Early Look

Friday, August 22, 2025

After sliding for 5-straight days, S&P futures (Spuz) are looking modestly higher to end the week as investors hold back on any big bets ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech at 10am ET. The S&P has been dragged down by technology stocks this week, led by large caps and momentum stocks primarily as the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) fell for a 6^th straight day on Thursday, its longest losing streak dating back to October 2022! Treasury yield traded higher on Thursday on mixed economic data, as jobless claims jumped while S&P PMI data beat across the board. The dollar tracked yields higher, with the greenback gaining the most against the yen and Swiss franc and is extending those gains this morning. Crude oil gained more than 1% in back-to-back strong sessions for energy. Gold and Bitcoin prices were weaker on the day but looking mixed this morning. Traders bought into volatility ahead of Friday’s Jackson Hole Symposium, with the VIX jumping over 6% but is flattish now around 16.56. A lot has changed since the last Jackson Hole meeting a year ago as Bloomberg’s Lisa Abramowicz noted last night on “X”, “since the last Jackson Hole meeting, annualized CPI has risen to 2.7% from 2.4%. Core PCE has crept higher to 2.79% from 2.73%. In that time, the S&P is up 13%, 10-year Treasury yields are up about 50bps while 2-year yields are lower by 10bp. The jobless rate has stayed at 4.2%.” The U.S. dollar ends Thursday at the high of the week heading into Jackson Hole today. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index gained 23 points to 42,633, the Shanghai Index surged 54 points to 3,825, and the Hang Seng Index jumped 234 points to 25,339. In Europe, the German DAX is up 29 points to 24,323, while the FTSE 100 is up a few points to 9,314. Lots of news in the tech space overnight with a $10B deal between GOOGL and META and NVDA comments on its H20 AI chip (see below).

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -152.81 points, or 0.34%, to 44,785.50
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -72.55 points, or 0.34%, to 21,100.31
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 4.72 points, or 0.21% to 2,274.07

• Russell Quarterly Index Rebalance Preliminary Announcement, 8/22

• Gap shares (GAP) downgraded to equal weight from overweight at Barclay’s saying the previous bullish scenario for double-digit operating margins by FY26 is off the table.
• Lucid group, Inc. (LCID) announces effective date of reverse stock split of 1 for 10 on August 29^th.
• Nike (NKE) plans to unveil a version of its Ultrafly trail running shoe – branded under its outdoor sub-brand, ACG – at the Ultra-Trail du Mont-Blanc, an ultramarathon in France that begins on Monday.
• Ross Stores (ROST) Q2 EPS $1.56 vs. est. $1.54 and revs rose 5% y/y to $5.53B vs. est. $5.54B, with comparable store sales up 2% versus last year; sees FY25 EPS $6.08-$6.21, vs. consensus $6.20; said for both Q3 and Q4, planning comparable store sales growth of up 2% to 3%.

• Canadian oil producer MEG Energy (MEGEF) said it agreed to be acquired by larger peer Cenovus Energy (CVE) in a cash-and-stock deal worth C$6.93 billion, to create one of the largest oil sands companies in Canada. Under the transaction, each shareholder of MEG Energy will receive C$27.25 in cash, or 1.325 common shares of Cenovus Energy. In May, Canadian oil and gas producer Strathcona said it planned to launch a C$5.93 billion hostile takeover bid for MEG.
• JB Hunt (JBHT), Knight Transport (KNX), CH Robinsons (CHRW), Old Dominion (ODFL) shares may be active in trucking and logistics sector after Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that US will halt issuance of worker visas for commercial truck drivers. Trump in April signed an executive order directing enforcement of a rule requiring commercial drivers in the U.S. to meet English-proficiency standards.

• LPL Financial (LPLA) released its monthly activity report for July. Total advisory and brokerage assets at the end of July were $1.94T, an increase of $20.2B, or 1.1%, compared to the end of June. Total organic net new assets for July were $5.4B, translating to a 3.4% annualized growth rate.
• MeridianLink (MLNK) and Jack Henry (JKHY) expand strategic reseller relationship to include MeridianLink one platform solutions for community banks and credit unions; builds on successful 15-year relationship.
• U.S. banks are petitioning the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to seek national standards for providing banking services that would override state-imposed rules, three sources familiar with the matter said. Large banks, in particular, are lobbying for uniform U.S. regulations outlining how they can make loans, issue bonds or provide investment banking services, or assess anti-money laundering risks while curbing state powers over their operations – Reuters.

• Nvidia (NVDA) has instructed component suppliers such as Foxconn to stop production related to the H20 AI chip, The Information reported. The move is said to follow urging from Beijing that local companies avoid using the chip, designed specifically for the Chinese market.
• Roblox (RBLX) was upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research with a $150 price target saying the company is positioned to benefit from platform flywheel effects, including search improvements and pricing optimizations.
• Workday (WDAY) Q2 adj EPS $2.21 topped the $2.11 consensus; Q2 revs rose 12.6% y/y to $2.34B in-line with consensus; Ad adj operating income $680M vs. est. $657.1M; Q2 subscription revenue $2.169B, up 14% y/y while raises FY26 subscription revenue view to $8.82B, up from $8B prior; Q2 12-month subscription revenue backlog was $7.91B, up 16.4% y/y.
• Zoom Communications (ZM) Q2 EPS $1.53 vs. est. $1.37 and revs $1,217B vs. est. $1.198B; Q2 operating margin 26.4% and adj operating margin 41.3%; Number of customers contributing more than $100,000 in trailing 12 months revenue up 8.7% y/y; sees year EPS $5.81-$5.84 from prior $5.56-$5.59) vs. est. $5.58 and raises year revs to $4.825B-$4.835B from prior $4.81B-$4.28B and vs. est. $4.81B.