Early Look

Tuesday, July 22, 2025

After slipping off highs late yesterday for major averages to end mixed (S&P and Nasdaq closed at new highs while the Dow and Russell 2000 ended lower), stock futures are looking slightly lower into a busy day of earnings results. GM shares slip after results, noting the impact of global tariffs on profit, while Dow component Cocoa Cola (KO) earnings are due this morning as well. Yesterday, the communication services sector (XLC) hit a record closing high, leading gains on the along with gains in Tech (XLK) and Utilities (XLU) which also notched record closing highs. Investors also keeping a close eye for signs of progress in trade talks as the clock ticks down to President Trump’s Aug. 1 deadline to strike a deal or face higher tariffs. The Fed is also in its blackout period, with no commentary ahead of next week’s FOMC policy meeting. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -44 points to 39,774, the Shanghai Index rose 22 points to 3,581, and the Hang Seng Index gained 135 points to 25,130. In Europe, the German DAX is down over -230 points to 24,075, while the FTSE 100 is up a few points to 9,015. Later Tuesday, Jerome Powell’s speech at a regulatory conference is in high focus as the Federal Reserve chair comes under pressure from Trump to step down. Japan’s chief trade negotiator met with US Commerce Sec Lutnick on Monday evening, while Reuters reported the prospect of an interim trade deal between the US and India before the August 1 deadline have dimmed.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -19.12 points, or 0.04%, to 44,323.07
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 78.52 points, or 0.38%, to 20,974.18
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -8.88 points, or 0.40% to 2,231.13

• 8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 10:00 AM ET                Richmond Fed Composite Index for July
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: BKR CALM CATY CB CNI COF CSGP ENPH EQT EWBC HAFC ISRG KARO KREF MANH MTDR NBHC NPB PEGA PFSI PMT RNST RRC SAP TRMK TXN USNA VBTX VICR

• D.R. Horton (DHI) Q3 EPS $3.36 vs. est. $2.90; Q3 revs $9.2B vs. est. $8.8B; 3Q net sales order value fell 3% to $8.4B; 3Q net sales orders 23,071 homes; 3Q-end sales order backlog of homes under contract Down 16% to 14,075; narrows FY25 revenue view to $33.7B-$34.2B from $33.3B-$34.8B (est. $34.04B).
• Lululemon (LULU) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan and cut tgt to $224 from $303 saying field work shows that while consumers are responding favorably to Lululemon’s new product and fabric innovation, this is being more than offset by customers not responding as well to the updated core-seasonal colors.
• On Holding (ONON) downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James.
• Shopify (SHOP) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Loop Capital citing valuation.

• Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) and CSX Corp. (CSX) have created a new rail transportation routing option for customers across the southern U.S. with the Southeast Mexico Express, the new east-west Class 1 corridor that connects shippers in Mexico, Texas and U.S. southeast.
• Crown Holdings (CCK) Q2 adj EPS $2.15 vs. est. $1.87 and sales $3.149B vs. est. $3.107B; guides Q3 adj EPS $1.95-$2.05 vs. consensus of $1.93; increased its FY25 expectations for adjusted EPS and adjusted free cash flow; said continue to closely monitor the potential impacts of tariffs on consumers and industrial activity.
• Halliburton (HAL) Q2 EPS $0.55 vs. rest. $0.56; Q2 revs $5.500B vs. est. $5.413B; North America revs in Q2 of 2025 was $2.3B and International revs $3.3B; expect oilfield services market will be softer than previously expected over short to medium term.
• Lockheed Martin (LMT) has secured a significant $999M contract to provide production support for the Joint Air to Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM) and the Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM).
• Northrop Grumman (NOC) Q2 sales $10.35B vs est. $10.07B; Q2 EPS $8.15, inclusive of $1.04 benefit from training services divestiture; narrows FY 2025 sales view to $42.05B to $42.25B vs prior outlook $42B to $42.5B; sees 2025 EPS $25-$25.40 vs prior outlook $24.95 to $25.35 (est. $25.16); Outlook FY 2025 free cash flow $3.05B to $3.35B vs prior outlook $2.85B to $3.25B; FY25 organic sales about +3% vs EST +2%.
• Steel Dynamics (STLD) Q2 EPS $2.01 vs est. $2.10, adj EBITDA $533Mm vs est. $607.61Mm on revs $4.565B vs es.t $4.756B; says “we believe demand for lower carbon emission, domestically produced steel and aluminum products will competitively advantage our businesses now and in the future. As
• The Trump administration is expanding its search for partners to build the Golden Dome missile defense system, courting Amazon.com’s (AMZN) Project Kuiper and big defense contractors as tensions with Elon Musk threaten SpaceX’s dominance in the program. Officials have reached out to new entrants like rocket companies Stoke Space and Rocket Lab (RKLB) are gaining traction – Reuters.

• AGNC Investment (AGNC) Q2 EPS ($0.17) on NII $162Mm, 2.01% annualized net interest spread.
• Alexandria Real Estate (ARE) Q2 adj FFO $2.33 vs. consensus $2.29 and revs $762.0M vs. est. $748.02M; Q2 Same property net operating income changes of (5.4%) and 2.0% (cash basis) for 2Q25 over 2Q24 and (4.3%) and 3.4% (cash basis) for 1H25 over 1H24; cuts 2025 FFO view.
• Circle Internet Group (CRCL) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral (tgt to $130 from $205) at Compass Point after U.S. stablecoin legislation passed last week. Compass said it stills believe USDC can be an integral part of the financial system; but is more cautious towards CRCL’s long-term economics than its $53B valuation implies.
• Equity Lifestyle (ELS) Q2 FFO/SHR $0.69 vs est. $0.69 on revs $376.9Mm vs est. $382.05Mm; sees Q3 FFO/SHR $0.72-0.78 vs est. $0.74 and FY FFO/SHR $3.01-3.11 vs est. $3.07.
• RLI Corp (RLI) Q2 adj EPS $0.84 vs est. $0.78 on revs $499.8Mm vs est. $465.39Mm, gross premiums written flat vs est. +2.9%.
• Strategy (MSTR) announces proposed initial public offering (IPO) of 5M shares of STRC stock; said proceeds from IPO to be used for general corporate purposes, including bitcoin acquisition.
• TrustCo Bank (TRST) Q2 EPS $0.79 on NII $41.746Mm, NIM 2.71%, credit loss provision $650k.
• Wintrust Financial (WTFC) Q2 EPS $2.78 vs. est. $2.59; Q2 revs $670.78M vs. est. $660M; said expect loan growth in mid-to-high single digits in second half of year; Q2 book value per share $95.43; Net interest income increased to $546.7M from $526.5M q/q; Total loans increased by $2.3 billion, or 19% annualized.
• WR Berkley (WRB) Q2 EPS $1.00 vs. est. $1.03; Q2 Return on equity of 19.1% and operating return on equity of 20.0%; Q2 record net premiums written grew to $3.4 billion; book value per share grew 6.8% in the quarter, before dividends; combined ratio was 91.6%, including current accident year catastrophe losses of $99.2M.
• Zions Bancorp (ZION) Q2 EPS $1.63 vs est. $1.31 on NII $648Mm vs est. $644Mm, NIM 3.17% CET1 capital ratio 11.0%; says incrementally more optimistic about 2H with expectations for continued growth.

• Medpace (MEDP) shares surge over 40% overnight; Q2 EPS $3.10 vs est. $2.96 on revs $603.311Mm vs est. $538.8Mm; raises FY revs outlook to $2.42-2.52B vs est. $2.185B and raises year EPS to $13.76-14.53 (from prior $12.26-$13.04) and vs est. $12.73.
• Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) said Monday evening it will pause all shipments of Elevidys, its gene therapy for Duchenne muscular dystrophy, following a request by the FDA. It’s a surprising reversal by the company, which had initially rejected the agency’s request, issued Friday – STAT News.

• Calix Inc. (CALX) Q2 EPS $0.33 vs. est. $0.21; Q2 revs $241.9M vs. est. $223.8M; Q2 remaining performance obligations up 30% to $347M; guides Q3 EPS $0.31-$0.37 vs. est. $0.23 and revs $243M-$249M vs. est. $227.02M; sees 2025 gross margin improvement above target range.
• NXP Semiconductor (NXPI) Q2 adj EPS $2.72 vs est. $2.67, adj EBIT $935Mm vs est. $921.78Mm, adj EBIT mgn 32% on revs $2.926B vs est. $2.903B; sees Q3 revs $3.05-3.25B vs est. $3.07B and adj EPS 2.89-3.30 vs est. $3.05