Closing Recap

Friday, August 15, 2025

Outside of a solid bounce early for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, hitting new record highs (thanks to a 12% gain in shares of UNH today) the S&P 500 and Nasdaq did a whole lot of nothing on this August option’s expiration Friday, but ended with weekly gains across the board. UNH shares paced the gains in the Dow after Berkshire Hathaway (among other influential investors Scion, Pine, Appaloosa) raised its stake in the health insurer according to quarterly 13F filings. There was a deluge of economic data on the day (see below), following mixed inflation data earlier in the week that pushed Treasury yields higher the last few days and sunk crypto prices (Bitcoin to $117K after record highs above $123K mid-week). Smallcaps led rising 3% this week.

While this was a big week of economic data, including in-line CPI data on Tuesday that boosted stock markets, followed by hotter PPI inflation data on Thursday amid a spike in services (which failed to weigh on markets), next week will be interesting with the Fed Jackson Hole annual symposium starting next Thursday with Fed Chairman Powell speaking on Friday. Have to wonder given the higher inflation the last two days if the Chairman will push back on rate cuts this week which are about 95% priced into fed fund futures markets. It is notable however that we will get another jobs report, along with another CPI, PPI, and PCE inflation reading before the actual FOMC policy meeting in the middle of September.

 This afternoon the media focused on the upcoming US President Trump and Russian President Putin face-to-face meeting in many years in Alaska this afternoon, trying to work out a peace deal with Ukraine. In sector news, healthcare was a surprise winner this week (XLV +4.65% WTD), along with communications (XLC +3%) thanks to META, while semis (SOX) declined Friday behind weak AMAT guidance. The Mag 7 names were strong all week with AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT all helping keep broader averages near highs. While the Smallcap Russell 2000 started the weak ripping higher on aggressive rate cut hopes but slipped late week after the PPI.

• July retail sales rose +0.5%, in-line with consensus while July Retail Sales Ex-autos/gasoline +0.2% vs June +0.8% (prev +0.6%). Retail Sales Ex-autos/gas/building materials/food services +0.5% vs June +0.8%; July Retail Sales Ex-gasoline +0.5% vs June +0.9%.
• July industrial output slipped (-0.1%), slightly below the consensus for unchanged and down vs June +0.4%; July industrial output ex cars/parts -0.1% vs June +0.5% and July mining output -0.4% (June -0.3%), utilities output -0.2% (June +1.8%). Capacity use rate 77.5%, in-line and down vs June 77.7%.
• July export prices rose +0.1%, in-line with consensus and below June +0.5% while July import prices +0.4% (cons. Unchanged) vs June -0.1%.
• June Business Inventories +0.2%, in-line with consensus and vs. the May unchanged; June business sales +0.5% vs May -0.4%; June retail inventories ex-autos revised to -0.1%.
• University of Michigan surveys of consumers sentiment prelim Aug slides to 58.6, below consensus 62.0 and the final July 61.7; current conditions index prelim Aug 60.9 (consensus 67.9) vs final July 68.0 and expectations index prelim Aug 57.2 (consensus 56.5) vs final July 57.7
• China’s growth stumbles in July as retail sales, industrial output miss forecasts: Retail sales last month rose 3.7% from a year earlier, sharply missing analysts’ estimates for a 4.6% growth. Industrial output rose 5.7% from a year ago in July, its weakest level since November last year. Fixed-asset investment expanded 1.6% year-to-date in July, slowing from 2.8% in the first six months. CNBC
• Japan’s economy expands more than expected in second quarter as exports remain resilient. Japan’s economy expanded 0.3% quarter-over-quarter in the second quarter of 2025. On a year-over-year basis, Japan’s GDP expanded 1.2% in the second quarter. The GDP beat can be mainly attributed to net exports, which contributed 0.3 percentage points to GDP.

• Gold prices slip -$0.60 to settle at $3,382.60 an ounce, ending at a weekly loss just under -2% after hot inflation data trimmed rate-cut bets, while the market focus shifted to talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. The US dollar had a little support today on stronger retail sales data but ended the week with losses vs. counterparts.
• Oil prices slipped on the day and week; for Friday, U.S. WTI crude oil futures settle at $62.80/bbl, falling -$1.16, or 1.81% and ending the week near the lows while Brent fell -$0.99 or 1.48% to settle at $65,85 per barrel. Prices fell amid expectations/hopes the US can broker a peace deal between Ukraine/Russia. Both WTI crude and Brent fell between -1.5%-1.7% this week.
• Baker Hughes reports that the U.S. rig count is unchanged from last week at 539 with oil rigs up 1 to 412, gas rigs down 1 to 122 and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 5. The U.S. Rig Count is down 47 rigs from last year’s count of 586 with oil rigs down 71, gas rigs up 24 and miscellaneous unchanged.

• In Mattress Retail: Piper noted its Mattress Retailer Survey for July (surveying ~15 retailers representing >600 stores) posted mean/median sales of +7.7%/+7.0% y/y — all in, the strongest performance since December 2021 and the 4th consecutive month of positive y/y sales. July strength was driven by mattress units, which meaningfully accelerated to +6% y/y. SGI remains Piper’s favorite name within sector while is cautious on LEG for share losses and SNBR app download declines; Wayfair (W) favorite furniture name.
• In Retail: TGT was downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Bank America and cut tgt to $93 from $105 as sees increasing longer-term sales and margin risks given slowing digital sales growth, a lack of scale in digital advertising and 3P marketplace and tariff impacts. LULU shares rose after Michael Burry’s Scion Asset Management took a new equity position in the athletic-wear maker, while cutting its position in Estee Lauder Cos. As per 13F filings.
• In Restaurants: WING was upgraded from Outperform to Strong Buy at Raymond James w/ $420 PT saying they remain confident that comps can begin to improve through September and accelerate further through Q4 as comparisons ease and also believe Smart Kitchen is a game changer. QSR downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus saying the company’s second quarter earnings shortfall brings to light the difficult operating environment fast food chains are navigating as thrifty consumers tighten their belts. NDLS was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Benchmark following earnings results.

• In Utilities: ED was double downgraded to Underperform from Buy at Bank America as the firm sees limited upside under the current regulatory and political climate. SR was downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Bank America following the announcement of its $2.48bn acquisition of Piedmont Natural Gas on July 29, 2025, as analysis finds limited near-term accretion given premium purchase multiples, financing uncertainty, and modest synergy potential.
• In Industrials: KMT was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS and raised its tgt to $21 from $19 as downside thesis has played out and sees balanced risk/reward for KMT with macro risks easing; DE shares pared losses after tumbling on Thursday on narrowed guidance.
• In Aerospace & Defense: JOBY said it achieves the first piloted eVTOL Air Taxi Flight between two public airports; RCAT shares declined on earnings as Q2 EPS loss (-$0.15) vs. est. loss (-$0.12); Q2 revs $3.22M vs. est. $7.72M, while also mentioned in short report by Fuzzy Panda on “X” https://tinyurl.com/3wfst7k5
• In Metals & Mining: NUE shares rose after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway raised his passive stake by 14.9% to 6.6Mm shares.
• In Homebuilders: the sector gets some interest, with shares of DHI and LEN rising after Berkshire Hathaway revealed new stakes in both in 13F filings last night; 7M share stake for LEN and 1,4M for DHI.

• Global equity funds logged their largest weekly inflows in six weeks in the week to August 13, lifted by a softer-than-expected U.S. inflation print and an extension of a tariff truce between the United States and China which boosted investor sentiment. –Investors snapped up a net $19.32B worth of global equity funds during the week, reversing their net sale of $7.63B for the prior week, data from LSEG Lipper showed. –U.S. equity funds led regional inflows of net $8.77B, partly refilling the outflow of $13.89B the prior week. –European and Asian funds, meanwhile, drew in net $7.08B and $2.07B in weekly investments, respectively.
• In Banks: NU shares rallied on earnings as Q2 EPS $0.13 vs. est. $0.14; Q2 revs $3.7B vs. est. $3.67B; said in Q2 expanded customer base to nearly 123 million with over 4.1 million net additions, and maintaining activity rate above 83%.
• Real Estate Services: OPEN announced Carrie Wheeler steps down as Opendoor CEO & chair; appoints Shrisha Radhakrishna as President and interim leader as searches for next CEO.

• PGEN rises as the FDA approves its Papzimeos drug to become the first and only treatment for recurrent respiratory papillomatosis.
• SLNO shares fell on short call from Scorpion research as noted on “X” https://scorpioncapital.com/
• TNXP shares decline ahead of PDUFA: TNX-102 SL (cyclobenzaprine HCl sublingual tablets) for the treatment of fibromyalgia. The FDA assigned a PDUFA goal date for a decision on marketing approval.
• The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services said on Thursday it is reinstating a federal task force for safer childhood vaccines after 27 years. The original task force was created by Congress under the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act of 1986 to improve the safety, quality and oversight of vaccines administered to American children. It was disbanded in 1998 and has been inactive ever since
• Managed care stocks seeing strength: UNH shares jumped after quarterly 13F filings showed several high-profile investors, including Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, Michael Burry’s Scion Asset, and David Tepper’s Appaloosa were among those taking stakes in the health insurer in Q2 lifting shares. Shares of other managed care companies CI, ELV, HUM, CNCand MOH also saw strength on hopes the beaten-up sector, down between 40-50% this year on ACA changes, may be turning a corner with investors.
• Hospital Sector (CYH, HCA, THC, UHS): UBS said its monthly hospital survey (representing 296 hospitals across 23 states) suggests that July inpatient volumes were up 1.0% Y/Y vs. up 1.2% in June and 1.4% in May). UBS estimate that the calendar had a negative 0.3% impact due to the days in the week. Accounting for this impact, inpatient volumes would have been up 1.3%.
• Healthcare Services: HIMS shares slipped after Bloomberg reported that for more than a year, the FTC has been investigating Hims & Hers Health’s business practices, including whether it has made it too hard for customers to cancel subscriptions https://tinyurl.com/35ahvwbb

• IT Services & Consulting: GLOB shares declined, downgraded at JP Morgan saying Q2 last night was fine, but 2H revenue outlook was reduced by -2% while EPS was protected with a modest raise, implying a lackluster FY25 exit rate of -9% revenue growth.
• In Software: CRM was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Davidson with an unchanged price target of $225 noting Salesforce has underperformed the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) by 27 points since it reported fiscal Q1 results on May 28 and by 48 points ytd. TWLO shares rose after news it will be added the S&P MidCap 400 index on 8/19, replacing AMED.
• Video Game Software: RBLX shares fell following news late Thursday that Louisiana Attorney General Liz Murrill had filed suit against the video-game company; it alleges lack of safety controls to protect children.
• In Hardware & Storage: SNDK reported a beat on revenue and EPS in the quarter and guided revenues for FQ126 above consensus, but shares slipped based on a below consensus GM guide of 29% at midpoint vs 30% consensus due to $10M-$15M in underutilization charges and $60mn in fab startup costs in the qtr.

• U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he would announce tariffs on imports of steel and semiconductor chips in coming weeks. "I’ll be setting tariffs next week and the week after on steel and on, I would say, chips," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One as he headed to a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. He said the rates would be lower at the start to allow companies to build up domestic manufacturing in the U.S., rising sharply later, following a pattern he has also outlined for tariffs on pharmaceuticals. He gave no exact rates.