Closing Recap

Thursday, August 28, 2025

Index	Up/Down	%	Last
DJ Industrials	71.67	0.16%	45,637
S&P 500	20.46	0.32%	6,501
Nasdaq	115.02	0.53%	21,705
Russell 2000	2.77	0.12%	2,376

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. stocks were flattish overnight following big NVDA numbers against big NVDA expectations. Some disappointment in data center sales were generally neutralized by solid guidance and a bullish tone. Now the market returns to its Fed-centric focus with almost an 89% implied probability of a September rate cut ahead of today’s economic data. Equities remained flattish (down slightly) following the GDP and jobless claims data but crossed to green temporarily following new NVDA headlines indicating the company was in talks with the US to sell Blackwell AI chips to China and may be willing to give the US a cut of the sales. The implied probability of a September Fed cut dipped slightly to about 84%. 

 

In sentiment, today’s AAII bull-bear spread came in at -4.8 versus last week’s -14 with bulls rising from 30.8% to 34.6% and bears falling from 44.8% to 39.4% while the Fear and Greed Index rose to 66/100 (Greed) from 55 (Neutral) last week but down from 73 (Greed) last month. After absorbing the Q2 GDP strength, markets grew a little more nervous about prospects for a September Fed cut and equities faded into mid-morning. Breadth held about neutral at 1:1 with a slight tilt toward advancers as small caps were mixed with IWM (-0.08%) versus SPY (-0.10%) and QQQ (+0.10%). In sectors, Financials (+0.16%), Technology (+0.09%) and Communications (+0.05%) were outperformers while Real Estate (-0.43%), Consumer Staples (-0.68%) and Health Care (-0.71%) paced the underperformers with four sectors gaining versus seven declining.

 

In data of interest today, a note of context on NVDA per @bespokeinvest, NVIDIA‘s $4.4 trillion market cap is the same as 6 Walmart’s, 11 Costco’s, 21 Disney’s, 38 Nike’s, 78 Chipotle’s, 94 Ford’s, 102 Target’s, 244 Dick’s, 984 Shake Shack’s, 2,090 Under Armour’s, or 3,451 Cracker Barrel’s. In case anyone still wondered whether NVDA results were actually important. On earnings overall, as earnings season winds down, the metrics remain quite similar to last year’s Q2 with 83% of companies beating estimates versus 82% last year but with slightly better year/year average earnings growth of 14% versus last year’s 11%. Unsurprisingly, sector growth does vary significantly with average growth in excess of 20% in Communications Services, Energy, Financials and Technology versus Materials, Real Estate, Utilities and Consumer Staples all at year/year growth of 5% or less. Lastly, on short interest per @schaeffers, S&P 500 short interest has been climbing along with the index. Total short interest in S&P 500 stocks is up 30.2% year-to-date generating a conclusion that stocks and shorts rising together is more likely hedging than outright bearish bets.

 

Heading into the final hour of trading, stocks had rallied with all major indices in the green. Breadth improved to favor advancers by 4:3 as small caps underperformed the broad rally with IWM (+0.11%) versus SPY (+0.37%) and QQQ (+0.72%). Sector performance remained fairly even in terms of gainers/decliners with Technology (+0.91%), Energy (+0.64%) and Communications (+0.32%) outperforming among S&P sector ETFs, while Consumer Staples (-0.51%), Real Estate (-0.55%) and Health Care (-0.60%) led the underperformers lower with six sectors gaining versus five declining.

 

• GDP Consumer Spending for Q2, preliminary +1.6% versus prior +1.4%
• GDP Price Deflator for Q2, preliminary +2.0% inline with estimate +2.0%
• PCE Prices, Prelim for Q2 +2.0% versus estimate +2.0% and prior +2.1%
• Core PCE Prices, Prelim for Q2 +2.5% versus estimate +2.6%
• Weekly Jobless Claims 229K versus estimate 230K (prior 235K)
• Continuing Claims 1.954M versus estimate 1.97M (prior 1.972M)
• Pending Home Sales M/M for July -0.4% versus estimate -0.24% and the Index was 71.7 versus 72.0 in June
• Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for August 0 versus prior -3

• WTI crude futures slipped slightly overnight then continued modestly lower through the trading day before a late rally pushed it to green. With “driving season” coming to an end, some demand concern may have pressured prices initially but was offset by stronger GDP data this morning. October futures settled +$0.45/bbl, or +0.70% at $64.60.

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
WTI Crude	0.45	64.60
Brent	0.57	68.52
Gold	25.70	3,474.30
EUR/USD	0.0046	1.17
JPY/USD	-0.411	146.93
10-Year Note	-0.031	4.207%

 

Sector News Breakdown

 

• Ford Motor (F) is recalling 100,900 U.S. vehicles per NHTSA due to some U.S. vehicles as air bags that deploy improperly during a crash increase the risk of injury.
• Ferrari (RACE) saw its shares rise after Europe reported its best car sales since July 2024.
• Scisparc (SPRC) shareholders approve merger with Israel’s AutoMax Motors, expanding into automotive sector.
• Tesla (TSLA) Stock Could Be Headed for a Breakout Despite Weak Europe Sales per Barron’s.

 

• Best Buy (BBY) shares fell ~4% despite an EPS and sales double beat, affirmed forward guidance.
• Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) surrendered gains as high as +9% to turn negative midday despite a double beat in EPS and sales possibly due to mixed forward guidance.
• Shares of Malibu Boats (MBUU) fell over 15% after posting a Q4 profit miss.
• Build-A-Bear (BBW) shares were sharply higher after a double beat including double-digit gains as company boosted its FY25 targets.
• Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI) saw its shares move higher early after strong same-store sales reported with earnings, they faded into negative territory by midday, however.
• Uber (UBER) and Dollar Tree (DLTR) partners to bring 9,000 stores to Uber Eats.
• Dollar General (DG) CEO notes on conf call tariffs have already resulted in some price increases.
• Diageo (DEO) will cease operations at its bottling facility in Amherstburg, Ontario by February 2026.
• Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) and Disney (DIS) advertising join forces to redefine the playbook for connected consumer experiences.
• Nike (NKE) to lay off about 1% of corporate staff in its latest effort to refocus business.

 

 

•  Mastercard (MA) and infosys (INFY) collaborate to scale cross-border payments.

 

•  Kyverna Therapeutics (KYTX) highlights neuroimmunology CAR T franchise and registrational phase 3 trial design in myasthenia gravis at virtual KOL event.
• Natera’s (NTRA) Signatera™ test selected for NRG-sponsored phase III Archer trial in bladder cancer.
• Teva (TEVA) announces (TEVA) FDA approval and launch of generic saxenda® (liraglutide injection) – first generic glp-1 indicated for weight loss.
• Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) secures R&D 100 awards for innovations accelerating the Discovery and development of therapies.
• RFK Jr. Will testify before Senate panel next week per Politico.
• FDA recommends additional, earlier MRI monitoring for patients with Alzheimer’s disease taking Biogen’s (BIIB) leqembi (lecanemab).
• U.S. Department of Defense is expanding the list of drugs that military service members will be tested for to include the psychedelic compound psilocin, one of the two main constituents in psilocybin mushrooms." (MNMD)
• Telix (TLX) shares fall after FDA requests more data for cancer treatment.

• The cost of Eli Lilly’s (LLY) weight-loss drug mounjaro to be discounted in UK pharmacies when price hike comes into force- Sky News.
• U.S. DOJ notes Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB) to pay up to $40M to resolve criminal charge related to the sale of adulterated Microcool surgical gowns.
• Senators demand information from UnitedHealth (UNH) on loan-collection practices, UnitedHealth lent more than $9b to providers after ransomware attack crippled change healthcare unit.

 

• Oceaneering (OII) announced $180M of subsea robotics contracts with Petrobras
• Enphase Energy (ENPH) announced availability of software to expand iq7 solar systems with iq8 microinverters in more global markets.
• Trump Fires Board Member of Regulator Weighing Rail Merger; Robert Primus, a member of the Surface Transportation Board, says he will challenge the termination. (UNP, CSX, UNP)
•  FAA issues groundstop at Newark Airport over equipment issue (UAL).

 

• Poland selects L3harris (LHX) electronic warfare system for F-16 fleet.
• Lockheed Martin (LMT) hit with investor class action amid $3.3b losses and intensifying securities fraud investigation before deadline.
• ZenaTech’s (ZENA) Spider Vision Sensors Expands Drone Component Manufacturing Capabilities Enabling Compliant Global Supply Chain for US Defense Customers
• Kawasaki Heavy Industries (KWHIY) suspected of submarine engine fraud for Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force.

 

• Nippon Steel (NPSCY) looks to invest $4B in a new electric arc furnace steel mill for U.S. steel slated to start up as soon as 2029.

 

 

• NBCUniversal (CMCSA) & Amazon (AMZN) reach deal to bring Peacock to Prime Video channels.
• Meta (META) CEO Mark Zuckerberg visited Trump late last week and discussed the threat of digital service taxes.
• Microsoft’s (MSFT) Xbox to roll out cross-device play history soon

 

 

• Pure Storage (PSTG) shares are traded almost 30% higher after the company reported better-than-expected Q2 financial results, issued Q3 sales guidance above estimates, and raised its FY26 sales guidance above estimates.
• Snowflake (SNOW) shares surged over 20% on strong earnings and a raised outlook.
• Informatica (INFA) is granted HSR early termination for Salesforce (CRM) deal.

 

• Speaking at DB Conference, Intel (INTC) CFO notes they have received the $5.7B in unpaid grants from the chips act that is being converted to US government’s stake.
• Trump-Intel (INTC) deal designed to block sale of chipmaking unit per FT citing Intel CFO.