Early Look

Monday, July 21, 2025

After closing last week higher, U.S. futures are pointing to new record highs yet again for the S&P and Nasdaq, heading into a very busy week of earnings as roughly 20% of S&P 500 index earnings are expected to report this week (as per @WallStHorizon), as 112 S&P 500 companies (including 5 Dow 30 companies and 2 Mag7 companies with TSLA, GOOGL reporting). The U.S. stock market ended mixed on Friday, with the S&P 500 logging weekly gains as companies rolled out their quarterly earnings reports and investors weighed tariff-related risks. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.59%, the Nasdaq climbed 1.51%, and the Dow fell 0.07%. Investors staggered toward the finish line on Friday of a topsy-turvy week marked by hot/cold inflation data, generally solid earnings and fears that U.S. President Donald Trump would oust Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Reports early Friday that President Trump will seek minimum tariffs of 15% to 20% on all imports from the European Union pushed markets slightly lower. Shares of crypto-linked companies jumped on Monday, as ether prices advanced after President Donald Trump signed into law a bill regulating stablecoins in the U.S.

Japanese Premier Shigeru Ishiba vowed to remain in his post after his ruling coalition suffered a bruising defeat in upper house elections. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index was closed, the Shanghai Index gained 25 points to 3,559, and the Hang Seng Index advanced 168 points to 24,994. Markets in Japan were closed for a holiday on Monday, although the yen strengthened and Nikkei futures rose slightly. In Europe, the German DAX is down -50 points to 24,239, while the FTSE 100 is down -4 points to 8,987.

Some remarkable stats about the stock market given the non-stop upward momentum since the April lows and the upward momentum in the largest tech stocks driving the overall market. 1) @bespokeinvest tweeted, “The Tech sector came into today on a 46-trading day streak of closes in “overbought” territory. That extended to 47 today. It would need to fall 3.5% from here to move back into neutral territory. Longest streak was 68 trading days ending in Feb. 1999…”; 2) @charliebilello noted, “At $4.2 trillion, Nvidia’s market cap is now over $1 trillion higher than all of the stocks in the Russell 2000 combined”.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -142.30 points, or 0.32%, to 44,342.19
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 10.01 points, or 0.05%, to 20.895.66
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -13.68 points, or 0.61% to 2,240.01

• Earnings After the Close: AGNC ASYS ARE BOKF CALX CCK ELS HBCP HIT MEDP NXPI RBB RLI SFBS SMBK STLD TRST WASH WRB WTFC ZION

• European Union envoys are set to meet as early as this week to formulate a plan for measures to respond to a possible no-deal scenario with US President Donald Trump ahead of an August 1 deadline.
• U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said he was confident the United States can secure a trade deal with the European Union, but August 1 is a hard deadline for tariffs to kick in. Lutnick said he had just gotten off the phone with European trade negotiators and there was “plenty of room” for agreement.
• Taiwan says more trade talks with the US will be held this week, while also hitting back at domestic speculation that the self-run democracy had already received a tariff letter from the U.S.

• Barnes & Noble Education (BNED) delayed the filing of its annual report because of an issue with recording the cost of digital sales that it first learned about earlier this month.
• Dollar Tree (DLTR) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays and raise tgt to $120 from $95 saying the company is positioned to benefit from a trade down by consumes, which will accelerate in the second half of 2025.
• Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) Q2 EPS $3.81 vs. est. $3.96; Q2 revs $1.15B vs. est. $1.14B; Q2 U.S. same store sales growth of 3.4% vs. est. 2.21%; reports Q2 international same store sales growth, excluding foreign currency impact, of 2.4%; said online sales also grew, helped by discounts and from the success of its partnership w DoorDash (DASH).
• Stellantis (STLA) reported a preliminary 2.3 billion euro ($2.7 billion) first-half loss as it faces the dual challenge of revamping its product ranges in Europe and the United States while also dealing with the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on imports of vehicles and auto parts.
• Target (TGT) was downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays with $91 tgt saying that absent a bigger strategic shift, the company’s sales will continue to underperform. Target’s comps have improved in Q2 but have continued to underperform in both consumables and general merchandise.
• Chinese automotive firm Zeekr (ZK) said in a statement on Sunday that used cars described in media reports as having zero mileage were exhibition cars that were insured, but it did not sell or register them.

• Deere Inc. (DE) was mentioned positively in Barron’s saying the company is drawing more interest from investors after a long and cold winter; shares have gained nearly 20% since January and is maintaining its momentum. The company’s fundamentals remain robust and its move into using AI has great potential.
• Ryanair’s (RYAAY) Q2 net profit more than doubled, thanks to the timing of Easter holidays and better-than-expected last-minute fares; reported a net profit of 820 million euros ($953 million) for the first quarter, up from 360 million euros y/y (analysts had expected 716 million euros).
• Turkey is close to preliminary deal for euro fighter combat jet order, sources Say; Talks between Turkish and U.K. government are advanced

• Blackstone (BX) has withdrawn from a consortium seeking to invest in TikTok’s U.S. operations, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters on Friday. The latest change came as uncertainty has mounted and there have been several delays in the TikTok deal now at the center of U.S.-China trade talks.
• Figma, backers seek to raise up to $1.03 billion In IPO – Bloomberg.
• The Ether Reserve, a new crypto venture backed by prominent crypto investors, will list on the Nasdaq through a merger with blank-check firm Dynamix Corporation and is expected to raise over $1.6B. The combined entity, to be named The Ether Machine, aims to launch with more than 400,000 Ether on its balance sheet.

• Sarepta (SRPT) downgraded to Underperform from Hold at Needham with no tgt.

• Pinterest (PINS) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley and raise tgt to $45 from $37 saying the company’s investments will deliver monetization improvements and earnings power in the second half of 2025; advertising checks are constructive on Pinterest’s improving ad efficiency and performance-driven growth.