Closing Recap

Thursday, September 04, 2025

U.S. stocks stayed strong, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq extending prior day gains into key economic data tomorrow, closing at the highs and pushing the S&P 500 (SPX) above 6,500 in the final minutes as Wall Street is broadly expecting the August payroll data to lead to lower interest rate cuts next week in coming months. No fear at all from investors after a little selling pressure last Friday and this Monday, back in cruise control higher led by several sectors, but tech still leading the charge. Today there was a changing of the guard, as shares of META and AMZN outperformed in the Mag 7 names (on no particular news), helping rally the S&P 500 and Nasdaq just a day after surges in shares of GOOGL and AAPL boosted major averages on Wednesday, as market concentration remains strong in the top tech players (which carry the greatest weigh in the S&P and Nasdaq). HDD stocks WDC, STX both hitting all-time highs and rising for the 9th time in 10 days as the memory sector remains strong. Semis in focus tonight with another big AI player, AVGO, reporting earnings (closed up for the 8th time in last 9 days into earnings and about 8 points from all-time highs).

The CBOE Volatility index (VIX) sunk over 5% to 15.50 after highs above the 19 level just 2 days ago. Rising global Treasury yields fears have subsided, with US yields tumbling the last 48 hours while gold prices pull back for the first time in 7 days, off all-time highs on some profit taking. Crypto prices declined with Bitcoin and Ethereum sliding, taking the crypto complex lower. Tariff concerns, yield concerns, stock market valuation concerns, all overshadowed by broader stock market optimism heading into tomorrow’s payrolls. Speaking off, economists are looking for 75K jobs added in August (roughly same as last month) and private payrolls also to rise 75K (vs. 83K prior), the unemployment rate to rise to 4.3% from 4.2% and wages to rise +0.3% m/m (in-line with prior month) and rise 3.7% y/y (below the 3.9% level last month).

Sentiment data this week: 1) This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index fell to 81.58 from last week’s 92.94 – its second straight weekly decline after hitting its highest reading since the 99.30 on 7/2 – 2025 trough from 4-16 of 35.16 – Last Quarter Average (Q2) of 73.28; 2) The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was -10.7 vs -4.8 last week. Bulls fall to 32.7% from 34.6%, Neutrals fall to 23.9% from 26%, and Bears rise to 43.4% from 39.4%.

• ADP Private payrolls added 54K jobs in August, slightly below the 65K forecast, while the prior month was revised to 106K from 104K. (all eyes remain on tomorrow’s non-farm payroll report).
• Weekly Jobless Claims climbed to 237K from 229K prior and vs. consensus 230K; the 4-week moving average climbed to 231K from 228,500 prior week; continued claims fell to 1.940M from 1.944M prior week and the US insured unemployment rate unchanged at 1.3%.
• U.S. Q2 non-farm productivity revised to +3.3%, best since Q423 and above consensus +2.7%, vs. prior +2.4% while Q2 non-farm unit labor costs revised to +1.0% (consensus +1.2%), and vs. prior +1.6%
• U.S. S&P Global August final composite PMI at 54.6 and August final services PMI at 54.5.
• ISM report on U.S. non-manufacturing sector shows PMI 52.0 in August above consensus at 51.0 and topping the 50.1 in July; business activity index 55.0 in August vs 52.6 in July; prices paid index 69.2 in August vs 69.9 in July; new orders index 56.0 in August vs 50.3 in July; and lastly, ISM non-manufacturing employment index 46.5 in August vs 46.4 in July.
• The U.S. trade deficit widened by less than expected to -$78.3B in July, after upward revisions back through January that were larger for exports than imports, leaving smaller deficits. Analysts saw a -$59.1B (was -$60.2) gap in June that marked the narrowest deficit since March of 2023. Analysts saw an all-time wide gap of -$136.4 (was -$138.3B) in March. Exports in July beat estimates by $3.0B, while imports beat estimates by $1.3B. Analysts expect 2025 gains for U.S. trade in goods/services of 4.4% for exports & 5.6% for imports.

• Brent Crude futures settle at $66.99/bbl, down 61 cents, or 0.9% while WTI crude slips -$0.40 or 0.77% to settle at $63.48 a barrel extending losses a day after reports that OPEC+ is considering another supply boost for October at this weekend’s meeting. U.S. natural gas futures edged higher for a 7^th straight day.
• Treasury yields in sell-off mode the last 2 days after edging higher the last few weeks, ahead of tomorrow’s non-farm payroll report which is expected to deepen expectations of a Fed rate cut in 2 weeks and possibly more going forward. The 10-year yield fell -4.4bpst p 4.166%, while the 30-yr slipped -3ps to 4.86%, off the 5% level just a few days ago; the 2-yr yield -2.2bps below 3.6%

• In Apparel Retail: AEO shares surge, helped by its viral Sydney Sweeney ad campaign as Q2 EPS $0.45 tops est. $0.21 on revs $1.284B vs est. $1.237B, comps -1%, qtr-end inventory +8% (units +3%); guides Q3 comps +low-single, gross margin down y/y; said that customer counts were up more than 700,000 since the launch of the campaigns with Sweeney and Kelce, and the ads have generated 40 billion impressions. GAP said it was expanding its Old Navy stores into cosmetics starting next year.
• In Food & Restaurants: EAT was upgraded to Outperform from In Line at Evercore ISI and raise tgt to $210 from $190 as sees upside to consensus estimates in the near term and sustainable same-store-sales growth potential from Brinker’s improving customer satisfaction measures. DOLE shares were pressured after announced ~11.9 mln shares offloaded by Castle & Cooke Holdings and The Murdock Group at $13.25 as the offering priced at 10% discount to stock’s last close.

• In Autos: BYDDF slashed its sales target for this year by as much as 16% to 4.6 million vehicles, Reuters reported as the Chinese EV giant faces its slowest annual growth in five years. GM is scaling back production at its Spring Hill, Tennessee EV plant, citing slower demand and reduced federal support under the Trump administration. CHPT Q2 results were a bit below expectations despite stronger revenue on lower subscription mix and higher opex, though cash was only a modest outflow.

• In Solar: Reuters reported India’s decision to cut taxes on solar and wind equipment will lower costs for new plants and pressure existing project developers to reduce tariffs, accelerating the country’s shift to renewable energy, industry experts said. The government slashed the goods and services tax on solar photovoltaic modules and wind turbine generators to 5% from 12%, part of broader tax cuts on hundreds of consumer items.

• In Crypto: Nasdaq is stepping up its scrutiny of companies listed on its exchange that are aiming to get a stock price boost by raising money to buy and hoard crypto (MSTR, BMNR shares fell), according to company filings and people familiar with the matter. The exchange’s move could slow the crypto boom that is putting increasingly exotic tokens on mainstream markets. https://tinyurl.com/yc32caex

• AQST shares jumped after saying the FDA will not require an advisory committee meeting to discuss new drug application for Anaphylm; NDA remains on track for FDA PDUFA goal date of January 31, 2026.
• SNY shares fell after late-stage trial data for its experimental inflammatory disease drug amlitelimab disappointed. Sanofi said amlitelimab met all main goals in the Phase III study, showing statistically significant improvements in skin clearance and disease severity compared with placebo after 24 weeks…but the data looked weak against its best-selling med Dupixent, which is due to lose patent protection in 2031. (NKTR shares benefit from data).
• In Managed care: shares of CNC, MOH slid, led lower by Medicaid comments by ELV at Wells Fargo conference saying that Medicaid costs in Q3 are trending slightly higher than anticipated, while also flags weaker Medicaid operating margins; said it "no longer expect sequential operating margin improvement in the second half of the year". For 2026, Co expects Medicare Advantage membership to decline by 150,000.

• In Airlines: airlines (AAL, DAL, UAL, LUV, JBLU, ALK) received positive news after President Trump Administration says it will not pursue plan to require airlines to pay passengers when flight disruptions are caused by carriers; JBLU reported results and said Q3 revenue will be better than its original expectations on improved summer travel demand that extended through the recent Labor Day holiday and could carry through the end of 2025.
• In Materials: in lumber, Interfor Corp (IFP.TO) announced earlier to reduce lumber production by 145 mln board feet between September and December of 2025 due to weak market conditions and economic uncertainty; said curtailments impact all regions, Canadian and U.S. operations (shares of RYN, WY, PCH were active on the news).

• LDOS was upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital and raise PT to $210 from $180, underpinned by continued strength and execution in Leidos’ Health Services business, strong defense portfolio positioning, and increased confidence under CEO Tom Bell and the revised strategic direction.
• PSN secures $81 Million C5isr Radar Contract from Army Devcom.
• SAIC shares tumbled as Q2 revs fell -2.7% y/y to $1.77B, missing the $1.86B estimate citing the decrease largely to contract completions and a ramp down in volume on existing contracts and also lowered its Fy rev outlook to $7.25B-$7.33B from prior $7.6B-$7.75B, while upping its year profit view (results weighed on shares of other IT Gov’t service names BAH, CACI, LDOS, KBR).
• SPIR was awarded $2.5M NOAA contract for satellite weather data.

• AI shares stumble following a significant FQ1 miss, consistent with the pre-announcement, which management attributes to the significant sales reorganization and CEO Tom Siebel’s health issues. The co also guided Q2 significantly below, while FY26 guidance was withdrawn.
• ASAN rises after the enterprise work management platform posted second-quarter that topped analysts’ estimates and it raised fiscal 2026 guidance.
• CRM shares slide as Q2 results largely came in ahead of expectations, fueled by solid performance in core clouds, steady Data Cloud and AI momentum; ARR grew ~$200M q/q (120% y/y) to $1.2B across 6,000 paid deals to date. From a guidance perspective, the top-line wrapped the Street for FQ3/FY26 (raised low-end FY26), pressuring shares despite the FCF growth outlook for FY26 moving higher.
• CRDO reported Q1 results well above consensus ($191M/$0.35), and guided OctQ to $235M, ~15% above consensus $202M as fourth hyperscaler now ramping and expected to >10% for F26E, and FY26 guided up ~120% y/y and maintaining strong growth at >100% y/y top line.
• FIG shares fall: delivered relatively in-line Q2 results with revenue (+41% y/y) coming in-line with consensus and profitability coming in modestly below…but while revenue growth sustained above 40% y/y in Q2, Q3 and FY25 guidance for growth of 33% and 36.5% y/y, respectively, likely fell short of expectations. Recall Figma’s IPO was priced at $33 per share recently, giving the company a valuation of $19.34 billion.
• SNOW shares slumped following departure of its CFO.
• In Optical & Equipment space: CIEN shares jumped after Q3 revenue rises 29.4% y/y to $1.22B, beating analyst expectations of $1.175B on better adj net income $96.2M vs. est. $77M while guides Q4 revenue $1.24B-$1.32B above consensus $1.21B and anticipates Q4 adjusted gross margin of 42% to 43%.
• In Computer Hardware: HPE posted revenue beat expectations due to a $480M contribution from Juniper paired with AI Server strength, though OI margins missed broadly; raised its fiscal-year forecast for revenue growth to 14% to 16%, up from prior guidance of 7% to 9%.
• In Telecom: CHTR, speaking at Bank America Conference, said expects Q3 to be more challenging than Q4 and notes broadband market continues to be competitive space.
• In Semiconductors: AVGO earnings tonight after the bell the big name on earnings docket; HDD/memory names STX, WDC each hit all-time highs, surging for the 9^th time in 10 days.