Closing Recap

Thursday, July 31, 2025

U.S. stocks opened at new record highs, as it remains all about “AI”, driving stock market gains early whether it be large cap tech (GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, META), semiconductor chips (NVDA, AMD, AVGO), power generation/nuclear (CEG, VST, PWR), data centers (VRT, SMCI), etc. that continues to drive this stock market to record highs. However, profit taking ensued this afternoon, pulling back off these big levels to end just off the lows. News last night from META, MSFT raising capex spending for AI investment, along with GOOGL earlier in the week is pushing the above-mentioned sectors. At the same time, there remains weakness in healthcare stocks, food sector, housing, solar, restaurants, transportation, consumers, and pockets of weakness in energy and materials. Yes financials, industrials (on E&C/power), Utilities (on nuclear) have been leaders, but tech/comm services remains the leader, day in and day out as the top 7 names (AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NFLX, TSLA) continue to make up the majority of stock market gains – and as long as these names keep beating, it appears tough for the overall market to show any signs of weakness. Despite all the positive news flow this week (trade deals, META/MSFT/GOOGL results lifting tech, economic data), a lot of focus remains on the nonfarm payrolls report Friday morning (recall Fed Chair Powell said unemployment rate is now labor market’s key indicator) and still AAPL, AMZN tonight. Another successful IPO took place today with software company Figma (FIG) more than doubling in its debut open after the 36.94M share IPO opened at $85 after pricing at $33, above the high end of (30-$32 range) and surged above $100 – is the IPO market fully back? The dollar has surged on trade deals, crypto staying strong (Bitcoin around $120K) and oil prices have rebounded in recent days (down on day). Lots of positives on this final day of the trading month, but stocks slipped in the end on profit taking and as hopes for a Fed rate cut in September get pushed out following the FOMC yesterday.

In global trade/tariff news today: The U.S. signed another trade deal overnight, this time with South Korea, joining Japan, EU and many other countries in recent days, while tariffs were increased for Brazil and India. Trump noted South Korea will give to the United States $350B Dollars for Investments owned and controlled by the United States. Additionally, South Korea will purchase $100B Dollars of LNG, or other Energy products and, further, South Korea has agreed to invest a large sum of money for their investment purposes. Also today, Trump noted that Mexico will continue to pay a 25% Fentanyl Tariff, 25% Tariff on Cars, and 50% Tariff on Steel, Aluminum, and Copper as deal pushed out 90-days extension. Additionally, Mexico has agreed to immediately terminate its Non-Tariff Trade Barriers.

Stats on day: Recap through more than halfway point of earnings season: : of the 290 S&P 500 companies reported thus far vs 315 LY (fiscal qtr ending May-Jul, per Reuters): 83% beat vs 82% LY; avg beat 14% vs 11% LY, avg miss -29% vs -26% LY; avg yr/yr earnings growth 47% vs 8% LY and median yr/yr earnings growth 9% vs 9% LY. In weekly sentiment data: 1) NAAIM Exposure Index reading dropped to 76.85, falling from last week’s 81.07 – off recent highest reading of 99.30 on 7/2 (and down every week since that high) – recent trough from 4-17 of 35.16 – Last Quarter Average (Q2) of 73.28; 2) The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was +7.3 vs +2.8 last week: Bulls rise to 40.3% from 36.8%, Neutrals fall to 26.7% from 29.2%, and Bears fall to 33% from 34%.

• Weekly Jobless Claims climbed to 218,000 Jul 26 week (consensus 224,000) from 217,000 prior week (previous 217,000); the 4-week moving average fell to 221,000 Jul 26 week from 224,500 prior week (previous 224,500); the insured unemployment Rate unchanged at 1.3% Jul 19 week from 1.3% prior week; continued claims unchanged at 1.946M vs. est. 1.955M.
• June personal saving rate 4.5% vs May 4.5%; June personal income +0.3% (consensus +0.2%) vs May -0.4% and June Personal Spending +0.3% (consensus +0.4%) vs May unchanged (prev -0.1%); June real consumer spending +0.1% vs May -0.2%.
• June overall PCE price index +0.3%, in-line with estimates and above May +0.2%, while headline June y/y PCE price index +2.6% (consensus +2.5%) vs May +2.4%. June core PCE price index +0.3% m/m vs. May +0.2% and US core PCE on y/y basis rose +2.8% (consensus +2.7%) and vs May +2.8% (prev +2.7%).
• U.S. Q2 employment cost index +0.9% (consensus +0.8%) vs Q1 +0.9% (prev +0.9%); U.S. Q2 wages/salaries +1.0% vs Q1 +0.8% (prev +0.8%); U.S. Q2 benefit costs +0.7% vs Q1 +1.2% (prev +1.2%).

• Gold futures fall -$4.20 or 0.12% to settle at $3,348.60 an ounce
• Oil prices rose with WTI crude slipping -$0.74 or 1.06% to settle at $69.26 per barrel (for the month, oil prices rose about 6.37%) and Brent crude dropped -$0.71 or 0.97% to settle at $72.53 per barrel.
• Natural gas prices slipped over -10% for July ending at $3.01 mln btus
• Treasury yields slipped ahead of jobs data tomorrow but ended down only slightly with the 10-yr -1.7bps on day to 4.36%. For the month the 10-yr yield rose 13.3bps, the 30-yr yield rose 11.1 bps to settle at 4.886% and the shorter term 2-yr yield jumped 23 bps in July to finish at 3.952%.
• Bitcoin prices rose about 1%, just under $118,000.

• Ford Motor (F) Q2 adj EPS $0.37 vs est. $0.33 on revs $50.2B vs est. $43.206B; guides FY adj op Inc $6.5-7.5B vs est. $6.77B, sees FY net tariff related headwind of $3B gross adverse adj op Inc hit, partially offset by $1B recovery actions
• RACE earnings climbed in the second quarter as demand for its SF90 XX and 12Cilindri models and customized supercars helped offset additional tariff expenses.
• TSLA is in talks with California regulators about expanding its ridesharing service, with limited plans vs Musk’s Robotaxis.
• Auto suppliers APTV, BWA shares active following earnings results.

• SHAK shares slumped as Q2 revenue rises 12.6% yr/yr, beating analyst expectations, and adjusted EPS for Q2 beats consensus, reflecting strong operational performance, but did not provide any guidance weighing on sentiment.
• THS and UTZ shares declined on earnings results, weighing on food sector.

• In Cruise lines: NCLH maintains annual adjusted earnings per share target of $2.05 (vs. est. $2.02) saying demand has rebounded across all three of our brands, with bookings now ahead of historical levels in recent months and continued onboard spending (however Q2 results were mixed/missed).
• In Leisure products/RVs: CWH posted an adjusted EBITDA beat on better revenue via strong volume; and, encouragingly, management noted July-to-date SS new units have increased +HSD% y/y with SS used units up +high-teens% y/y. Further, CWH noted its guideposts remained largely unchanged, with new units now expected to grow more than HSD.

• In Transports: CHRW a massive winner following earnings results; sector looks to rebound after recent weakness in airlines post results (AAL, DAL) and package delivery on UPS results and pulled guidance; CARS was downgraded to Neutral at JP Morgan following earnings results the day prior.
• In Utilities: on earnings, CMS beat Wall Street estimates for Q2 profit, driven by increased power demand, while revenue rose 14.4% to $1.84B y/y though total quarterly operating expenses rose to $1.52B from $1.32B a year ago. AWK mixed Q2 as EPS missed/revs beat and raised FY EPS $5.70-5.75 vs est. $5.73 and prior $5.65-5.7. EXC Q2 EPS beat $0.39 vs. $0.37 helped by higher electric and gas distribution rates in its PECO unit; though earnings at its Commonwealth Edison unit (ComEd), the largest electric utility in Illinois, fell 15.6% to $228M; reaffirmed guidance. PCG Q2 EPS misses by a penny, hurt by an increase in operating and maintenance costs, while saying hurt by an increase in operating and maintenance costs.
• Nuclear stocks: shares of power producers gain after upbeat forecasts from MSFT and META (and GOOGL last week) and ahead of AMZN capex: CEG hits record high, along with OKLO highs and gains in VRT, SMR, NNE, VST others. Last night now expects capital expenditures to be between $66B and $72B, compared with its prior projection of $64B and $72B; MSFT said full-year CAPEX by $10B to $85B to support surging demand for its cloud services. GOOGL last week said it increased investment in capital expenditures in 2025 to approximately $85B, versus $75B prior.

• In Exchanges/Operators: ICE posted mixed Q2 results as EPS beat but revs $2.5B missed the $2.53B estimate; said 2025 exchanges recurring REV growth is now expected to be 4% to 5%; TW as downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs following a long period of outperformance as now sees signs of organic growth deceleration amid stagnating market share, competitive dynamics in Credit, maturity within Portfolio Trading, and cyclically tough industry volume comps.

• In Payments: EEFT announced it will acquire CCRD in a stock-for-stock merger transaction valued at approximately $248M, or $30 per share of CoreCard common stock. Klarna, the buy now, pay later lender, which is repositioning itself as a digital bank, is preparing to formally revive its planned $15B New York stock market flotation in the autumn, after postponing its IPO in April amid tariff-induced market turmoil, as per reports. MA another mover on earnings in credit cards.
• Financial Info Services: DFIN Q2 net sales fall 10% on lower capital markets volumes; Adjusted EPS for Q2 beats analyst expectation; says encouraged by the level of capital markets transactional activity so far in Q3.

• EQIX results beat expectations and guidance that was raised primarily due to FX. EQIX recurring revenue growth improved in 2Q and is expected to continue to improve in 2H, which should set up EQIX favorably for 2026.
• EXR reported a $0.012Q25 Core FFO miss vs. consensus and management reaffirmed its FY25 Core FFO guidance midpoint of $8.15 by tightening both the high and low end of the range by $0.05/sh. Despite the modest miss in the quarter, underlying trends are more mixed, in our view. First, SSREV growth decelerated 30 bps sequentially and was flat y/y, though an increase in operating expense growth drove SSNOI growth lower by 3.1% y/y.
• KIM raised its forecasts for annual funds from operations and earnings, driven by steady leasing demand for the real estate investment trust’s grocery-anchored shopping centers.
• KRG reported an in-line 2Q result and management increased its FY25 NAREIT/Core FFO guidance ranges by nearly 0.5% at the midpoint to account for a slightly stronger SSNOI growth forecast (+25 bps at the midpoint); Q2 SSNOI growth of 3.3%, which improved 20 bps vs. last quarter; 2) elevated new leasing volume totaling 343ksf.
• PSA reported a 2Q25 Core FFO beat that came in $0.03 ahead of consensus and KBCM, and management tweaked higher its FY25 FFO guidance range by 0.3% at the midpoint by lifting the low end of the range $0.10 to a new range of $16.45 $17.00/sh. The guidance revision appears driven by a slight decrease in the outlook for operating expense growth.
• VICI reported 2Q25 AFFO of $0.60, which beat consensus by $0.01, and management raised its FY25 AFFO guidance by $13M, or $0.015 at midpoint (+0.6%).
• VTR reported a 2Q25 NFFO beat, and management bumped 2025 NFFO guidance by ~1% at the midpoint. SHOP SSNOI growth increased 13%, or 15% after excluding a property tax refund received last year. Most importantly, occupancy increased 40 bps vs. 1Q25, while RevPOR growth held stable (on a leap year adjusted basis).

• ABBV raises FY EPS to $11.88-$12.08, from previous expectations of $11.67-$11.87 after Q2 EPS and sales beat; Skyrizi recorded Q2 sales of $4.42B, beating estimates of $4B while Rinvoq sales of $2.03B topped estimates of $1.97B.
• APLS generated $178M in Q2 2025 revenues, including $171M in U.S. net product sales; SYFOVRE® (pegcetacoplan injection) injection demand grew 6% quarter-over-quarter, with U.S. net product revenue of $151M.
• BIIB shares rise; Q2 EPS $5.47 topped the $3.86 estimate on revs $2.6B vs. est. $2.32B; lifts 2025 adjusted profit per share between $15.50 and $16.00, compared to prior expectations of $14.50 to $15.50 (est. $14.68).
• BMY posts Q2 revenue and profit above analysts’ expectations; Q2 revs rise 1% to $12.3B vs. ests. $11.4B due to the loss of patent protection on some of its products; results buoyed by better-than-expected sales from cancer therapies Opdivo and Revlimid as well as blood thinner Eliquis; also raises full-year revenue forecast.
• LLY slides after a long-anticipated study, its Mounjaro failed to outperform its predecessor Trulicity in reducing major cardiovascular events in Type 2 diabetes patients. It did, however, meet the goal of non-inferiority, solidifying its reputation as a strong, dual-acting GLP-1/GIP drug that effectively lowers blood sugar and weight as per STAT News.
• MRNA to slash 10% of workforce as biotech cuts costs, covid shot sales slow; noted the company expects to have fewer than 5,000 workers by the end of the year.

• ALHC jumps following a significant MBR beat (86.7% vs 88.6% est.) and raises FY EBITDA guide to $69M-$83M vs $52M est.
• ALNY shares jumped after Q2 beat and raised guidance for the year.
• BAX shares slump in MedTech as Q2 EPS/sales miss estimates and guides Q3 profit below consensus.
• CI shares jump; Q2 adjusted EPS $7.20 tops consensus $7.15; Q2 revs rose 11% y/y to $67.18B vs. est. $62.61B; FY25 adjusted EPS view at least $29.60, vs. consensus $29.69; Growth in Cigna’s Evernorth Health Services division drove revenue
• CVS shares rise; Q2 adj EPS $1.81 vs. est. $1.46; Q2 revs $98.92B vs. est. $94.5B; outlook FY adj eps $6.30 to $6.40 vs est. $6.12; Q2 medical benefit ratio increased to 89.9% vs estimate 91.16%.
• DXCM Q2 adj EPS $0.48 vs est. $0.44, adj op Inc $221.8Mm vs est. $206.9Mm on revs $1.157B vs est. $1.124B; guides FY revs $4.6-4.625B vs est. $4.616B.
• EXAS and HUM expand colorectal cancer screening partnership with Cologuard plus™ test.
• GH posted a broad-based Q225 sales beat of ~9.6%, coming in at ~$232M vs $212M Street estimates. On Shield, Guardant completed ~16k tests in the quarter, above the high end of Mizuho’s ~11-14k estimate for the quarter, and revenue of $14.8M vs $5.7M in Q125; raised its Shield volume guidance for 2025; negative for Q2 was the lack of data from Shield V2.
• MDXG reported revenue of $98.6M (Consensus $90.4M), representing YoY growth of ~13%, driven by the company’s wound portfolio, which increased ~12% YoY to $64.5M, while Surgical increased ~15% YoY to $34.1M. MDXG exited the quarter with ~$100.0M of net cash up from ~$88M from the Q125 operating period and $50M from the prior-year period.

• In Chemicals: FMC Q2 top/bottom line beat while backs FY25 adjusted EPS view $3.26-$3.70 (est. $3.43) and sees FY25 revenue $4.08B-$4.28B, vs. est. $4.2B – shares tumbled on FCF guide; Keybanc noted Chemical Market Analytics (CMA) released its monthly chlor-alkali report, as the caustic soda index fell $15/ton m/m, ahead of CMA’s forecast of a $5/ton decline, a disappointment (shares of OLN, WLK greatest exposure); TROX shares fall as weak coatings market/fierce competitive pressures (from Western/Chinese producers) resulted in a significant drop in TROX’s volumes, which along with high cost inventory and fixed cost absorption drove EBITDA down 43% Y/Y and well below expectations.
• In Forest, Paper and Container sector: IP shares fell after misses Q2 profit estimates on higher input costs with adj EPS $0.20 below the $0.41 estimate saying margins were affected due to higher costs and muted demand in Europe (did post Q2 sales beat) – shares of SW, GEF, PKG moved in sympathy early.
• In Rare Earths: Top White House officials told a group of rare earths firms last week that they are pursuing a pandemic-era approach to boost U.S. critical minerals production and curb China’s market dominance by guaranteeing a minimum price for their products, five sources familiar with the plan told Reuters. The previously unreported July 24 meeting was led by Peter Navarro, President Donald Trump’s trade advisor, and David Copley, a National Security Council official tasked with supply chain strategy. It included ten rare earths companies plus tech giants Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Corning (GLW), which all rely on consistent supply of critical minerals to make electronics, the sources said.

• MSFT the other big winner on earnings in software as shares rise; Q4 EPS $3.65 vs. est. 43.37; Q4 revs $76.44B vs. est. $73.89B; Q4 intelligent cloud revs $29.88B, vs. est. $29.1B; Q4 Azure & other cloud rev ex-fx +39%, vs. est. +34.2%; ed full-year capex by $10 billion to $85 billion to support surging demand for its cloud services.
• In Internet: EBAY shares surge after reported 2Q results with GMV and PF EPS above Street estimates by 4% and 6%, respectively; 2Q GMV growth came in at +4% y/y ex-FX (vs. -1-2% guide), driven by strength in focus categories including cards and collectibles; sees Q3 ex-FX GMV growth to 3-5% y/y and signaled that the company is tracking towards the higher end of the FY25E guide (LSD-%). Additionally, the company raised the FY25E PF EPS growth outlook to 10-12% y/y.
• In Telco: ERIC has strengthened its partnership with Softbank Corp. through a new commercial agreement covering 4G and 5G network products and solutions. VOD downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman Sachs on reduced confidence in the company’s organic growth and returns outlook with limited upside from mobile consolidation. SATS EchoStar is being pushed by the FCC to sell some of its wireless spectrum to settle a dispute over whether it is utilizing the airwaves quickly enough, Bloomberg reported. In Cable, CMCSA a much better print than rival CHTR last week, as Q2 revenue of $30.31B topped the $29.8B estimate on better EPS $1.25 (vs. est. $1.18) saying its May debut of their "Epic Universe" theme park in Central Florida key in driving quarterly results; also lost 226,000 broadband customers in Q2, smaller than the expected 255,000 loss (CHTR posted wider losses last week); SIRI loses fewer subscribers in second quarter on podcast strength.

• CGNX shares rise; reported adj. 2Q25 EPS of $0.25, which beat consensus of $0.24 and our estimate of $0.23. Revenues of $249M increased 4.1% y/y (up ~3% on a constant currency basis) and were above consensus of $246M and in line with our estimate of $249M. Revenue was modestly above the midpoint of the Company’s prior guidance.
• CRWV snaps 6-day losing streak, rising after being upgraded to Buy at Citigroup and removing its 90-day downside catalyst watch with shares down -45% from the peak and -32% since the M&A announcement (vs. AI peers +8%), while adding that existing multi-year contracts with MSFT, OpenAI and others will drive revenue growth (the co also closes $2.6 bln secured debt financing, strengthening its market position as AI cloud leader).
• Figma (FIG) opened at $85 after its 36.94M share IPO priced at $33.00 – traded above $107 late day – a near $80B valuation (recall last year ADBE had agreed to buy it for $20B but regulators nixed the deal).
• PI shares rise on results; impressive Q2 report and provided better-than-expected guidance for Q3. Revenues declined 4% y/o/y, above Street expectations of an 8.5% decline.
• PTC results were better than feared as PTC noted modest improvements in deal trends which allowed the company to lift the low end of ARR growth guidance for FY25 to 8-9%.
• RBLX shares rise after results; raising FY25 bookings to $5.87-$5.97B well above prior view of $5.29-$5.36B; forecast Q3 bookings between $1.59B-$1.64B vs. estimate $1.35B which followed Q2 bookings beat ($1.44B vs. $1.24B); Q2 average daily active users grew 41% to 111.8 million, while hours engaged jumped 58% to 27.4 billion.
• TENB topped Q2 expectations and raised CY25 guidance for both CCB and Revenue; also, management cited U.S. Public Sector performance which was better-than-expected, with two competitive wins for 7-figure SLED contracts; and increased confidence in large U.S. Federal renewals during 2HCY25.

• FORM shares slide on guidance; Q2 non-GAAP EPS $0.27 misses the $0.30 estimate; Q2 revs $195.8M vs. est. $190.17M; sees Q3 EPS $0.25 plus/minus 4c vs. est. $0.30 and revs $200M, plus/minus $5M vs. est. $199.46M.
• LRCX weighs on equipment names; delivered EPS 10% above cons on revenue that was 3% above. F1Q26 EPS guide was 20% above on revenue 12% above. LRCX highlighted record Foundry revenue at both leading and trailing edge, and strong memory upgrades as customers transition to higher layer count. LRCX increased its 2025 WFE expectation to $105B from $100B, primarily on an uptick in domestic China spending, and it expects WFE in 2H25 to be flat with 1H25.
• QCOM shares fall; posted solid FQ3 results that beat expectations and guided FQ4 in line with expectations; Q3 results reflect stronger QCT auto and IoT revs, which offset weaker smartphone revs that QCOM attributed to weaker mix in the quarter; looking into FQ4, QCT handsets are expected to grow 5% q/q despite the loss of iPhone 17 market share.
• WDC reported JunQ strong at $2.61B, while guiding the SepQ to $2.70B/$1.54 (above est. $2.55B/$1.42) with 41.5% GM (cons. 40.3%) as pricing remains stable with strong demand; guides Q1 revs $2.7B vs est. $2.539B and EPS $1.54 vs est. $1.38.