Early Look

Friday, July 18, 2025

U.S. futures are flat, to slightly higher, looking to add to its weekly gains on this option expiration Friday after both the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq ended at record highs on Thursday. The U.S. dollar also advanced following better-than-estimated retail sales and a drop in jobless claims signaled the U.S. economy continues to remain strong. Since the April 8th low, the NASDAQ has surged 36% and the S&P 500 has climbed 26% in a straight line. The Nasdaq 100 Index closed at an all-time high after a bullish outlook from TSM lifted semiconductor stocks. In Fed news, last night the Fed’s Waller said that the Fed should cut interest rates 25 basis points at the July meeting as rising risks to economy favor easing policy rate. In trade news, EU‘s trade Chief Sefcovic has held intensive negotiations with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick and US Trade Representative Greer in Washington. Also, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba that their countries can reach a “good agreement” on tariffs, Ishiba said on Friday after meeting Bessent at his office in Tokyo. In stock news Netflix reported good results/guidance, but shares are little changed after the meteoric rise over the last few months. In energy, Chevron will proceed with its $53 billion acquisition of Hess after it prevailed in a landmark legal battle against larger rival Exxon Mobil. In Dow earnings this morning, 3M (MMM) shares rise after a beat and raise quarter. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -82 points to 39,819, the Shanghai Index rose 17 points to 3,534, and the Hang Seng Index jumped 326 points to 24,825. In Europe, the German DAX is up 7 points to 24,378, while the FTSE 100 rises 6 points to 8,978.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 229.71 points, or 0.52%, to 44,484.49
• The Nasdaq Composite jumped 153.78 points, or 0.74%, to 20,884.27
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 26.70 points, or 1.20% to 2,253.68

• 8:30 AM ET                  Building Permits M/M for June…est. 1.39M
• 10:00 AM ET                University of Michigan Confidence, July-Prelim…est. 61.5
• 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• Jerome Powell offered his first detailed defense of a $2.5 billion renovation of the Federal Reserve’s headquarters, arguing in a Thursday letter to White House budget director Russell Vought that “we take seriously the responsibility to be good stewards of public resources.”

• Topgolf Callaway (MODG) was assumed at Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley and raised its price tgt to $9.50 from $6.

• 3M (MMM) Q2 adj EPS $2.16 vs. consensus $2.10 and revs $6.3B vs. est. $6.05B; Q2 organic growth 1.5%; now expects a full-year adjusted profit between $7.75-$8 per share, compared with $7.60 to $7.90 per share expected previously; sees FY adj. total sales +2.5%, up from prior +0.5%-1.5%; sees FY adj. organic sales +2%, vs. prior view 2%-3%; says FY guidance includes impact from tariff.
• BlackSky (BKSY) announces $125M convertible senior notes offering.
• Chevron (CVX) prevails in mediation over Exxon (XOM) in Guyana oil assets; Chevron mediation victory clears path for Hess (HES) acquisition – CNBC reports.
• Sable Offshore (SOC) shares jumped late Thursday after a California court has partially granted preliminary injunctions in cases 25CV02244 and 25CV02247, temporarily blocking the restart of the Las Flores Pipelines by Sable Offshore and Pacific Pipeline Co. until 10 court days after formal notice is filed and served stating all necessary permits have been obtained.
• Talen Energy (TLN) shares jump after saying it would acquire Caithness Energy’s Moxie Freedom Energy Center in Pennsylvania and Caithness and BlackRock’s Guernsey Power Station in Ohio for $3.5B.

• Bank OZK (OZK) Q2 EPS $1.58 vs est. $1.53
• Canaan’s (CAN) U.S. subsidiary has entered into a purchase agreement with Cipher Mining (CIFR) to supply approximately 6,840 Avalon A15Pro miners to Cipher’s Black Pearl facility in Q3
• Cohens & Steers (CNS) Q2 adj EPS $0.73 vs est. $0.76 on revs $136.126Mm vs est. $136.39Mm, adj operating margin 33.6%.
• FNB Corp. (FNB) Q2 EPS $0.36 vs est. $0.34 on NII $347.196Mm vs est. $335.22Mm, CET1 capital ratio 10.8%, credit loss provision $25.601Mm.
• Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Q2 adj EPS $0.51 vs est. $0.45; Q2 revs $1.48B vs. est. $1.37B; Q2Commission revenue increased 27% to 516 million on higher customer trading volumes; Q2 customer trading volume in stocks, options and futures increased 31%, 24% and 18%, respectively; Q2 Net interest income increased 9% to $860M and other fees and services decreased 9% to $62M.
• Independent Bank (INDB) Q2 adj EPS of $1.25 above ests $1.21; Q2 net income rises to $51.1 mln, driven by higher revenues and lower loan loss provision; announces $150 mln stock repurchase plan; did not provide specific guidance; Q2 net interest margin 3.37%.
• Metropolitan Bank Holding (MCB) Q2 adj EPS $1.76 vs. est. $1.73; Q2 NIM was 3.83%, an increase of 15bps q/q and up 39bps y/y; Q2 Total loans were $6.6B, an increase of $270.7M, or 4.3% q/q; Total deposits at June 30, 2025 were $6.8B, an increase of $342.0M, or 5.3% q/q.
• Simmons First National (SFNC) Q2 adj EPS $0.44 vs. est. $0.39; Q2 adj net income $56.1M vs. est. $49.4M; Q2 revenue $214.2M vs. est. $217.1M; Q2 CET1 capital ratio 12.4%; Q2 Net interest margin up 11 basis points to 3.06 percent; the 5th consecutive quarterly increase in net interest margin.
• Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL) Q2 EPS $2.07 vs. est. $2.03; Q2 net interest margin 3.53%, Q2 credit loss provision $-39.9M, Q2 net interest income $697.6M, Q2 Net Income $237.8M.

• In Managed care, the WSJ reported Obamacare insurers seek double-digit premium hikes next year; some enrollees could be hit with increases of more than 20% because of federal changes and higher health expenses. Insurers are seeing large 2026 rate increases for Affordable Care Act marketplace plans with Blue Cross & Blue Shield of Illinois wanting a 27% hike and Blue Cross plan in Texas asking for a 21% increase.
• Prescription drug denials by private insurers in the U.S. rose from 18.3% to 22.9% from 2016 to 2023, with rejections up across many health plans, the New York Times reports.

• Jabil Inc. (JBL) announces $1B share repurchase authorization.