Closing Recap

Friday, August 29, 2025

Index	Up/Down	%	Last
DJ Industrials	-92.02	0.20%	45,544
S&P 500	-41.60	0.64%	6,460
Nasdaq	-249.61	1.15%	21,455
Russell 2000	-15.38	0.65%	2,362

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. stocks were off overnight following a disappointing report and guide from MRVL which re-ignited data center concerns. Buy the dip? Today’s inflation data did little to provide motivation to investors either way, coming in in-line across the board, while the implied probability of a September Fed cut remained at about 84%, same as it was ahead of the data. That said, investors used the last Friday of Summer to do some selling and get ahead of September’s historical woes. By mid-morning, stocks had continued to fade with breadth favoring decliners by almost 2:1 as small caps outperformed in the broad decline with IWM (-0.59%) versus SPY (-0.75%) and QQQ (-1.21%). The mega-caps were driving indices while sector performance was more balanced. Consumer Staples (+0.40%), Energy (+0.17%) and Real Estate (+0.17%) were outperformers among S&P sector ETFs, while Consumer Discretionary (-0.84%), Industrials (-1.10%) and Technology (-1.54%) led the underperformers with six sectors gaining versus five declining. In sentiment, contrary to today’s market action, the Fear & Greed Index stood at 64/100 (Greed) versus 61/100 (Greed) last week and 70/100 (Greed) last month.

 

In data of interest to end the month, @bespokeinvest notes that while stocks are lower today the S&P 500 has rallied over 2% since last Thursday and notched its 20^th record closing high of the year. Of course, that just sets up another of his posts noting over the past ten years, the S&P 500 has registered a median decline of 1.95$ over the next month. September is upon us. Meanwhile, @KobeissiLetter is doing some head scratching, noting the US M2 money supply rose 4.8% yr/yr in July to a record $22.12T, making it the 21^st consecutive monthly increase while core PCE of 2.9% is now at its highest since February 2025…yet rate cuts are still coming. Lastly, totally unrelated, @Malone_Wealth noted out of the top 200 insider trades over the past week (by value), none was a buy order. Interesting.

 

Heading into the final hour of trading for the month, stocks were down but off the lows. That said, we are looking at the first rise for the month of August under a second term president ever (average coming into this August was -3.4%). Previously the S&P went 0-for-6. Now, about September, that historically also is not so great for investors, but you never know. All eyes will be on the Fed, again.

 

 

• Personal Spending M/M for July +0.5% in-line estimate +0.5% (prior +0.1%)
• PCE Price Index M/M for July +0.2 in-line with estimate +0.2% (prior +0.3%)
• PCE Price Index Y/Y for July +2.6% in-line with estimate +2.6% (same as prior)
• Core PCE Price Index M/M for July +0.3% in-line with estimate +0.3% (same as prior)
• Core PCE Price Index Y/Y for July +2.9% in-line with estimate +2.9% (vs. prior +2.8%)
• Advance goods Trade Balance -$103.6B versus estimate (-$89.45B)
• Chicago PMI for August 41.5 versus estimate 46.0 (prior 47.1)
• University of Michigan Confidence, Aug-Final 58.2 versus estimate 58.6
• University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations 4.8% and 3.5%, respectively

• WTI crude futures slipped modestly overnight, stabilized a bit post-PCE, then continued lower into the afternoon with no meaningful rally attempt. EIA headlines indicating US crude oil production hit record highs in June probably didn’t help. October futures settled -$0.59/bbl, or -0.91%, at $64.01. Brent similarly slipped by $0.50/bbl, or -0.73%, to $68.12.

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
WTI Crude	-0.59	64.01
Brent	-0.50	68.12
Gold	41.80	3,516.10
EUR/USD	0.0021	1.17
JPY/USD	0.0079	146.95
10-Year Note	0.02	4.227%

 

Sector News Breakdown

 

• Gov. Newsom, California lawmakers strike deal that would allow Uber (UBER) Lyft (LYFT) drivers to unionize
• Tesla (TSLA) asks court to throw out $243 million verdict in fatal Autopilot crash case.
• BYD Co. (BYDDY) reported a surprise drop in quarterly profit due to fierce price competition in its home market. Net income slumped 30% to 6.36 billion yuan in the second quarter, missing analysts’ estimates of a modest increase. Shares were lower by 6% in late PM trading.

 

Retail, Consumer Staples & Restaurants:

• Shares of Celsius (CELH) rose over 4% following pre-market news that PepsiCo (PEP) boosted its stake in Celsius with $585M deal to 11%.
• Democratic lawmakers file bill to federally legalize marijuana as Trump weighs rescheduling. (MSOS)
• "9 GOP lawmakers urge Trump and attorney general to reject ‘corrupt and flawed’ marijuana rescheduling proposal: "Marijuana belongs as a Schedule I drug."" (MSOS) per Marijuana Moment.
• Crocs, Inc. (CROX) appointed EVP and CO Patraic Reagan, who suddenly resigned from SharkNinja (SN) yesterday; reaffirms third quarter guidance leading to share price gains today.
• Connexa Sports Technologies (YYAI) shares lost 1/3 of their value after announcing jv company to issue 51% of its share capital to Co, 49% to Jucoin – SEC filing.
• The Home Depot (HD) Announces Receipt of Clearance from the Canadian Competition Bureau for Acquisition of GMS Inc.
• TrueCar Inc. (TRUE) terminated Chief Revenue Officer Jay Ku without cause, effective September 1, 2025, the company announced August 28.
• Post Holdings (POST) is strategically divesting its pasta segment, 8th Avenue Food & Provisions, to Richardson Holdings (private) for $375M. This calculated move allows Post to sharpen its focus on its core offerings, namely nut butters, fruit, and granola. The company anticipates generating $45-50M in adj EBITDA for fiscal 2026, excluding any potential cost synergies.
• Kraft Heinz (KHC) is closing in on a plan to break itself up, possibly as soon as next week, according to people familiar with the matter per WSJ.
• More shrimp recalled from Kroger (KR) and Walmart (WMT) for radioactive exposure. Three seafood companies have recalled frozen shrimp products processed by Indonesian company BMS Foods. WSJ

Leisure, Gaming & Lodging:

• Viking (VIK) today announced the delivery of its newest river ship, the Viking Gyda, which will sail exclusively on Portugal’s Douro River.

 

Energy

• Russian gas supplies to China up 28.3% in January thru August – per Gazprom
• China is considering boosting Russian gas imports via existing power of Siberia pipeline 1 by 6 BCM a year, sources note per Reuters.
• Trump administration cancelling $679M in federal funding for offshore wind projects – USDOT (NEE, GEV, VWDRY, BEP)

 

Financials

Banks, Brokers, Asset Managers:

•  British bank shares slide on fears of new tax on lenders proposed by a UK think-tank. (NWG, BCS, LYG)
• Senate Democrats warn Trump IPO plan for Fannie Mae (FNMA), and Freddie Mac (FMCC) could push up mortgage rates.
• State Street (STT) to provide range of investment services for Columbia Threadneedle (private) for $431B in assets.

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin, FinTech, Payments:

• PE firm Permira is exploring a potential acquisition of JTC , the London-listed provider of fund solutions and corporate services.
• IREN Ltd (IREN) shares jumped by 15%+ after y’day’s Q4 report, & Nvidia preferred status news. PTs were raised significantly by several analysts.
• PayPal (PYPL) said on Friday that it was working to resolve any remaining issues following a widespread disruption that had halted user payments in Germany, raising alarm over the reliability of the app for online transactions per Reuters.
• Affirm (AFRM) shares were higher by 10% in PM trading after the company reported strong quarterly results and guided FY26 gross merchandise volume above estimates.

 

Healthcare

Biotech & Pharma:

• Court rules for Neogenomics (NEO) in patent infringement lawsuit against Natera (NTRA)
  Neogenomics: court rules Natera’s patents are invalid for claiming ineligible subject matter. Neogenomics’ shares rose 20%+, while Natera shares were slightly lower in early PM trading.
• Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) unveils positive real-world outcomes of Camzyos at ESC Congress 2025, confirming its effectiveness and safety for obstructive HCM patients.
• Edwards Lifesciences (EW) Updated ESC/EACTS Guidelines Mark Advancement in Structural Heart Disease Care.
• CDC warns of huge COVID spikes amid internal turmoil per Axios. (PFE, MRNA, NVAX, BNTX)

 

Healthcare Services & MedTech movers:

• iRhythm Technologies (IRTC) revealed new insights from the AMALFI clinical trial, overseen by Oxford University. The findings highlight the effectiveness of home-based screening using the Zio long-term continuous monitoring (LTCM) service. The trial demonstrated an increased detection rate and expedited diagnosis of atrial fibrillation (AFib).
• Blade Air Mobility Inc. has changed its name to Strata Critical Medical Inc. (SRTA). The company announced this rebranding as part of its focus on the medical services and logistics sector.

 

 

Industrials & Materials

Transports

• Fitch changes Ryanair’s (RYAAY) outlook to positive and confirms credit rating at ‘BBB+’.
• Allegiant (ALGT) reports July 2025 traffic: scheduled service passengers +10.3% in July 2025, July load factor 86.6% & revenue passenger miles +10.3%.
• Southwest Airlines (LUV) began flying first plane with secondary cockpit barrier on Friday.

 

Aerospace & Defense

• Joby Aviation Inc. (JOBY) announced it has completed the acquisition of Blade Air Mobility’s passenger business, according to a company statement.

 

Materials, Metals & Mining

• DuPont (DD) announces agreement to divest Aramids business to private company Arclin for $1.8B.
• Uranium miners were higher pre-market and fell as a group upon the opening of regular trading. Last night Cameco (CCJ) said they would cut its McArthur River/Key Lake production forecast to 14-15M lb. of U3O8. ($UEC $UUUU $NXE $DNN)
• Shares of Eastman Chemical (EMN) rose after 9 Insiders bought shares; the 1st insider purchases in at least 5 years.
• Cameco (CCJ) and Orano (private) sign historic 15-year agreement with indigenous-owned Climb Air worth ~$1500M.
• Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) to cease operations at Bushnell, Illinois plant & streamline of soy protein production network

 

Technology

Internet, Media & Telecom

• Executives from Kyivstar Group (KYIV) rang the Nasdaq opening bell Friday, capping off a busy few days of trans-Atlantic flights, presentations, and investor meetings for Ukraine’s largest mobile and broadband operator. Barron’s
• Applied Digital (APLD) finalizes additional 150MW lease with CoreWeave (CRWV) in North Dakota
• Verizon (VZ) filed for mixed shelf; size not disclosed this morning per a SEC filing.
• Dating App Bumble (BMBL) is working on a new AI-powered matchmaking app, beta version of the app could be released to select users in the fall per WSJ.
• Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Google set to face modest EU antitrust fine over AdTech practices, sources note per Reuters.

 

Hardware & Software movers:

• Musk’s xAI sued an engineer for allegedly taking secrets to OpenAI.

 

Semiconductors:

• Shares of Alibaba (BABA) continued to extend gains, reaching +13% in the early afternoon, now back at pre-“Liberation Day” levels due to overnight earnings strength in AI & cloud computing as well as a WSJ article stating that they have created an AI to rival Nvidia (NVDA) chips.
• U.S. to revoke authorizations for Intel (INTC), SK Hynix and Samsung (SSNLF) to receive American chipmaking equipment in China unless they obtain licenses per Federal Register.
• DeepSeek, one of China’s leading artificial intelligence developers, has decided to use Huawei Technologies’ AI chips to train some of its AI models, a sign it is reducing its reliance on Nvidia (NVDA) chips, according to three people with knowledge of the effort per The Information.
• Shares of Super Micro Computer (SMCI) were lower due to several phrases such as this in Form 10-K filed with the SEC yesterday: “While we filed all of the Delinquent Reports within the extension period granted by Nasdaq, we expect to continue to face many of the risks and challenges related to previously being delinquent in our SEC reporting obligations, including the following:…”
• Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) remained lower all day, as investors wrestled with the negative Alibaba (BABA) and Huawei stories amid the continued fallout from a mixed earnings report on Wednesday afternoon.