Early Look

Monday, August 4, 2025

S&P futures (Spuz) rebounded +0.6%, moving back above 6,300 this morning after tumbling -1.72% on Friday following weaker jobs data, and tariff impacts. July’s jobs report came in less than expected, and previous months’ tallies were revised sharply lower, while also the updated tariffs set to come into full effect this week range from 10% to 41% on a wide range of trading partners. Trump’s battle with the Fed and Chair Jerome Powell has also remained in focus. But after the weak jobs data, almost 90% of bets are on a cut in September. For last week, the S&P 500 fell 2.36%, the Nasdaq declined 2.17%, and the Dow fell 2.92%, The S&P 500 ended down -1.6%, on Friday for the biggest one-day percentage drop since May 21 while the Nasdaq closes 2.2% lower, biggest one-day percentage drop since April 21. Earnings season continues to roll with a busy week of corporate releases as over 100 S&P 500 companies are set to report, with spotlights on Palantir (PLTR), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Disney (DIS). In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index tumbled -508 points to 40,290, the Shanghai Index rose 23 points to 3,583, and the Hang Seng Index gained 225 points to 24,733. In Europe, the German DAX is jumping 310 points or 1.3% to 23,736, while the FTSE 100 is up 29 points to 9,098. After closing above the 20 level on Friday on the stock market pullback, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is down about -7 % under 19 this morning as investors jump on the dip as a buying opportunity. Oil prices fall, gold rises and Bitcoin is weaker at $114,300 ahead of a busy week of earnings.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -542.40 points, or 1.23%, to 43,588.58
• The Nasdaq Composite plunged -472.32 points, or 2.24%, to 20,650.13
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -44.87 points, or 2.03% to 2,166.78

• 10:00 AM ET                Durable Goods Orders M/M for June
• 10:00 AM ET                Factory Orders M/M for June

• Earnings After the Close: ADUS ADTN ACM AL ALGT ALSN AMRC ANDE ARDX AHH BGS BMRN BRBR BSM BWXT CBT CSTL CSR CTRA CRBY CRGY CVRX DENN DHC DORM EHC EQR EVER FANG GBDC GLAD HIMS HSTM HSII ICHR IAC INSP KD LSCC LTC MED MELI MWA NSA NVTS NJR NGVT ODD OKE OLO OPAD OTTR PAY PLOW PLMR PLTR PRAA PRIM RHP RAIL RIG SBRA SBAC SIBN SKT SMLR SPG STR SNDX TCMD TDUP TREX VAC VMEO VNO VNOM VRTX VVX WMB WTI

• China Caixin Services PMI for July

• President Trump is pressuring India and China to stop buying oil from Russia and Iran, according to a report on Monday. China called the demand a key hurdle in trade talks, saying it ‘will always ensure its energy supply in ways that serve our national interests.’
• Investors should buy into the selloff in US stocks because of the robust earnings outlook for the coming year, according to Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson. While the S&P 500 faces pressure from the weakening labor market and tariff-related inflation that may delay Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, investors should view any pullback as a buying opportunity, Wilson wrote in a note Monday.

• Tesla (TSLA) committee approves award of 96M shares of restricted stock to CEO Musk, which likely removes an overhang and should solidify Musk as CEO for Tesla for a while.

• BP Plc (BP) announces oil, gas discovery at Bumerangue prospect in offshore Brazil. BP drilled exploration well 1-BP-13-SPS at the Bumerangue block, located in the Santos Basin, 404 kilometers from Rio de Janeiro, in a water depth of 2,372 meters. The well was drilled to a total depth of 5,855 meters.
• Kodiak Gas Services (KGS) will replace NV5 Global (NVEE) in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Wednesday, August 6^th.
• SandRidge Energy (SD) files $500M mixed securities shelf.
• Shell (SHEL) downgraded to Hold from Buy at HSBC.

• Coinbase (COIN) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Compass Point with a price target of $248 (from $330) as remains constructive on the current crypto cycle but expects a choppy Q3 with weak August and September seasonality along with waning retail interest in crypto treasury stocks.
• Loews Corp (L) reported a rise in Q2 profit on Monday, helped by higher investment income and strong performance in its insurance unit; Net income attributable to Loews rose to $391 million, or $1.87 per share, in the three months ended June 30, compared with $369 million, or $1.67 per share, a year earlier.
• Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) announced it received written notice from Nasdaq that the company has regained compliance with Nasdaq’s minimum bid price requirement.
• Real estate investment firm Cortland Partners will buy a 19-asset portfolio from Elme Communities (ELME) for $1.6 billion in cash. The transaction is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025, Elme Communities said.

• Waters (WAT) Q2 EPS $2.95 vs. est. $2.94 and revs $771.33M vs. est. $749.51M; sees Q3 EPS $3.15-$3.25, vs. consensus $3.24 and sees Q3 revenue up 5%-7%.
• The U.S. FDA top vaccine official, Vinay Prasad, has left the agency after just three months as Director of the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, a government spokesperson said. Prasad, an oncologist who was a fierce critic of U.S. COVID-19 vaccine and mask mandates, had been appointed in May by FDA Commissioner Marty Makary.

• Chemours (CC), DuPont (DD), and Corteva (CTVA) reached agreement with the state of New Jersey to comprehensively resolve all environmental claims including PFAs. DuPont, Corteva to buy Chemours’ insurance rights for $150M as settlement payments total $875M over 25 years starting 2026. DuPont and Corteva will establish a reserve fund based on their respective cost sharing percentages, capped at $475M.
• Joby Aviation (JOBY) is said to weigh deal for helicopter ride-share operator Blade (BLDE) – Bloomberg news reported.
• Seven associations of shippers, or freight railroad customers, have demanded regulators to block or put more conditions on the proposed merger between Union Pacific (UNP) and Norfolk Southern (NSC) – Financial Times.
• China has begun to limit the flow of critical minerals to Western defense manufacturers, which has delayed production and led many companies to sear the world for stockpiles of the minerals needed – WSJ.

• Spotify (SPOT) said it would increase the monthly price of its premium individual subscription in select markets from September; the subscription price will rise to 11.99 euros ($13.86) per month from 10.99 euros in markets including South Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Europe, Latin America and the Asia-Pacific region.