Early Look

Thursday, September 4, 2025

After the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished strong on Wednesday, U.S. futures are holding steadily higher ahead of key private payroll data as weak economic data sparks bets for a September rate cut. The S&P 500 closed higher, thanks largely to a 9% rally in Alphabet (GOOGL) and other tech-related stocks after a U.S. judge in an antitrust case ruled against breaking up the Google parent and said Google can retain control of its Chrome browser and Android mobile operating system. Apple shares also jumped 3.8%, helping major averages as the ruling also preserved lucrative payments that Alphabet makes to ensure Google is the default search tool in the iPhone’s Safari browser. Also on Wednesday, News Story said labor market concerns continue to support their belief that rate cuts lie ahead. Earlier, data showed U.S. News Story more than expected in July and hiring was moderate, consistent with easing labor market conditions. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index advanced 641 points to 42,580, but the Shanghai Index dropped -47 points to 3,765, and the Hang Seng Index fell -284 points to 25,058. China’s blue-chip index fell the most in nearly five months on Thursday after media reports of possible regulatory curbs on speculation. China’s financial regulators are considering a number of cooling measures for the stock market, including removing some short-selling curbs, Bloomberg News reported. In Europe, the German DAX is up 186 points to 23,780, while the FTSE 100 gains 25 points to 9,204. In earnings overnight, shares of AEO surge on earnings results in retail, while in tech, shares of CRM, FIG, GTLB all decline on results/guidance.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -24.71 points, or 0.05%, to 45,271.10
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 218.10 points, or 1.02%, to 21,497.73
• The Russell 2000 Index slipped -2.23 points, or 0.09% to 2,349.98

• 8:15 AM ET ADP Private Payrolls for August…est. 65K (prior 104K)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 230K (prior 229K)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims…est. 1.962M (prior 1.954M)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Nonfarm productivity for Q2…est. +1.2% (prior +1.6%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Unit Labor Costs for Q2…est. +2.7% (prior +2.4%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  International Trade for July…est. (-$75.7B) vs. prior (-$60.2B)
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI, Aug-final…
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, Aug-final…
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing (services) PMI for August…est. 51.0 (prior 50.1)
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 12:00 PM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AGX AMBQ AOUT AVGO BBCP BRZE CURV DOCU EGAN GWRE IOT LULU NX PATH PHR SPWH SWBI TTAN ZUMZ

• Bank America 2025 Gaming and Lodging Conference, 9/4
• Barclays 18th Annual Global Consumer Staples Conference, 9/2-9/4, in Boston, MA
• Barclays 39th Annual CEO Energy & Power Conference, 9/2-9/4, in New York
• Cantor Global Healthcare Conference, 9/3-9/5, in New York
• DA Davidson 4th Annual Big Sky Technology Summit, 9/3-9/5, in Big Sky, MT
• Deutsche Bank 15th Annual Aircraft Finance & Leasing Conference, 9/2-9/4, in New York
• Deutsche Bank European TMT Conference, 9/3-9/4, in London
• Goldman Sachs 32nd Annual Global Retailing Conference, 9/3-9/4 in New York
• Goldman Sachs European Medtech & Healthcare Services Conference, 9/3-9/4, in London
• Morgan Stanley Industrial CEOs Unplugged, 9/2-9/4

• After stunning the oil world with a slew of production increases, OPEC+ is preparing to decide its next move at a key meeting on Sunday. Saudi Arabia and its partners have yet to decide how to proceed after completing the fast-tracked addition of 2.5 million barrels a day that was finalized at its previous gathering, several delegates said – Bloomberg.
• The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was -10.7 vs -4.8 last week. Bulls fall to 32.7% from 34.6%. Neutrals fall to 23.9% from 26%, Bears rise to 43.4% from 39.4%.

• Brinker (EAT) was upgraded to Outperform from In Line at Evercore ISI and raise tgt to $210 from $190 as sees upside to consensus estimates in the near term and sustainable same-store-sales growth potential from Brinker’s improving customer satisfaction measures.
• BYD Corp. (BYDDF) slashed its sales target for this year by as much as 16% to 4.6 million vehicles, Reuters reported as the Chinese EV giant faces its slowest annual growth in five years. BYD told analysts in March it was targeting sales of 5.5 million vehicles for 2025. But internally, the number has been downgraded multiple times in recent months, according to the people.
• ChargePoint Holdings (CHPT) Q2 adj EPS ($1.42) vs est. ($1.21) on revs $98.59Mm vs est. $96.64Mm; sees Q3 revs $90-100Mm vs est. $106.69Mm.
• Dole (DOLE) announced ~11.9 mln shares offloaded by Castle & Cooke Holdings and The Murdock Group at $13.25 as the offering priced at 10% discount to stock’s last close.
• Duolingo (DUOL) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at DA Davidson and slashed its tgt to $300 from $500 saying its proprietary data shows Duolingo’s active user growth continuing to decelerate and suggests that active users and subscribers are tracking below Q3 consensus estimates.
• Tilly’s (TLYS) Q2 net sales fall -7.1% to $151.25M, missing analysts’ expectations while gross profit margin improves to 32.5% from 30.7% due to better product margins; guides Q3 net sales of $134M-$140M and sees Q3 comparable net sales to change by -2% to +2%; guides Q3 net loss of $10.5M-$7M; said decrease in SG&A expenses primarily due to reduced store payroll and related benefits.
• U.K. new-car sales fell by 2% in August, in what is usually the quietest month of the year ahead of new license plate registrations that become available in September, an industry body said. A total of 82,908 cars were registered in August compared with 84,575 in the same month last year, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders said Thursday.

• Parker-Hannifin (PH) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank.
• Parsons (PSN) Secures $81 Million C5isr Radar Contract from Army Devcom.
• Southwest Gas Holdings (SWX) announced that it will sell 27.36M existing shares of Centuri Holdings (CTRI) common stock as selling stockholder through a proposed registered public offering.
• Spire Global (SPIR) awarded $2.5M NOAA contract for satellite weather data.
• XPO, Inc. (XPO) reported certain preliminary LTL segment operating metrics for August. LTL tonnage per day decreased 4.7%, as compared with August 2024, attributable to a year-over-year decrease of 3.4% in shipments per day and a decrease of 1.3% in weight per shipment. Actual results for August may vary from the preliminary results reported above.

• Navient (NAVI) was downgraded to Underperform at Bank America with a price target of $12, down from $15 as views the “Phase 2” growth initiatives as more difficult than the “Phase 1” focus on expense reductions and capital allocation.
• Upwork (UPWK) approves additional $100M share repurchase program.

• Asana Inc. (ASAN) Q2 revenue rose 10% y/y to $196.9M vs. est. $193M; Q2 adj EPS net income $15.1M vs est. $11.9M; Q2 adjusted operating income $14M vs est. $9.34M; number of customers spending $100,000 or more on an annualized basis in Q2 grew to 770, an increase of 19% y/y.
• C3.ai Inc. (AI) shares fall; Q1 adj EPS loss (-$0.37) vs. est. loss (-$0.20); Q1 revs $70.3M vs. est. $94.6M; Q1 Subscription revenue for the quarter was $60.3M (86% of total revs); said it is withdrawing its previous full-year fiscal 2026 guidance; guides Q2 revs $72M-$80M below est. $100.7M.
• CoreWeave (CRWV) has agreed to acquire OpenPipe, a developer of reinforcement learning tech used by AI labs to train agents that improve through experience. The deal adds OpenPipe’s widely used Agent Reinforcement Trainer toolkit to CoreWeave’s AI cloud stack. Terms weren’t disclosed.
• Credo Technology (CRDO) Q1 adj EPS $0.52 vs est. $0.36 on revs $223.1Mm vs est. $190.8Mm; guides Q2 revs $230-240Mm, adj gr mgn 64-66%.
• Figma Inc. (FIG) shares tumble post results; Q2 adj op Inc $11.5Mm vs est. $10.24Mm on revs $249.6Mm vs est. $248.78Mm; guides Q3 revs $263-265Mm vs est. $256.76Mm; sees FY revs $1.021-1.025B vs est. $1.009B and adj op Inc $88-98Mm vs est. $88Mm.
• GitLab (GTLB) Q2 EPS $0.24 vs. est. $0.16; Q2 revs $236.0M vs. est. $227.2M; Q2 RPO rose 32% y/y; Q2 customers with more than $5,000 of ARR reached 10,338, an increase of 11% y/y and customers with more than $100,000 of ARR reached 1,344, an increase of 25% y/y; sees FY26 EPS $0.82-$0.83 vs. est. $0.75 and revs $936M-$942M vs. consensus $942.9M
• Hewlett Packard Enterprises (HPE) Q3 adj EPS $0.44 vs est. $0.43 on revs $9.136B vs est. $8.529B; guides Q4 revs $9.7-10.1B vs est. $9.541B and adj EPS $0.56-0.60 vs est. $0.57; sees FY revs +14-16% vs est. +11.36% and adj EPS $1.88-1.92 vs est. $1.86.
• PagerDuty (PD) Q2 adj EPS $0.30 vs est. $0.21, adj op Inc $31Mm vs est. $20.75Mm on revs $123.4Mm vs est. $123.64Mm; sees Q3 revs $124-126Mm vs est. $125.41Mm and adj EPS $0.24-0.25 vs est. $0.26; sees FY revs $493-497Mm vs est. $496.98Mm and adj EPS $1.00-1.04 vs est. $0.99.