Closing Recap

Monday, August 04, 2025

Stocks finished near the highs in a rather lackluster trading day, with U.S. futures rebounding overnight following Friday’s decline and held solid gains all day heading into another very busy week of earnings. Today’s gains were slow, steady, amid a deliberate melt up all day, paring most of Friday’s payroll/tariff/AMZN earnings induced losses, as investors took a positive approach to lower interest rates. Following Friday’s weaker July jobs report and notable downward revisions for the prior 2 months, Fed fund futures are now pointing to higher odds of a rate cut looking ahead in September, but still notable it’s a seven-week stretch until next FOMC meeting which could be seen as an overhang, particularly amid seasonal headwinds. There were no notable stories on the day to move the needle outside of one economic data point, no tariff news outside of likely increased tariffs for India as investors pushed higher all day. Oil prices fell on OPEC+ headlines this weekend, gold prices rebounded while the dollar was mixed. One of the quieter days in recent weeks, but activity and volatility should perk up in coming days. Speaking of volatility, the VIX index tumbled over 13% to 17.40 after closing above 20 on Friday. All three major indexes posted their worst weekly declines in months on Friday, ending a run of positive market moves…but the dip was bought again today. Earnings season continues to roll on with a busy week of corporate releases. Over 100 S&P 500 companies are set to report.

• December gold rises $26.60 (new front month contract – was Aug contract late last week) or 0.77% to settle at $3,426.40 an ounce. The U.S. dollar was mixed slipping vs. the Japanese yen but edging higher vs. the euro. After tumbling last week, Treasury yields were little changed on the day amid signs of a cooling economic outlook.

• TSLA committee approves award of 96M shares of restricted stock to CEO Musk, which likely removes an overhang and should solidify Musk as CEO for Tesla for a while.
• NIO upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Macquarie and raises price target to $5.5 from $3.9 as confidence grows in NIO’s product strategy, especially the new Onvo L90 SUV. Wall Street holds a mixed view with a Hold consensus, but shares underperformed all day.

• In Consumer Products/Staples: KMB was upgraded to Neutral at JP Morgan and raised tgt to $138 following its Q225 results and 1×1 virtual meeting with the IR team due to: better than anticipated top line with +MSD volume-led Q2 OSG with confidence of volume/mix led growth in the back half ahead of underlying market and overall strong execution, better brand communication and recent innovation launches.
• In Restaurants: BJRI was upgraded to Buy at Benchmark after $44 tgt after reporting Q2 operating results that continued to show material margin progress from management’s recent strategic efforts as well as continued sturdy SSS growth, which generated upside to both AEPS and AEBITDA estimates.

• In Building Products: MLM shares entered into a definitive agreement with Quikrete Holdings for the exchange of certain assets – issued guidance for year above; Raises 2025 EBITDA guidance to $2.30B at midpoint
• In Tolls/Appliances: ENR shares surged on results; Q3 adj EPS $0.78 vs. est. $0.62; Q3 revs $725.3M vs. est. $693.07M; raises FY25 adjusted EPS view to $3.55-$3.65 from $3.30-$3.50 (est. $3.37) and boosts FY25 revenue view to $630M-$640M from $610M-$630M as now expect Net sales growth in the range of 1% to 3

• In Gaming: Prediction Market’s Platform Kalshi received its first legal setback in its ability to offer Sports Prediction markets under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) when a Maryland federal judge denied its motion for a preliminary injunction against Maryland Gaming Officials. The Judge ruled that the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) does not preempt MD’s gaming and gambling laws, as applied to designated contract markets offering sports event contracts

• In Energy movers: SHEL was downgraded from Buy to Hold at HSBC saying Shell’s valuation premium versus key European Supermajor peer Total after the shares’ outperformance is no longer justified. SHEL trades on a 10%/15% premium versus TTE on ’26e EV/DACF and P/CF, respectively, while its ’26e’ distribution yield of c11% is below TTE’s of 13%. BP announces oil, gas discovery at Bumerangue prospect in offshore Brazil. BP drilled exploration well 1-BP-13-SPS at the Bumerangue block, located in the Santos Basin, 404 kilometers from Rio de Janeiro, in a water depth of 2,372 meters. SD files $500M mixed securities shelf; KGS will be added the S&P 600 index.

• In Insurance: Loews Corp (L) reported a rise in Q2 profit on Monday, helped by higher investment income and strong performance in its insurance unit; Net income attributable to Loews rose to $391 million, or $1.87 per share, in the three months ended June 30, compared with $369 million, or $1.67 per share, a year earlier. BRK reported a modest 4% drop in Q2 operating earnings citing pressure from U.S. tariffs. The conglomerate posted operating profits of $11.16B, down from the same period last year. While insurance underwriting weakened, other sectors saw y/y profit gains.
• In Mortgages: The daily average mortgage rate dropped to 6.57% on August 4, the lowest level in 10 months, according to a new report from Redfin, the real estate brokerage powered by Rocket. That means a homebuyer on a $3,000 monthly budget has gained roughly $20,000 in purchasing power since May, when the daily average rate hit a recent peak of 7.08%. A buyer on that budget can afford a $458,750 home with today’s mortgage rate, compared to the $439,000 home they could have bought with May’s peak. To look at affordability another way, the monthly mortgage payment on the median-priced U.S. home, which goes for roughly $447,000, is $2,862 with today’s average rate. In mid-May, when rates were sitting above 7%, the monthly payment would have been $2,983, over $100 more.

• ALNY was upgraded from Perform to Outperform at Oppenheimer with $490 tgt after Amvuttra’s ~$150M in first full-quarter ATTR-CM sales outpaced OPCO’s and consensus $10/17M estimates by a sizable margin as ALNY secured payer agreements much faster than anticipated; and co raises full-year TTR franchise sales guidance by ~$560M.
• AXSM reported Q2 revenue of $150M above ests of $138.8M as sales of its depression drug Auvelity were $119.6M, up 84% from $65M y/y on smaller than expected EPS loss of (-$0.97) vs. (-$1.67) y/y.
• BCRX Q2 revenue of $163.4M topped $109.3M y/y as sales of Orladeyo for the quarter rose 45% to $156.8M and maintained its 2025 revenue forecast for its skin disease drug, Orladeyo, to be between $580M-$600M; said plans to retire all remaining term debt after its European business sale closes in early October.
• BNTX Q2 revenue above expectations (€260.8M vs €150.9M est.) and reaffirms FY rev guide as well as R&D expenses.
• MNMD resumed at Outperform and $25 tgt at Oppenheimer based on high conviction for lead asset MM120 to revolutionize neuropsychiatry with its potential to drive durable remission.
• REPL shares tumble at STAT News reported FDA’s top cancer drug regulator played key role in rejection of Replimune therapy, officials say. The top regulator of cancer drugs at the Food and Drug Administration interceded during the late stages of a contentious review of a skin cancer therapy from Replimune Group — actions that contributed to the treatment’s last-minute rejection despite support from others inside the agency, STAT has learned.
• XOMA announces two deals as enters into agreement to acquire LVTX for between $1.16 and $1.24 per share in cash, plus a contingent value right (acquisition includes CVR for 75% of net proceeds) and enters into a definitive agreement to acquire HLVX for $1.95 in cash per share plus a contingent value right.

• IDXX raises 2025 sales forecast to between $4.21B-$4.28B from prior view $4.10B-$4.21B vs. ests $4.15B following better Q2 EPS and sales that topped consensus.
• WAT Q2 EPS was largely in line with estimates ($2.95 vs $2.94 est.), revenue slightly above expectations while margins lighter. Mgmt raises low end of FY25 EPS guide ($12.95 to $13.05 ex-items vs prior guidance $12.75-$13.05). Q2 revenue $771.3M vs $748.

• JOBY announced it will acquire urban air mobility passenger business from BLDE for $125M. Blade’s Medical division, which was not included in the transaction and will remain a separate public company, is to partner with Joby on medical transportation. The acquisition includes all of Blade’s passenger business, including operations in the U.S. and Europe.
• VSAT was upgraded to Outperform at William Blair citing a plethora of catalysts that improve the company’s stock prospects over the next year and following a tour of the company’s Carlsbad headquarters that provided a deep dive into ViaSat’s defense tech business.

• In Rare Earth: TMC and Tonga announce updated sponsorship agreement for Tonga offshore mining Ltd/Tonga to receive benefits from seafloor mineral development.

• In Internet/Media: SPOT said it would increase the monthly price of its premium individual subscription in select markets from September; the subscription price will rise to 11.99 euros ($13.86) per month from 10.99 euros in markets including South Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Europe, Latin America and the Asia-Pacific region.
• In Semis: ON shares fall after results/guidance as Q2 EPS was in-line on better revs while midpoint of Q3 guidance was slightly below consensus estimates; another auto chip player disappointing this quarter (follows TXN, STM recently as well).