Closing Recap

Thursday, July 10, 2025

U.S. stocks push higher again, climbing day after day heading into earnings season next week, as investors show very little concern about anything to this point. Overall, it was a very quiet day, with one piece of economic data (weekly jobless claims improved), a few Fed speakers, and an in-line 30-year bond auction. With no notable news today on trade/tariffs, after the White House announced tariff increases (effective Aug 1) for 22 countries this week alone, the macro picture was also quiet. All in all, with no negative headlines, stock markets just continued to plod along higher, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Bitcoin prices all hitting record highs again in what has been a rip-roaring bounce of over 25% since the April lows. Transports outperformed behind a jump in airlines after Delta (DAL) posted a quarterly beat and raise, crypto assets/Bitcoin miners jumped behind a new high in Bitcoin; NYSE breadth was positive as Smallcaps once again outperformed (nine of eleven sectors closed “green” outside of weakness in communications and technology led by software weakness).

In sentiment readings: 1) This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index reading pulled back to 86.28, falling from last week’s 99.30, which was the highest reading since the 99.24 reading on 12/11 – recent trough from 4-17 of 35.16 – Last Quarter Average (Q2) of 73.28; 2) The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was +5.8 vs +11.9 last week as Bulls fall to 41.4% from 45%, Neutrals rise to 23% from 21.9%, and Bears rise to 35.6% from 33.1%.

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said on Thursday the time to cut rates is nearing, without saying when she believes that should happen. “I really am of the view that it’s time” to weigh the need to cut interest rates to ensure the economy stays in the good place where it currently resides, Daly said at an event held by Market News International. “I see two cuts … as a likely outcome,” while noting there is still a lot of uncertainty around that outlook, Daly said.

• August gold prices rose $4.70 or 0.14% to settle at $3,325.70 an ounce
• The U.S. Treasury sold $22B in 30-year notes at a yield of 4.889% vs. 4.89% when issued prior, as bid-to-cover ratio 2.38 (vs. prior auction of 2.43), and primary dealers take 12.82% of U.S. 29-year 10-month bond sale, direct 27.4% and indirect 59.78%
• U.S. WTI crude oil futures settle at $66.57/bbl, down $1.81, or 2.65%; Front Month Nymex Natural Gas for Aug. delivery gained 12.30 cents per million British thermal units, or 3.83% to $3.3370 per million British thermal units today; Brent Crude futures settle at $68.64/bbl, down $1.55, or 2.21%.

• In Food & Beverages: KLG to be acquired by Ferrero for $23 per share in deal valued at $3.1B (confirms last night report by WSJ of M&A interest) https://tinyurl.com/2kbrs2bc ; CAG shares slumped after Q4 revs $2.78B missed the $2.83B consensus estimate and adj EPS of $0.56 missed the $0.58 on weaker guidance as forecasts FY26 adj EPS $1.70-$1.85, below analysts’ average estimate of $2.19 saying the outlook accounts for 50% tariff rate on imported tin plate steel and aluminum, a 30% rate on limited imports from China and a 10% reciprocal rate on imports from others; CAG, GIS, CPB, SMPL were among food stocks all hitting 52-week lows today.
• Leisure Sector: and cruise line names saw strength as better earnings and guidance from Delta (DAL) provided upbeat sentiment about consumer spending; shares of cruise CCL, RCL, NCLH, lodging/online travel EXPE, BKNG, ABNB and hotels H, MAR, HLT saw early gains. In Autos, the Arizona Department Of Transportation said TSLA contacted them on autonomous vehicle ride-sharing services on June 26 to begin certification process. In casinos, Sky news reported late day that FLUT, the group behind Paddy Power and Betfair, is in advanced talks to buy a further 5% stake in FanDuel, the US-based sports betting company, from BYD in a deal expected to be worth close to $2B. https://tinyurl.com/7m243ay4

• In Utilities/Alternative Energy: FCEL shares rose early after the company and data center developer Inuverse sign MoU to deploy up to 100 megawatts (MW) of fuel cell-based power in phased increments starting in 2027 at the AI Daegu Data Center (AI DDC) in South Korea.

• In Crypto: another strong showing for Bitcoin topping $113K for the first time while Ethereum advanced as well, lifting crypto miners in the process CIFR, CLSK, HIVE, HUT, IREN, MARA, RIOT, WULF as well as names like MSTR, COIN, HOOD downgraded to Sell from Buy at H.C. Wainwright with a $300 price target citing valuation for the downgrade as still views Coinbase as a "Best of Breed" crypto exchange.
• In Consumer Finance: the WSJ reported this afternoon that WFC is planning to end a flashy credit-card partnership that lets people earn rewards points for charging their rent. The partnership with Bilt had been scheduled to end in 2029, but Wells decided to exit early after it became a money-losing venture, according to people familiar with the matter.

• ALT shares slipped as Goldman Sachs resumed coverage with a Sell rating and $1 price target, representing 79% downside saying the company’s data to-date has not demonstrated a meaningfully differentiated profile for pemvidutide in either obesity or metabolic dysfunction associated steatohepatitis, and sees challenges for Altimmune to execute the full clinical development program.
• MRK said the FDA will review its application seeking approval of its proposed doravirine/islatravir regimen in certain adults with HIV-1 infection; said the application covers the investigational, once-daily, oral two-drug regimen for adults with HIV-1 infection that is virologically suppressed on antiretroviral therapy.
• MRNA said the FDA has granted full approval for its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax, in children aged 6 months through 11 years who are at an increased risk of the disease.
• NRIX Q2 revenues of $44.1M rose from $12.1M y/y and were well above consensus estimates of $17.5M.
• PCRX said it will cut 71 jobs, or about 8% of its workforce, at its San Diego Science Center after upgrading to larger manufacturing suites for its EXPAREL pain management product
• SLNO pre-announced $31-33M in Vyakt XR sales for Q2 (the drug was approved in late March to treat Prader-Willi syndrome), above consensus but announced a proposed $200M share stock offering.

• In Hospitals (HCA, CYH, UHS, THC): UBS said in quarterly preview that Hospital volumes appear on track to continue growing at a solid pace. The companies all left full year volumes guidance unchanged after Q1 results and continue to expect that volume growth in 2025 will remain elevated vs. historical trends.
• In Managed Care: CNC and MOH were both downgraded to equal weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley and cut price tgts as unexpected NT challenges outweigh the LT upside levers referenced in its initiation. Accordingly, MSCO update its estimates to reflect each company’s latest preannouncements.

• In Housing: Marjorie Taylor Greene has introduced the No Tax on Home Sales Act to eliminate the federal capital gains tax on home sales.
• In Transports: airlines a bright spot today after DAL posted a quarterly beat and upbeat forecast asQ2 adj EPS $2.10 vs. est. $2.07 on revs $15.51B vs. est. $15.45B; guides FY adj EPS $5.25-$6.25 vs. est. $5.35; forecast a Q3 adj profit of $1.25-$1.75 vs. est. $1.31 (AAL, UAL, LUV, ALK, JBLU shares rose).
• In Industrials: MEI shares fell after earnings results as Q4 adjusted EPS loss ($0.77) vs. loss (-$0.23) y/y and revs down to $257.1M vs. $277.3M y/y on weaker guide saying experienced a significant ramp down in expected demand from one of our largest EV customers and delays with other EV customers; AGCO announces $1B share repurchase program. CRH was downgraded to Neutral at Davidson as it revisits estimates (and PT) against a backdrop of anticipated slower NT organic growth.
• In Aerospace & Defense: ERJ shares fell along with weakness in other US listed Brazilian stocks (after President Trump also placed a 50% tariff rate on Brazil, including energy. Citigroup opened a 90-day positive catalyst watch on shares of FTAI after the co expressed optimism about the global engine module growth, their development of their aircraft leasing partnership. ASTS was initiated at Buy and $59 PT at Clear Street saying it presents a long-term mobile growth opportunity by targeting ~5.6B global mobile users with patented satellite technology, eliminating specialized ground equipment. LMT was downgraded to Hold from Buy and HII upgraded to Buy from Hold at TD Cowen in defense.

• Security Software: Davidson said overall security software sales performance improved Q/Q in DADA’s Q2 VAR survey but was still below the trend seen in Q2-Q4 last year. Conversely, they observed a higher mix of VARs indicating forward qtr. pipeline strength below normal seasonality across almost all vendors in the survey, pointing to softness in Federal given the Fed-heavy Q3. On the whole, feedback was most positive for CYBR in coverage (CHKP also generally positive), slightly positive for QLYS slightly negative for VRNS, and negative for both RPD
• In Hardware: Bank America noted IDC released its C2Q preliminary PC data which highlighted +6.5% y/y increase in units shipped (vs. +3.7% y/y in their model). Lenovo, HPQ, and DELL remained the top 3 global vendors. Apple exhibited the highest shipment growth in the qtr. (+21% y/y). They leave CY25 and CY26 ests unchanged at +2.6% and +3.9% units shipped respectively as PC refresh from Win 10 EOL takes hold.
• In AI/Data Centers: CNBC reported AMZN said Wednesday that its cloud division has developed hardware to cool down next-generation NVDA graphics processing units that are used for AI workloads (the news weighed heavily on shares of VRT, TT, ETN, NVT). The In-Row Heat Exchanger that Amazon engineers designed will cool Nvidia’s massive AI systems. Separately, the Financial Times reported AMZN is considering another multibillion-dollar investment in AI firm Anthropic, potentially extending beyond its current $8B stake to counterbalance the OpenAI-MSFT partnership.

• AXTI shares fell after cutting its Q2 revenue view to $17.5M-$18M from $20M-$22M, below consensus $20.85M citing slower than expected issuance of export control permits for gallium arsenide products, weaker demand environment in China.
• MBLY 50M share Spot Secondary priced at $16.50
• MU was initiated at Buy and $150 PT at Deutsche Bank saying they are constructive on both the cyclical and secular setup facing Micron. On the secular side, believes High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) is an underrated driver of GEN/GEN AI processor performance and on the cyclical side, we see a path to continued bit growth and ASP expansion in non-HBM DRAM in the coming years.
• TSM reported Q2 revenue of T$933.80B ($31.9B – vs. prior guide $28.4B-$29.2B), beating market forecasts of T$927.83B, as demand for the company’s products leaps on surging interest in artificial intelligence applications, and rose 38.6% from T$673.51B in the year ago period.
• In Flash/HDD/Memory: Mizuho positive- raising STX PT to $155 from $130 w/ HAMR ramps continuing to drive better ASPs and GMs as demand looks strong into 2026E, w/ higher capacity drives; WDC PT to $75 from $61, sees UltraSMR ramping well ahead of HAMR in 2HC26E and SNDK to $57 from $50 saying WDC is seeing strong UltraSMR ramps into 2H25E as 36TB drives are set to see volume shipments, as NAND pricing improving, driving better GMs.