Closing Recap

Friday, July 11, 2025

U.S. stocks finished lower on the day, pushing the S&P and Dow Jones Industrials down on the week but remain not far off all-time highs on a week dominated by trade and tariff talk. The big macro story of the day was announced overnight as President Trump on Truth Social posted a letter to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, telling him that Canadian goods imported to the US would face a 35% tariff starting in August (up from the 25% level announced prior. Trump also floated 15% to 20% blanket tariffs on most trading partners, higher than the 10% level currently in effect. That news followed increased tariffs levels for over 20 global trading partners of the U.S. this week including for Japan, Canada, South Korea, Malaysia and others, mostly in-line with the “Liberation Day” levels, but all set to begin on August 1^st if no deals can be made. For the week, S&P 500 -0.31%, Nasdaq -0.08%, Dow -1.02%.

In stocks news, energy was the leader in the S&P while materials and healthcare lagged along with financials ahead of bank earnings next week; drone makers (AVAV, ONDS, UAVS, KTOS, RCAT) rallied after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth eliminates regulations that restricted U.S. drone manufacturing and reveals a significant increase in domestically produced drones for the military; crypto stocks bounced as Bitcoin hit a new record high above $118,000; FinTech names XYZ, PYPL, AFRM, UPST, SOFI, MA, Visa shares fell late day after a media report saying JPM has told financial-technology companies that it will start charging fees amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars for access to their customers’ bank account information; in the food space, KHC and PFGC shares both jumped following media reports discussing M&A (more below).

In the lone piece of economic data, the U.S. gross customs duties revenue grew to a record $27.2 billion in June as collections from President Donald Trump’s tariffs gained steam, combining with calendar shifts in receipts and outlays to produce a $27 billion federal budget surplus for the month, the U.S. Treasury said. The tariff receipts, which have increased steadily over the past three months, helped push total June budget receipts up 13%, or $60 billion, to $526 billion, a record for the month. June outlays fell 7%, or $38 billion, to $499 billion, the Treasury said.

In Fed News: the Fed’s Austan Goolsbee says tariff re-escalation would complicate decisions around cuts: “The more we keep adding things to the mix that make it hard to figure out, “Are prices going to be rising or not?” The more it’s just throwing more dirt back in the air.” Also, FHFA Director Pulte tweeted this afternoon, “Statement from Chairman of the Board of Fannie Mae on Reports that Jerome Powell Is Considering Resigning. Washington, D.C. – “I‘m encouraged by reports that Jerome Powell is considering resigning. I think this will be the right decision for America, and the economy will boom.”

• Oil prices reversed to end higher as WTI crude gained $1.88 or 2.82% to settle at $68.45 per barrel, while Brent crude gained $1.72 or 2.51% to settle at $70.36 per barrel.
• The U.S. dollar edged higher helped by changes in the global trade landscape, as U.S. President Donald Trump announced more import tariffs overnight, ranging from 35% on Canada to plans for blanket levies of 15% or 20% on most trading partners.
• The Canadian dollar weakened against the buck; the euro slipped 0.1% to $1.1692, heading for a weekly decline of about 1% after Trump said the European Union could receive a letter on tariff rates by Friday, throwing into question the progress of Brussels’ trade talks with Washington.
• Still, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) is down more than 9% so far this year, on worries that data could soon reflect more widely the damage U.S. policies have had on the world’s largest economy.
• Bitcoin advanced 3.5% and scaled yet another record high of $118,832, while ethereum topped $3,000 before paring gains in a strong week of returns for crypto.
• Treasury yields ended the week at their highest levels, as the 10-year yield jumped over 7.7 bps to 4.427% (up 8.4bps on the week) while the 2-year gained 4.6bps to 3.913%.

• In Retail: LEVI shares rallied on earnings after Q2 adj EPS $0.22 topped the $0.13 consensus on sales $1.45B vs. est. $1.37B; raises FY25 adjusted EPS view to $1.25-$1.30 from $1.20-$1.25 and boosts its FY25 revenue growth view to 1%-2% from (2%)-(1%); lowers its full-year gross margin expansion; GOOS was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays based on balanced risk/reward, operational improvement drivers of margin, clean inventory and relatively insulated tariff exposure with Canadian manufacturing versus Asia. AMZN price tgt was raised to $300 at Morgan Stanley and raise ’26/’27 EPS by 9%/6% for lower tariffs.

• In Theme Parks: Barclays Flowered FUN Q2 attendance estimates due to poor weather/visitation; said ticket pricing mixed (tailwind for FUN, headwind for PRKS); while big picture, weather is well-known and BARC thinks fully priced in, skewing risk to the upside on the print for beaten-down FUN.
• In Autos: Nissan Motor (NSANY) is in discussions to supply cars to Honda Motor (HMC) in the United States, weighing the possibility of using its underutilized U.S. plant, Nikkei reported on Friday without citing sources. In Auto suppliers, VC was upgraded to Buy at Goldman Sachs and raised tgt to $120 from $83 to better reflect the company’s ability to outgrow auto production driven by its digital cockpit products.
• In Movie Theatres: Wedbush upgraded AMC to Outperform from Neutral saying it is poised to benefit from a more consistent release slate over the next several quarters, is positioned to gain market share in 2025 and 2026 and repaid or postponed all debt that was due in 2026, relieving near-term uncertainty. The firm also upgraded CNK to Outperform citing a more consistent release slate over the next several quarters, approaching its convertible debt repayment date next month, reducing its debt by nearly 20% with minimal dilution and staying ahead of competitors with theater investments.

• In Utilities: LEU was initiated with Buy and $220 Target Price at Stifel saying with its long-time ties to the U.S. Government and as the only publicly traded nuclear enrichment company, Centrus is uniquely positioned to play a critical role rebuilding the supply chain. TLN price tgt was raised from $250 to $315 at Oppenheimer and saying an upsized Susquehanna/AWS PPA, the opportunity to sign a data center deal at Montour, and the potential for M&A, give them confidence TLN shares can trade higher. Separately, M&A activity in PJM remains robust (E.G., NRG/LS Power), and TLN could participate, as a way to expand generation capacity.

• APAM preliminary assets under management as of June 30, 2025, totaled $175.5 billion. Artisan Funds and Artisan Global Funds accounted for $85.6 billion of total firm AUM, while separate accounts and other AUM accounted for $89.9 billion.
• IVZ preliminary month-end assets under management (AUM) of $2,001.4B, an increase of 3.0% versus previous month-end. The firm delivered net long-term inflows of $8.3B in the month. Non-management fee earning net outflows were $1.5B and money market net outflows were $10.6B.
• LAZ preliminary assets under management as of June 30, 2025, totaled approximately $248.4 billion. The month’s AUM included market appreciation of $5.4 billion, net inflows of $4.6 billion, and FX appreciation of $3.1 billion.
• TROW preliminary month-end assets under management of $1.68 trillion as of June 30, 2025. Preliminary net outflows in June 2025 were $7.0 billion, primarily driven by the timing of a few redemptions and client rebalancing.
• VCTR reported Total Assets Under Management of $298.6B, Other Assets of $3.1B, and Total Client Assets of $301.6B, as of June 30, 2025
• VRTS preliminary assets under management of $170.7B and other fee earning assets of $1.8B for total client assets of $172.5B as of June 30, 2025. The increase in AUM from March 31, 2025, reflects market performance and positive net flows in exchange-traded funds, partially offset by net outflows in institutional accounts

• In Banks: Earnings kicking off next week: on Tuesday 7/15 BK, BLK, C, JPM, STT, WFC are expected to report in the morning and FULT, HWC at night; on Wednesday 7/16 BAC, CBSH, FHN, GS, MS, MTB, PNC expected in the AM; on Thursday 7/17 CFG, USB, WBS in banks (and TRV in insurance) in the morning followed by FNB, IBKR, OZK at night; lastly on Friday 7/18, AXP, HBAN, INDB, RF, SCHW, TFC are expected to report. NTRS was downgraded to Underperform at KBW Inc saying the recent run in the stock has taken out much of the economics for a potential deal, it believes, and its estimated takeout price of $128 limits upside for investors. In KBW’s view, BK would be a powerful potential combination.
• In FinTech: PYPL, XYZ and other FinTechs shares fell late Friday after Bloomberg reported JPM has told financial-technology companies that it will start charging fees amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars for access to their customers’ bank account information – a move that threatens to upend the industry’s business models. Separately, the WSJ reported Fintech Startup iCapital Raises $820M in a deal that values it at more than $7.5B, the company said. It was last valued at about $6B in 2022, according to PitchBook. Asset manager T. Rowe Price and investment firm SurgoCap Partners led the new investment.
• In REITs: MAA was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at Goldman Sachs saying they find that while sunbelt demand (measured by gross absorption) is now outpacing supply, significant vacancy levels remain and will need to be worked through before pricing power improves. ADC, FVR were both downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; ADC as best-in-class portfolio reflected in premium valuation and cut FVR on unexpected management transition, achieving economies of scale may take longer than expected and portfolio performance vs peers lag – said reiterate Overweight on NNN.
• In Insurance: State Farm is raising rates by an average of 27.2%, affecting approximately 1.49 million policyholders and adding $522.8 million in annual written premium, according to a June 2 filing with the Illinois Department of Insurance. The maximum approved rate hike stands at 39.9%, notes a regulatory filing.

• KPTI said it is reducing its workforce by 20%; expects its one-time expenses in connection with these actions to be immaterial; says board is evaluating financing and strategic alternatives.
• PFE and its German partner BNTX asked London’s Court of Appeal on Thursday to overturn a ruling that their COVID-19 vaccine infringed one of Moderna’s (MRNA) patents, in the latest round of a long-running legal dispute between the two sides
• In Healthcare Technology/Services: OSCR was downgraded from Equal Weight to Underweight at Wells Fargo and cut its tgt to $10 from $16 saying the pricing for most plans does not appear adequate to produce stable margins this year. For 2025, OSCR’s pricing was ~6% on average. The company described its approach as pricing for trend and allowing the impact of cost-of-care initiatives to support improving MLR.
• In Life Science and Tools: TMO upgraded to Outperform at Scotia, Reiterate Outperform for WAT and TECH and downgraded ILMN to Sector Perform on valuation noting over the first half of 2025, the large cap life science tools companies have under-performed the S&P 500, broader healthcare sector. With LST-13 now trading near the 10-year trough on a forward P/ E basis, Scotia believes the worst-case outlook for the group has been largely factored into valuations.

• ATRO was upgraded to Buy at Truist and downgraded ASLE to Hold saying expectations are riding high into Q2 earnings across the A&D complex and in order for the sector to keep working a high bar must be cleared in Truist’s view. Tariff headwinds should prove manageable across both comm’l aero and defense. SMID cap defense and space stocks are seemingly in a sweet spot trading at a 122% valuation premium to large cap peers and across the sector expect ’25 outlooks to be increased amid favorable global defense spending.
• BA shares active after the WSJ reported that India’s Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau is expected to release a preliminary report Friday on Air India flight 171, which crashed June 12 and killed about 260 people on the plane and on the ground. The Journal said the initial investigation has focused on the actions of the pilots, and so far doesn’t point to a problem with the Boeing 787 Dreamliner.

• In Materials: ALB was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS and cut tgt to $57 from $64 saying they believe lithium markets will remain oversupplied through 2026. UBS thinks ALB realized pricing moves up modestly Y/Y, but its 2026 lithium price forecast is 6-15% below consensus, putting its ’26 EBITDA 14% below consensus.
• In Chemicals: WDFC reported Q2 results while raising FY25 EPS view to $5.30-$5.60 from $5.25-$5.55 (est. $5.52) and narrows FY25 revenue view to $600M-$620M from $600M-$620M; NTR was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies in ag chemicals noting Nutrien has benefited YTD from multiple disruptions in fertilizer supply but says positive earnings momentum near-term appears discounted: consensus revisions likely peak by mid-2026. The firm said once the EU approves GE crops, input efficiency as a new investor theme could drive a 50-100bps ($6-$12/sh.) derating. Covestro (COVTY) cut its full-year Ebitda outlook to a range of 700M-1.1B euros ($818.65 million-1.29 billion), down from a previously expected 1-1.4 billion euros. BNTGY also lowered its 2025 EBITDA guidance to EU950M-1.05B in the chemical space.

• In Internet & Media: META shares sipped following reports new EU charges could be in coming weeks, daily fines could follow shortly; the company is unlikely to offer additional changes to pay-or-consent model to EU; SPOT price tgt was raised to $860 from $640 at Keybanc ahead of earnings saying they expect Q2 results and Q3 guidance may contain some noise around FX, social charges, and seasonal gross margin (GM%) dynamics.
• In Equipment and Communications: TEL was upgraded to Buy and APH maintained Buy at Citigroup ahead of earnings in two weeks saying the firm prefers component/connector names in its coverage (relative to OEMs) with limited direct tariff impacts and more diversified end markets, though not immune to end demand risk. Panasonic delays full production at US battery plant as Tesla sales drop Trump’s EV hesitation adds uncertainty
• In Semiconductors: NVDA remains a market standout, rising to another fresh all-time record as its market cap tops $4 trillion this week, the first company with such a valuation; TXN which recently hit all-time highs, was upgraded to Buy from Hold at TD Cowen and raised its tgt to $245 from $200 saying with more confidence the industrial semis de-stocking is ending, and flexible CAPEX in 2026+.