Daily Commentary: August 26, 2025

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Will Friday’s Breakout Hold?

Posted by Pete Stolcers on August 26
www.oneoption.com

The market rallied to a new all-time high Friday and it has been giving back gains.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – The long green candle from Friday will serve as a landmark for us. If most of those gains hold this week, it will be a sign that buyers are supporting the move. If the open from last Friday is breached it will be a sign of profit taking.

The news cycle is fairly light this week. Durable Goods orders fell 2.8% and that was better than feared (-3.8%). Nvidia will post earnings Wednesday after the close. I am expecting good results and the options market is pricing in a 6% move. This will be important for the tech sector.

Overseas markets were weak. In particular the French CAG was down 1.4% on concerns of deficit spending. Credit is always something we need to keep an eye on. Global debt levels are stratospheric and the US has to roll over almost $9T worth of debt each year. If other countries are struggling it will impact the demand for our bonds. Global credit markets are intertwined.

The market was not able to advance yesterday and it never came close to challenging the high from Friday. Late in the day we saw a gradual drift lower and this morning the market is down. The volume has not been heavy so I am not overly concerned.

I believe that the downside will be tested this morning. I know we have been buying dips on these pullbacks, but I would be very cautious doing that this morning. If the $637.50 (open from Friday) fails, the long green candle from Friday will be erased. That would mean that the move was all Fed related “fluff” and that we could see a market pullback. That candle is important and today’s price action will be very telling. If the market probes for support and it stages a nice tall bounce, I would be less concerned. If we start leaking oil all day, I would favor the short side. Watch VWAP. If we stay below it all day, that would be a sign of selling pressure.

Support and resistance is Friday’s range.

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