Daily Commentary: July 16, 2025

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Bank Earnings In Line

Posted by Pete Stolcers on July 16
www.oneoption.com

This week’s earnings reports feature big banks and the reaction has been balanced.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – Earnings season has started and JPM, WFC, C, BAC, MS and GS have reported. There has not been much movement either way and that is typical. Bank stock fundamentals don’t change much. Consumer credit is deteriorating slightly, but the conditions are stable.

ASML (Dutch) reported earnings and the stock is down 10%. They said that they expect revenue growth of 15% this year, but that the future is murky due to tariffs. Revenue projections were slightly below estimates. This statement by the company is puzzling since chips are exempt from tariffs.

NFLX will report earnings tomorrow after the close. It is a unique company and it will have an impact on the S&P 500 since it is a component, but there will not be much of a tangent impact on other stocks. The subscriber growth has been steady and this stock has almost become a flight to safety play. People will fork out monthly subscriptions regardless of the economy. It is cheap entertainment and they have produced content people like.

The CPI came out in line with expectations and the market did not like the .3% increase. Stocks sold off on the news yesterday, but they are going to bounce back this morning. PPI came in at 0% and a .2% increase was expected.

The Beige Book will be released this afternoon.

This is the calm before the storm. The news will be heavy during the next two weeks (earnings, economic and monetary) and the outcome will determine the direction in August and September. I like keeping my trade duration very short term and I want to gauge the market reaction.

Foreign markets were unchanged overnight and there is not much of an influence there. The S&P 500 jumped 10 points on the PPI report and the market open will be relatively flat.

The gap up yesterday was prompted by semis after chip sales to China resumed. That move attracted profit takers who were more focused on the uptick in CPI and the gap reversed. Once the momentum was established, the market continued to slide. The price action on the way down was not particularly steady. There were two meaningful bounces and that suggests that buyers are still engaged. Given the drop in PPI today I am expecting a gradual recovery today.

Our ideal set up is a probe for support that quickly runs its course in the first hour of trading. That dip will allow us to identify relative strength and it will provide us with a nice entry point for day trades. It will also allow us to gauge how aggressive buyers are. A brief and shallow dip will tell us that they want to buy after a down day. An instant move higher would be more difficult to trade. I hate chasing stocks when the intraday ranges have been compressed. If we see nice stacked green candles in the first 30 minutes, only take small starter positions and add on strength/confirmation. Tech has been relatively strong and I would focus there.

Support is at $621.50 and resistance is at $625.

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