Early Look

Friday, August 1, 2025

After closing out July with strong gains, U.S. futures dropped overnight along with declines in Europe and Asia after President Trump officially hit virtually every US trading partner with sweeping tariff hikes, pushing ahead with his plan. His executive order formally authorized a hike in levies on Canada to 35%, to go into effect on Friday. Most of the other “reciprocal” rates range from 15% to 40% (though the baseline remains 10%) and will be implemented in seven days. The US sets 20% Taiwan tariff; 39% Switzerland; Canada 35%; US to impose 19% tariffs on Thailand, Cambodia; Economies sorted into three groups based on trade relationships; Higher rates set for partners that didn’t strike deals, had high surpluses. The news weighed on overseas markets as in Asia, The Nikkei Index declined -270 points to 40,799, the Shanghai Index dropped -13 points to 3,559, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -265 points to 24,507. In Europe, the German DAX is tumbling -419 points to 23,646, while the FTSE 100 is down -50 points to 9,082. Oil headed for its biggest weekly increase since mid-June after President Donald Trump ramped up pressure on Russia, as the market braced for the fallout from US tariffs that take effect on Friday.

U.S. stocks finished July higher with the Nasdaq rising 3.7%, the S&P 500 gaining 2.17%, the Dow little changed on the month and the Russell 2000 rising 1.68% in July. Amazon (AMZN) shares drop over -7% overnight following earnings while Apple (AAPL) shares edged higher after results. The main U.S. indexes ended lower on Thursday following the latest swath of economic data and corporate earnings. PCE data showed inflation picked up in June, with new tariffs pushing prices higher, stoking concerns that price pressures could intensify in the coming months, while weekly initial jobless claims signaled the labor market remained on stable footing. Strength came from Meta and Microsoft on Thursday signaling Big Tech’s hefty artificial intelligence bets were paying off. While stocks opened at record highs, major averages slipped on the day to end lower. Stock markets can rebound or worsen later this morning when the July jobs report is released at 8:30 AM. The CBOE Volatility index (VIX), or fear index jumps 13% to 18.90 this morning as futures pullback.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid -330.30 points, or 0.74%, to 44,130.98
• The Nasdaq Composite slipped -7.23 points, or 0.03%, to 21,122.45
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -20.75 points, or 0.93% to 2,211.65

• 8:30 AM ET                  Private Payrolls for July…est. +100 (prior +74K)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Manufacturing Payrolls for July…est. (-3K) vs. prior (-7K)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Unemployment Rate for July…est. 4.2% (prior 4.1%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Average Hourly Earnings M/M for July…est. +0.3% (prior +0.2%)
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, July-final…prior 49.5
• 10:00 AM ET                Construction Spending M/M for June…est. 0.0% (prior -0.3%)
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI for July…est. 49.5
• 10:00 AM ET                University of Michigan Confidence Sentiment, July-F…est. 62.0
• 10:00 AM ET                University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations, July-F
• 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• Beazer Homes (BZH) Q2 EPS loss (-$0.01) on revs $545.4M vs. est. $554.4M; Homebuilding gross margin was 13.5%, down 380 basis points y/y; Net new orders were 861, down 19.5% on a 30.0% decrease in orders per community per month to 1.7; Backlog dollar value was $742.5 million, down 29.0% on a 30.6% decrease in backlog units to 1,352.
• Boot Barn (BOOT) Q1 EPS $1.74 vs. est. $1.55; Q1 revs $504.1M vs. est. $495.17M; Sees Q2 revenue $487M-$495M, consensus $481.86M; sees Q2 Same store sales growth of 4.5% to 6.5%; sees FY26 EPS $5.80-$6.70, consensus $6.27; sees FY26 revenue $2.1B-$2.18B, consensus $2.15B. Sees FY26 Same store sales declines of (0.5)% to growth of 3.5%.
• Clorox Inc. (CLX) Q4 adj EPS $2.87 tops consensus $2.21; Q4 revs $2.0B, vs. consensus $1.93B; sees FY26 adjusted EPS $5.95-$6.30, below consensus $6.45 and said net sales are expected to be down 6% to 10% y/y; expects less than a point of negative impact from the divestiture of its VMS business and forex; FY organic sales are expected to decrease 5% to 9%
• Floor & D�cor (FND) Q2 EPS $0.58 vs est. $0.56 on sales $1.214B vs est. $1.209B; guides FY sales $4.6-4.75B vs est. $4.72B with +20 new warehouse stores.
• Magna International (MGA) raised annual sales forecast and topped second-quarter estimates; expects 2025 sales to be between $40.4 billion and $42.0 billion, compared with its prior forecast of $40.0 billion and $41.6 billion. Total quarterly sales fell about 3% to $10.63 billion, while the estimate was $10.23 billion.
• Tesla (TSLA) car sales in Sweden, Denmark and France fell in July for the seventh straight month. The brand’s sales were down 86% year-on-year in July to 163 cars in Sweden, 52% to 336 cars in Denmark and 27% to 1,307 cars in France, official industry data showed. New Tesla sales in Spain rise 27% in July, other EV sales more than double.
• Topgolf Callaway brands (MODG) announces resignation of Artie Starrs, CEO of TopGolf.
• Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), MGM Resorts (MGM): Macau’s gaming bureau reported that July gross revenue from games of fortune in the region was up 19.0% year-over-year to 22.125B patacas.

• Exxon Mobil (XOM) beat Wall Street estimate for Q2 profit as higher oil and gas production helped the top U.S. oil producer overcome lower crude prices; Q2 adj EPS of $1.64 topped the $1.56 estimate; Oil and gas production was the highest for any second quarter since the company was formed by the merger of Exxon and Mobil more than 25 years ago.
• Bloom Energy (BE) Q2 adj EPS $0.10 vs est. $0.01 on revs $401.242Mm vs est. $376.5Mm, gr mgn 26.7%.
• Edison International (EIX) Q2 adj EPS $0.97 vs est. $0.91 on revs $4.54B vs est. $4.20B; guides FY adj EPS $5.94-6.35 vs est. $6.06, says continued confidence in delivering 5-7% core EPS growth from 2025 to 2028 ($6.74-7.14).
• Enovix (ENVX) shares fall; Q2 EPS loss (-$0.13) vs. est. loss (-$0.15); Q2 revs $7.46M vs. est. $6.34M.
• First Solar (FSLR) Q2 EPS $3.18 tops consensus $2.62; Q2 revenue $1.10B vs. est. $1.04B; Q2 2.1 GW booked in July 2025; expected sales backlog of 64.0 GW, extending through 2030; narrows FY25 EPS view to $13.50-$16.50 from $12.50-$17.50; boosts FY25 revenue view to $4.9B-$5.7B from $4.5B-$5.5B and narrows higher Volumes Sold estimate.

• Reddit Inc. (RDDT) Q2 EPS $0.45 vs est. $0.19, adj EBITDA $167Mm vs est. $129.1Mm on revs $500Mm vs est. $426Mm; guides Q3 revs $535-545Mm vs est. $472.96Mm and adj EBITDA $185-195Mm vs est. $160.39Mm.
• LPL Financial (LPLA) Q2 adj EPS $4.51 vs est. $4.23 on revs $3.84B vs est. $3.731B, organic net new assets +5% annualized growth.
• Rocket (RKT) Q2 adj EPS $0.04 vs est. $0.03 on revs $909Mm vs est. $1.28B; guides Q3 adj revs $1.6-1.75B vs est. $1.511B.
• Strategy (MSTR) Q2 revenue $114.48M vs. est. $113M; Q2 EPS $32.60; has 628,791 bitcoin holdings at total cost of $46.07 bln, or $73,277 per bitcoin ytd; raises FY25 BTC yield target to 30% from 25%.
• tZERO, a pioneer in digitally native capital markets infrastructure, will launch the tZERO Chain, a next generation blockchain purpose-built for the compliant issuance, trading and settlement of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs). The launch will also introduce the $TZERO utility token, which will serve as the core transaction and incentive layer for the network.

• Bio-Rad Labs (BIO) Q2 adj EPS $2.61 vs est. $1.73 on revs $651.6Mm vs est. $615.2Mm, gr mgn 53%; guides FY revs +0-1% vs est. -1.74%.
• Illumina (ILMN) Q2 adj EPS $1.19 vs. est. $1.01; Q2 revs $1.06B vs. est. $1.05B; for fiscal year 2025, sees constant currency revenue decline in range of -2.5% to -0.5%.
• iRhythm Technologies (IRTC) Q2 adj EPS $0.32 vs est. ($0.48) on revs $186.7Mm vs est. $173.9Mm, gr mgn 71.2%; guides FY revs $720-730Mm vs est. $695.74Mm and adj EBITDA mgn 8.0-8.5%.
• Mettled Toledo (MTD) Q2 adj EPS $10.09 vs. est. $9.60; Q2 revs $983.22M vs. est. $958.17M; guides Q3 profit above estimates and raises FY25 EPS view to $42.10-$42.60, from prior $41.25-$42.00 (consensus $41.60).
• Pfizer (PFE) and its German partner BioNTech (BNTX) on Friday lost their bid to overturn a ruling that their COVID-19 vaccine infringed one of Moderna’s (MRNA) patents at London’s Court of Appeal.
• ResMed (RMD) Q4 EPS $2.55 vs. est. $2.48; Q4 revs $1.3B vs. est. $1.33B; said delivered 10% headline revenue growth, 230 basis points in non-GAAP gross margin expansion, and 23% non-GAAP EPS growth.
• Stryker (SYK) Q2 adj EPS $3.13 vs. consensus $3.07 and revs $6B vs. est. $5.93B; raising full year 2025 guidance and now expect organic net sales growth of 9.5% to 10.0% and adjusted net earnings per diluted share to be in the range of $13.40 to $13.6; updated sales guidance includes a modestly favorable pricing impact.

• Huntsman (HUN) Q2 adjusted EPS loss (-$0.20) vs. est. loss (-$0.12); Q2 revs $1.46B vs. est. $1.49B; Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $74 million compared to $131 million in the prior year period; said posted decreases in revs y/y for Polyurethanes segment, Performance Products segment, and Advanced Materials segment.
• Ingersoll Rand (IR) Q2 adj EPS $0.80, in-line with consensus and revs $1.89B vs. est. $1.85B; raises FY25 EPS view to $3.34-$3.46 from $3.28-$3.40 (est. $3.34) and boosts FY25 revenue growth view to 4%-6% from 3%-5%.
• MasTec (MTZ) Q2 EPS $1.49 vs. est. $1.40; Q2 revs rose 20% y/y to $3.55B vs. est. $3.4B; 18-month backlog as of June 30, 2025, of $16.5 billion increased 23% year-over-year and 4% versus the prior quarter; significant second quarter new awards in Clean Energy and Infrastructure led to a record backlog level.
• V2x (VVX) awarded $4.3B contract to support U.S. air force T-6 combs program.
• WillScot Holdings (WSC) Q2 adj EPS $0.27 vs est. $0.35, adj EBITDA $248.913Mm on revs $589.083Mm vs est. $587.5Mm; guides FY revs $2.3-2.35B vs est. $2.363B.

• AppFolio (APPF) Q2 adj EPS $1.38 vs est. $1.28 on revs $235.575Mm vs est. $231.3Mm; guides FY revs $935-945Mm vs est. $931.81Mm, adj op mgn 24.5-26.5%.
• Cloudflare (NET) Q2 adj EPS $0.21 vs est. $0.18 on revs $512.316Mm vs est. $501.3Mm; guides FY revs $2.114-2.116B vs est. $2.096B with adj EPS $0.85-0.86 vs est. $0.80.
• DXC Technology (DXC) Q1 adjusted EPS $0.68 vs. est. $0.62; Q1 revs $3.16B vs. est. $3.09B; sees Q2 adjusted EPS 65c-75c, consensus 80c and sees Q2 revenue $3.15B-$3.18B, vs. consensus $3.1B.
• Five9 Inc. (FIVN) Q2 adj EPS $0.76 vs est. $0.65 on revs $283.269Mm vs est. $275.2Mm; guides Q3 revs $283-286Mm vs est. $285.66Mm and adj EPS $0.72-0.74 vs est. $0.71, sees FY revs $1.1435-1.1495B vs est. $1.142B and adj EPS $2.86-2.90 vs est. $2.76.
• Innodata (INOD) Q2 EPS $0.20 vs est. $0.14 on revs $58.4Mm vs est. $56.35Mm; says increasing FY revs guide to 45% or more organic growth vs est. +41.45%.
• KLA-Tencor (KLAC) Q4 EPS $9.38 vs. est. $8.55; Q4 revs $3.18B vs. est. $3.08B; sees Q1 EPS $7.76-$9.30 vs. consensus $8.15 and sees Q1 revenue $3.0B-$3.30B vs. consensus $3.05B; said delivered strong across-the-board results for the June quarter including generating record quarterly free cash flow.
• Lumen Technologies (LUMN) Q2 adj EPS ($0.03) vs est. ($0.26), adj EBITDA $725Mm vs est. $834.9Mm on revs $3.09B vs est. $3.11B; says expects to ready high end of FY adj EBITDA range of $3.2-3.4B vs est. $3.331B.
• Monolithic Power (MPWR) Q2 adj EPS $4.21 vs est. $4.11, adj op Inc $231.2Mm vs est. $222.5Mm on revs $664.6Mm vs est. $650.8Mm, adj gr mgn 55.5%; guides Q3 sales $710-730Mm vs est. $679.02Mm, adj gr mgn 55.2-55.8%, adj op exp $143-147Mm.
• Roku Inc. (ROKU) Q2 revs $1.1B topped the $1.07B estimate while guides Q3 revs $1.2B vs. est. $1.17B; announced $400M share repurchase plan; guides FY revs $4.65B vs. est. $4.55B