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What Will Powell Say?
www.oneoption.com
All eyes will be on the Fed Chairman’s speech this morning in Jackson Hole.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – The news cycle has been light and the market is searching for anything it can sink it’s teeth into. The price action has been compressed and this is the biggest potential catalyst the rest of the month.
Fed officials are concerned about job losses and inflation. The last jobs report was particularly weak and the downward revisions to the prior two months were dramatic. Last week’s PPI was very hot at .9%. They will be trying to walk a tight rope and the market is expecting a rate cut in September.
Most Fed officials do not favor a September rate cut, but Powell has been under extreme pressure from Trump. Central banks around the world have been cutting rates for the last year and economic growth has been poor.
I believe there are two possible scenarios. One is that they are leaning towards a rate cut in September. The market should be OK with this outcome. The other is a completely hedged statement where they will wait for more data. I don’t believe the market will like this outcome.
Is one bad jobs report and one bad inflation number a concern? Probably not, but the market is searching for any potential driver.
SPY $632.95 is the low for the week. If we take that out with ease we could test the 50-day MA. If the reaction is positive we will be within striking distance of the all-time high. We don’t know which outcome we will get. Have your longs and shorts ready and let’s see if we get some movement.
Content is provided by OneOption, LLC, which has no affiliation with Regal Securities, Inc. (“Regal”) This commentary is provided for information purposes only, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation by Regal to buy or sell securities or to adopt any investment strategy. Regal has not participated in the creation of the OneOption content and does not directly or indirectly endorse the content. Any reliance on this material is at the sole discretion of the reader.