Mid-Morning Look

Friday, July 25, 2025

A truly remarkable slow steady grind for major U.S. stock averages, with the S&P trying to make it 5 up days this week (rising 7 of last 8 thus far) to fresh all-time highs, buoyed by better earnings and positive trade/tariff headlines all week, while investors have hopes for Fed rate cuts. The Fed meets next week, but chances remain low of a rate cut, while fed fund futures are still banking on 2-rate cuts in 2025. It has been a hectic week of earnings and the brief return of meme traders in force (has quieted down since) and mixed economic signals. If you thought this week was busy for earnings at 23% of the S&P having reported, Monday kicks off the season’s busiest week, amounting to 38% of the S&P 500 on a market cap basis, double this week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. The stock trading range for the last day has been TIGHT, roughly 20 points yesterday for the S&P while just about 10 points today as traders remain complacent. The U.S. dollar is higher today, Bitcoin slumping along with gold, and fear index (VIX) remains depressed at 15 level.

• In Hospital Operators: HCA posted Q2 EPE beat $6.84 vs. $6.25) and raised its 2025 profit forecast to be about $25.50-$27 per share, up from its previous forecast of $24.05 to $25.85 per share as it expects sustained demand for medical procedures to cushion a hit from potential tariffs. The results come a day after CYH shares tumbled, weighing on the entire sector after results/guidance.
• In Beauty & Staples: ULTA was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Loop Capital citing valuation for the downgrade as opposed to a more bearish view on the company’s fundamentals. EL was upgraded to Overweight at JP Morgan and added it to its positive catalyst watch as it believes EL will deliver at the top of their guide given the better than feared 6.18 event and better performance online. The firm also downgraded PG to Neutral as it expects another lackluster quarter and normalization of category growth.
• In Autos: AN Q2 revenue up 8% to $7.0B beating analyst expectations of $6.85B in auto retail, while adjusted EPS rises 37% to $5.46 easily topping the $4.71 estimate on better net income; said it completed $700M asset-backed securitization, boosting financial flexibility. CVNA was upgraded from Perform to Outperform at Oppenheimer with $450 tgt saying it represents a unique, digitally driven disruptor, within the expansive and inefficient domestic used car marketplace. GNTX rallies on results in auto suppliers as Q2 sales rise 15% y/y to $657.9M, topping the $613M estimate on better EPS ($0.47 vs. $0.38) while revises 2025 revenue guidance to $2.44-$2.61B (vs. est. $2.46B). VWAGY reported an EU1.3B ($1.5B) 1H hit from tariffs and cut its FY sales and profit margin forecasts.

• COUR +32%; shares surged after reporting strong Q2 adjusted profit on better revs and boosted its revenue guidance for the full year (hitting 52-week highs); raised its revenue outlook for the full year to a range of $738M-$746M from prior $720M-$730M view.
• DECK +12%; Q1 beat was across the board for EPS, revenue (HOKA and UGG), gross margin (GM%) and EBIT margin. HOKA U.S. DTC was challenged and down y/y, similar to FQ4, but month/month trends improved (and continued into F2QTD).
• EW +3%; rallied on results as put up a +$40M/+$0.05 Q2 beat driven by strong performances across the portfolio led by TAVR (+$30M ahead), which saw growth accelerate to +7.8% cc in Q2 (vs +5.4% cc in Q1) on a gradual delayed benefit from EARLY TAVR in the US.
• FIX +17%; shares jumped after reported 2Q25 adj. EBITDA of $334M, far outpacing consensus of $261M primarily driven by better-than-expected revenue growth of +20.1% y/y despite lapping tough comps, composed of +18.6% organic revenue growth (and better margins).
• SAIA +9%; shares rally on earnings as Q2 revenue slips y/y to $817.9M but was above consensus of $807.9M while EPS declined y/y to $2.67 from $3.83 but above ests $2.39 as the company highlights operational efficiencies and growth in newer markets
• SAM +8%; rallied on results as Q2 revs $587.9M vs. rest. $588.7M; backs FY25 adjusted EPS view $8.00-$10.50 (est. $9.00), cuts FY25 capex spending to $70M-$90M from $90M-$110M and lowers its FY25 depletions/shipments view to down HSD to down LSD from down LSD to up LSD.
• SCHW +1%; authorizes $20B stock repurchase, declares common stock dividend, and declares preferred stock dividends.
• VCYT +8%; will replace TGI in the S&P SmallCap 600 prior to the opening of trading on July 29. Warburg Pincus LLC and Berkshire Partners LLC will acquire Triumph Group in a deal expected to close soon.

• ASTS -7%; priced $500M aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2032 in a private offering to qualified institutional buyers; convertible senior notes have an initial conversion price of $72.07/share.
• CHTR -17%; after in-line Q2 revs of $13.77B but reported a higher-than-expected broadband subscribers’ loss in Q2 by 117,000 in the April-June period, compared with 60,000 losses in the prior quarter (ests were for loss of roughly 73K customers) – shares of CMCSA fall in sympathy.
• CRI -27%; as Q2 net sales rose 4% to $585M; adjusted EPS of $0.17 missed analyst expectations of $0.39; suspends fiscal 2025 guidance due to leadership changes and tariff uncertainties; anticipates $35M net additional tariff impact in H2 fiscal 2025.
• INTC -8%; posted strong Q2 results, which were above expectations, as tariff pull ins drove better than expected CCG/DCAI results, but Q3 guidance is mixed, as revs were above ests given continued CCG strength, while EPS missed due to lower GM as Lunar Lake ramps; also announced massive layoffs.
• SNV -13%; after PNFP agreed to acquire the company in an all-stock transaction valued at $8.6 billion as the deal values Synovus at $61.18 per share. Reuters notes analysts say SNV shares may see some early pressure, given general investor skepticism around merger of equals.
• SRPT -5%; after an evaluating committee of the European Medicines Agency recommended against the approval of the company’s gene therapy Elevidys.