount of $1.95B-$2.075B.
• Verisign (VRSN) Q2 EPS $2.21 vs $2.01 last year and revs $409.9M vs $387.1M last year; authorizes additional $913M share buyback; ended the second quarter of 2025 with 170.5 million .com and .net domain name registrations in the domain name base, a 0.1% decrease.