Closing Recap

Tuesday, July 22, 2025

U.S. equity futures slipped slightly overnight then crossed to green in pre-market trading on the back of less onerous China trade comments and more supportive Powell comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent. Gains held into the open but quickly reversed to modest declines in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. With only 89 S&P 500 companies having reported results thus far, earnings have not been a major catalyst for the broader markets. Results have been comparable to last year with 84% beating expectations versus 83% a year ago and an average year/year EPS growth rate of 13% versus 15% last year. Despite the early fade in large-cap names, mid-morning breadth favored advancers by about 3:2 as small caps outperformed with IWM (+0.27%) versus SPY (-0.28%) and QQQ (-0.76%). Health Care, Real Estate and Materials were early outperformers among S&P sector ETFs, while Communications, Industrials and Technology led the underperformers with nine sectors gaining versus only two declining. Today’s Fear & Greed Index, meanwhile, continued to register Greed at 71/100 compared to last week’s 73 (Greed) but up from last month’s 54 (Neutral).

In noteworthy data today, $PM’s early 7% decline would mark the stock’s second largest single-day earnings-driven drop it its history (largest was 15% in April 2018), per @bespokeinvest. Also, per @bespokeinvest, $GOOGL’s nine-day gain streak needs only one more up day to tie the longest in its history. On wages, @charliebilello notes wages have now outpaced inflation year/year for 26 consecutive months. This follows a 25 consecutive month string of negative real wage growth. On insider activity, @KobeissiLetter noted only 11.1% of companies with insider activity have seen more buying than selling by officers and directors. This marks the lowest on record, having not fallen below 15% over the past decade. Lastly, on S&P 500 trends, @RyanDetrick noted the index hasn’t closed down 1% in 24 trading days, the longest streak since 38 days in September/October 2024. The Index also has closed above its 20dma for 60 consecutive days, the longest streak since 1998. This has only happened four other times in the past 50 years and has resulted in gains of 20-26% a year later.

Heading into the final hour of trading and following some see-saw action intraday, stocks remained range-bound. Breadth held in favor of advancers by just over 2:1 on small-cap outperformance with IWM (+1%) versus SPY (+0.1%) and QQQ (-0.44%). Health Care (+1.9%), Real Estate (+1.6%) and Materials (+1.25%) remained outperformers among S&P sector ETFs, while Industrials (+0.3%), Communications (+0.3%) and Technology (-0.85%) paced the underperformers with only Technology in the red. Growth and value were split on the day, mirroring the Technology underperformance. The Russell 1000 Growth slipped 0.48% compared to gains in its Value counterpart at +0.82%. Looking ahead, we will see an uptick in the pace of earnings releases with the mega-caps ahead as well so prepare for rising volatility on the reports.

• September WTI crude futures slipped overnight and never recovered before settling down $1.47/bbl, or -2.15%, at $66.98. Ongoing trade tension and uncertainty continued to play a role in demand concerns, especially with the US/EU tariff dispute. While the August 1st trade deadline remains in play, EU representatives have indicated the chances of a deal are fading and retaliation is a possibility. Brent similarly slipped $0.62/bbl, or -0.9%, to settle at $68.59.
• U.S. Treasury yields slipped on Tuesday as President Donald Trump continued to lash out at Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates ahead of the central bank’s policy meeting next week. Benchmark 10-year yields declined by about three basis points to 4.338%, and two-year yields were down two bps to 3.833%. Note the Treasury Department will sell 20-year bonds worth $13 billion on Wednesday and 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities worth $21 billion on Thursday.

• In Tobacco: PM shares fell after the tobacco company reported Q2 revs $10.1B vs. est. $10.33B and said quarterly cigarette shipment volumes down (-1.5%) compared to a (+1.1%) rise in the prior quarter; did raise FY adjusted profit forecast to between $7.43-$7.56 per share, from prior view $7.36-$7.49
• In Retail: LULU was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan with $224 tgt and lowers its Q2 US revenue growth to +1.2% Y/Y representing a 50bps step down from +1.7% in Q1 (& relative to May cited as tracking similar to 1Q’s +1.7% growth rate) equating to a +1.0% Q2 2-yr stack or -260bps sequential; ONON downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James; SHOP downgraded to Hold from Buy at Loop Capital citing valuation.

• In Autos: GM reported Q2 adjusted EPS that fell from a year earlier as Q2 core profit fell 32% to $3B as the automaker continued to confront challenging tariff policies, which it said sapped $1.1B from the results; revs fell nearly 2% to about $47.12B vs. est. $46.28B; 2025 full-year guidance unchanged. Auto dealer GPC shares fell after cutting their 2025 EPS view to $7.50-$8.00 from prior $7.75-$8.25 and cut its annual revenue growth to 1%-3% from its prior expectation of 2%-4% citing tariff uncertainty. In EV’s, all LCID airs gain access to 23,500+ TSLA superchargers; 2026 lucid air lineup continues range and efficiency leadership.
• In Casino & Gaming: MGM was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Seaport Global noting Las Vegas has been showing signs of slowdown, and Seaport estimates Q2 softness with -3.5% y/y revenue and -5% y/y EBITDAR declines with 35% margin, as lower-end and international business faces downturn.

• In Refiners: DINO was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight in refiners at Piper, a reflection of more balanced risk/reward and a shift in preference towards the Gulf Coast in 2H25. For the sector, Piper said the combination of rich valuations and the expected seasonality has led to a negative shift in refining sentiment of late…but refining still remains likely the best house on a bad block (energy). VLO was downgraded to Hol from Buy at TD Cowen citing valuation following the recent rally in the shares.
• In Utilities/Nuclear: OKLO and VRT announced a collaboration agreement focused on the Co-development of advanced power and thermal management solutions tailored specifically for hyperscale and colocation data centers, powered by steam and electricity from Oklo’s advanced nuclear power plants.
• In Coal stocks: shares of BTU, HCC, METC among movers higher after the Chinese government warned that it may shutter mines guilty of producing above permitted levels, reining in overcapacity within the industry. The National Energy Administration is carrying out monthlong inspections in eight provinces and regions, including the biggest coal hubs of Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang, as part of a crackdown on overmining that it says has distorted the market https://tinyurl.com/mjhbz2e6

• PNC announced a strategic partnership with COIN aimed at expanding access to trusted, secure, and innovative digital asset solutions to PNC’s banking clients and institutional investors. PNC will also provide select banking services to Coinbase, reflecting both companies’ commitment to a more resilient digital financial system.
• SNV shares jumped midday after Bloomberg reported the bank is weighing options including a potential merger after drawing interest, people familiar with the matter said. The bank is working with a financial adviser and has recently held merger talks with at least one rival. https://tinyurl.com/443txnt3
• ZION was upgraded to Hold at Jefferies ($60 tgt) following a strong Q2 and a more constructive outlook on key growth drivers including loans, NII, and fees. Core EPS of $1.59 beat our ($1.23) and consensus ($1.31) estimates, and core PPNR of $303M beat est. of $291M while NIM saw solid expansion to 3.17%.
• In China Brokers: Citigroup upgraded TIGR to buy from Neutral and maintain Neutral on FUTU noting the recent rollout of the Stablecoin Bill in HK and PBOC’s positive comments on the role of stablecoin in international trade have spurred investor interest in crypto-related exposure. Citi sees the crypto brokerage biz driving decent 5.4%/3.0% revenue upside for Futu/TIGR in 2027E.

• CRCL was downgraded to Sell from Neutral (tgt to $130 from $205) at Compass Point after U.S. stablecoin legislation passed last week. Compass said it stills believes USDC can be an integral part of the financial system; but is more cautious towards CRCL’s long-term economics than its $53B valuation implies.
• MSTR announced plans to sell 5M share of Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock; Strategy intends to use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes, including the acquisition of bitcoin and for working capital.
• In Financial Services: Credit bureau EFX shares fell after results despite Q2 beating and boosting its annual forecasts for full-year reported revenue by $35M and adjusted EPS by $0.03 per share for forex; the company did guide Q3 results below estimates EPS $1.87-$1/97 vs. est. $1.99).
• In Consumer Lending (SLM): The Trump administration pauses student loan forgiveness, per Washington post. The Education Department suspended an income-driven program that allows borrowers to get their balance erased after 20 to 25 years of payments.

• MEDP shares surge after earnings beat as EBITDA/EPS beat consensus ests by +11% and +5%, respectively. Quarterly book-to-bill came in at 1.03x, above consensus estimates of 0.98x; bookings improved in the quarter, up +13% y/y; raised revenue and adjusted EPS guidance by +13% and +12%, respectively.
• REPL shares tumbled after saying the FDA issued a complete response letter (CRL), and declined to approve its experimental skin cancer drug, called RP1, for patients with advanced melanoma. The letter said the clinical trial to test the drug "was not considered to be an adequate and well-controlled clinical investigation that provides substantial evidence of effectiveness."
• SRPT announced a pause of all US Elevidys shipments, in-line with the FDA’s request, reversing the company’s initial statement that it will continue shipments to ambulatory patients.

• IQV shares jump on results; the provider of healthcare technology and research services tightened the range for its annual earnings and revenue forecasts following Q2 beat $2.81/$4.02B vs. est. $2.77/$3.96B.
• OSCR said it anticipates a net loss of $228M for Q2 and a loss from operations of $230M; updated year guidance as expecting revenue of $12B to $12.2B (from $11.2B to $11.3B), MLR of 86% to 87% (from 80.7% to 81.7%), SG&A 17.1% to 17.6%, and adj EBITDA loss of ~$120M.
• THC Q2 adj EBITDA beat by 14%, raises FY EBITDA guide and increases buyback authorization in hospital sector; FY25 adjusted EBITDA guide $4.40-4.54B vs prior guidance $3.975-4.175B. FY25 Revenue $20.95-21.25B vs prior guidance $20.60-21.00B.

• Waste Sector: Heading into Q2 earnings, Truist reiterate its Buy ratings on all Waste names saying they believe the sector is attractive here due to: (1) cheaper relative valuations (group shares under-performed the S&P 500 by 18% since April); (2) core pricing/yield remains elevated; and (3) strong 1Qs give hope for FY guidance raises. Truist expects some incremental headwinds from recycling pricing for Q2. Truist slightly lowers Q2/FY estimates for WCN and GFL.
• The tariff rate for imports from Indonesia will remain at the 19% rate announced last week, but the Southeast Asia nation has now agreed to sell critical minerals and purchase Boeing planes, farm products, and energy from the U.S., President Donald Trump announced. The 19% rate is lower than the 32% rate for Indonesia’s products that Trump originally announced on April 2. Additionally, Indonesia will impose no tariffs on U.S. goods.

• BAH was upgraded from Market Perform to Outperform at William Blair, the defense tech services specialist that has taken a few proverbial punches over the past six months. With valuations across defense tech soaring, as believe this is an opportunity for investors to grab shares of a franchise name at a discount.
• BKSY downgraded to Hold from Buy at Clear Street but raise PT to $24 from $20 following a 112% year-to-date appreciation in its share price (vs. Nasdaq +8.8%).
• LMT Q2 sales $18.200B vs. est. $18.573B, Q2 order backlog $166.530B; Reaffirming 2025 guidance for sales and free cash flow; Recorded pre-tax losses on programs of $1.6B and other charges of $169M in qtr.
• NOC shares rise on results; Q2 sales $10.35B vs est. $10.07B while narrows FY 2025 sales view to $42.05B to $42.25B vs prior outlook $42B to $42.5B; sees 2025 EPS $25-$25.40 vs prior outlook $24.95 to $25.35 (est. $25.16); Outlook FY 2025 free cash flow $3.05B to $3.35B vs prior outlook $2.85B to $3.25B.
• RTX shares fall on guidance; now sees 2025 organic sales growth of 6%-7% vs prior outlook 4%-6%, but cuts 2025 view to adj eps $5.80-adj eps $5.95 vs prior outlook $6-$6.15; now sees 2025 adjusted sales $84.75B-$85.5B vs prior outlook $83B-$84B; still sees 2025 free cash flow $7B-$7.5B.
• SpaceX warns investors Elon Musk could return to US politics.
• The Trump administration is expanding its search for partners to build the Golden Dome missile defense system, courting Amazon.com’s (AMZN) Project Kuiper and big defense contractors as tensions with Elon Musk threaten SpaceX’s dominance in the program. Officials have reached out to new entrants like rocket companies Stoke Space and Rocket Lab (RKLB) are gaining traction – Reuters.

• In Chemicals: SHW reported Q2 EPS of $3.38, missing the $3.81 consensus as the sales of its consumer brands unit decreased due to soft DIY demand in North America and cuts its 2025 adj EPS view to between $11.20-$11.50 from the previous forecast of between $11.65-$12.05/share.
• In Paper & Packaging: CCK posted another beat and raise quarter as 2Q EPS beat by 15%; 2025 EPS Guide +3%; raised 2025 EPS midpoint to $7.30 from $6.90 (range of $7.10–$7.50 vs prior $6.70-$7.10) and better Q3 guidance as well led by strength in global beverage shipments and operational efficiencies. AVY forecasted Q3 EPS $2.24-$2.40, below estimates of $2.41 as uncertainty fluctuating tariff policy mounts, after reported Q2 EPS flat y/y and revs fell nearly 1% to $2.22 billion from a year earlier.

• Communication & Networking: CALX reported Q2 revenues of $242M increased 22% Y/Y and 10% Q/Q, beating consensus by $18M or 8% and margins exceeded estimates by 60bps/380bps, and EPS at $0.33 was 50% higher than modeled while Q3 revenue, margins and earnings guidance beat consensus. NOK cut its 2025 comparable operating profit to range from 1.6B-21.B euros instead of prior 1.9-2.4B estimate.
• In Software: Bloomberg reported ORCL could secure a cloud software deal w/ Skydance worth ~$100M/yr once Skydance closes its deal w/ Paramount https://tinyurl.com/5xxdtp55 ; Separately, a WSJ article reporting SoftBank and OpenAI’s $500bn AI Project is struggling to get off the ground.
• In Semiconductors: NXPI shares slipped as reported JunQ rev/GM in line at $2.93B/56.5% (cons. $2.90B/56.3%) and guided SepQ top line to $3.15B, up 8% q/q, just ahead of consensus of $3.07B; reported Auto/Industrial/Comms were up 3%/7%/2% q/q; oval chip stocks saw some selling pressure after a massive run higher since mid-April on AI hype.
• In Media: President Trump said that he anticipates receiving advertising and public service ad commitments worth $20 million from Skydance Media, the company in the process of acquiring CBS parent Paramount Global. The additional compensation would come on top of the $16 million the current owner agreed to pay earlier this month to settle Trump’s lawsuit alleging election interference by the network’s news magazine "60 Minutes."